From the Philippine News Agency (Apr 8):
3 possible scenarios as PHL awaits resolution of arbitration case vs China -- Justice Carpio
Three possible scenarios were detailed by Associate Justice
Antonio Carpio as the Philippines
awaits the resolution of its case questioning China's Nine-Dash Line.
The case is now being handled by the UN Permanent Court of
Arbitration which is based in The
Hague, Netherlands.
In the first scenario, the Tribunal declares the Nine-Dash
Line void; Scarborough Shoal generates only a territorial sea which is a
traditional fishing ground of Filipino fishermen and the Tribunal does not rule
on all other issues.
Possible ramifications of this ruling means that in the
northern sector, the Philippines has full 200 nautical mile exclusive economic
zone (EEZ) except for territorial sea of Scarborough Shoal; Filipino fishermen
can exclusively fish within this EEZ; within territorial sea of Scarborough
Shoal, Filipino fishermen can also fish together with Chinese fishermen;
In the southern sector, China/Taiwan can still claim that
Itu Aba generates an EEZ that overlaps with Palawan's
EEZ; in the southern sector, the legal dispute continues in the maritime zone
within 200 nautical mile around Itu Aba, which includes a small part of Reed
Bank;
Maritime space under legal dispute between the Philippines and China
is drastically reduced from over 531,000 square kilometers to only about 23,000
square kilometers(excluding the territorial seas of the disputed islands);
freedom of navigation and freedom of over-flight, outside the territorial sea
and territorial airspace, in the South China Sea
are reinforced.
But Carpio said China is not expected to comply
with Tribunal's ruling unless there is a strong world opinion that forces her
to comply, and the Chinese people realize their historic claim has no basis.
To offset this, the magistrate said the Philippines can file
a new arbitration case specifically raising as issue that Itu Aba does not
generate an EEZ, and seeking confirmation of features identified as LTEs (low
tide elevations);
Encourage Vietnam
and Malaysia
to join the arbitration;
Make an educational/media campaign worldwide that the
Nine-Dash Line cannot be the source of maritime claims per ruling of the
Tribunal;
Diplomatic campaign in the UN/ASEAN/EU/worldwide to demand
that China comply with the Tribunal's ruling and abandon the Nine-Dash Line as
a claim to maritime zones; cite Taiwan's position;
Seek formal declaration with Vietnam,
Malaysia and Brunei that
none of the islands/high tide elevations in the Spratlys generate an EEZ;
Delimit with Malaysia
the EEZ/ECS boundary in the southern sector; delimitation will not affect the Sabah claim;
Delimit with Vietnam
the ECS boundary in the southern sector.
While the second scenario, which Carpio calls the best for
the Philippines, the
Tribunal declares the Nine-Dash-Line void; Itu Aba does not generate an EEZ;
confirms the status of LTEs identified by the Philippines; Scarborough Shoal
generates only a territorial sea which is a traditional fishing ground of
Filipino fishermen.
Ramifications for these include in the northern sector, the
Philippines has a full 200 nautical EEZ excluding the territorial sea of
Scarborough Shoal; Filipino fishermen can exclusively fish within this EEZ;
within the territorial sea of Scarborough Shoal, Filipino fishermen can also
fish together with Chinese fishermen;
In the Southern sector, Palawan
has a full 200 nautical mile EEZ, excluding the territorial seas around the
islands/high tide elevations in the Spratlys;
LTEs within the Philippines EEZ, like Mischief Reef, and
LTEs within Philippines ECS (extended continental shelf), like Subi Reef, form
part of the country's submerged continental shelf; and only the nation can
erect structures on such LTEs;
Maritime space under dispute between the Philippines and China is reduced from over 531,000
square kilometers to just about 1,551 square kilometers of territorial sea
around every Spratly island/high tide elevation and Scarborough Shoal;
China is
not expected to comply with the Tribunal's ruling unless there is a strong
world opinion that forces China
to comply, and the Chinese people realize their historic claim has no basis.
To preserve the Philippine advantage, Carpio said the
country should still conduct educational/media campaign worldwide stressing
that the Nine-Dash-Line cannot be a source of maritime claims per ruling of the
Tribunal;
Diplomatic campaign in the UN/ASEAN/EU/worldwide to demand
that China comply with the Tribunal's ruling and abandon the Nine-Dash Line as
a claim to maritime zones; cite Taiwan's position;
Delimit with Malaysia
the EEZ/ECS boundary in the Southern sector; the Sabah
claim is not affected;
Delimit with Vietnam
the ECS boundary in the Southern sector.
While scenario three, which is the worse case for the Philippines, is
that the Tribunal does not rule on the validity of the Nine-Dash-Line; declares
that Itu Aba generates an EEZ; Scarborough Shoal generates only a territorial
sea; does not rule on other issues.
Consequences of this ruling is that China will enforce the
Nine-Dash Line as its national boundaries; and this will result in the possible
blocking and harassing of Philippine, Vietnamese, Malaysian efforts to supply
the islands they occupy in the Spratlys; the legal dispute over the waters
enclosed by the Nine-Dash Line continues;
Carpio said that the only defense coastal nations like the Philippines can
offer against Chinese encroachment is to acquire warships, warplanes and
missiles; naval arms race will accelerate;
This will also prompt the US and its allies will regularly
conduct FONOPS (freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea/Spratlys;
However, this is will force China oppose FONOPS, creating
more tension.
Maritime space under dispute will remain over 531,000 square
kilometers.
Carpio added that with these developments, the Philippines
must strengthen substantially its military defenses and alliances;
Invite Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei to sign an international
conventiondeclaring the Spratlys an International Marine Protected Area
(enclosing the Spratlys up to 12 nautical miles from the outermost islands/high
tide elevations);
Invite also China to join; open the convention to accession
by other states and by non-state parties so Taiwan and NGOs can also join;
Seek formal declaration with Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei
that none of the islands/high tide elevations in the Spratlys generates an EEZ;
Delimit with Malaysia the EEZ/ECS boundary in the Southern
sector; Sabah claim is not affected;
Delimit with Vietnam the ECS boundary in the Southern sector.
http://www.pna.gov.ph/index.php?idn=1&sid=&nid=1&rid=874588
