Philippine government negotiators and communist rebels will begin a fresh round of peace talks in Italy on Thursday aimed at ending one of Asia’s longest rebellions.
MB FILE – Peace talks representatives pose for posterity. Take note that Dureza and Sison changed sides./Photo by Rocky Nazareno (MB File) | Manila Bulletin
His government has said it wants to sign a peace pact by August, but the communists warned on Tuesday a peace deal was unlikely before 2019.
Here are key questions and answers on the rebellion, and what to expect during the week-long talks in Rome, which begin on Thursday:
Who are the rebels?
Inspired by China’s Mao Zedong and schooled in Marxist thought, university intellectuals set up the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) in December 1968, and its guerrilla unit, the New People’s Army (NPA), the following year.
The guerrillas say they are waging a “national democratic revolution” to overthrow a capitalist system in the former American colony.
Why does the rebellion exist?
Poverty is the chief reason with the Philippines having one of the biggest rich-poor divides in Asia. About 22 percent of the nation’s 100 million people live below the poverty line, according to official data.
How great a security threat are they?
At least 30,000 people have died in the conflict, according to the military. It estimates the NPA has about 4,000 fighters, down from a peak of 26,000 in the 1980s. They remain particularly active in rural areas of the archipelago, where they are well known for extorting money from local businesses. Their regular attacks on police and military forces also occasionally reach into urban areas.
In 2002, the US State Department designated the communist party and the NPA foreign terrorist organisations.
Where do the peace talks stand now?
The talks were launched in Norway in August last year after Duterte organised the release of 18 high-ranking rebel leaders from jail as a goodwill gesture.
Both sides agreed then to a temporary ceasefire.
But after two rounds of talks focused on relatively easy issues, negotiators will in Rome start looking at some of the toughest and most complicated issues. These involve political, economic and constitutional reforms that are at the heart of the communists’ grievances.
A more immediate headache is a row over the communists’ demand that the government release 434 jailed rebels. Duterte has refused to free them until the rebels agree to a permanent ceasefire. The communists in turn insist the prisoners must be released before they agree to a permanent ceasefire.
What can happen in Rome?
The government has said it will be pushing for the signing of the permanent ceasefire, but chief rebel negotiator Fidel Agcaoili said on Tuesday that prospect was “growing dim” because of the prisoner issue.
The two sides will also try to reconcile their different versions of the major reforms.
The government will also table concrete proposals for ending armed hostilities and demobilising the rebel armed force.
What do the communists want to end the rebellion?
Land reform to free millions of landless Filipino farm hands from what they describe as “semifeudal” bondage.
A government takeover of key economic sectors that they believe would build up the country’s tiny industrial sector, creating jobs to end poverty.
A coalition with a government shorn of the military and economic influence of the United States, the former colonial power and key defence ally.
Is a final peace achievable, and when?
The government said in August last year it was aiming for a final peace pact within 9-12 months.
However the communists said Tuesday they would need at least two more years after negotiators agreed on the major economic and political reforms before even beginning “serious discussions” on a final peace pact.
But, while there are many obstacles, the communists understand their best chance for securing most of their goals are during the six-year term of Duterte, who has railed against the United States and sought closer relations with China.
Duterte has already laid the foundations for a potential coalition government by filling the cabinet posts for agrarian reform, social welfare and the anti-poverty commission with communists.
http://news.mb.com.ph/2017/01/17/explainer-on-philippine-communist-peace-talks/
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