Sunday, July 3, 2016

Why China Won’t Stop Island Building in the South China Sea

From The Diplomat (Jul 1): Why China Won’t Stop Island Building in the South China Sea (By Frederick Kuo)

China’s island building is aimed at securing a weak link in its maritime trade networks.

As the U.S. navy and rival Asian claimants respond to China’s building of military-grade infrastructure on disputed islands, heightened risks of conflict raise alarm bells over destabilization in a vital arena of global trade. The world awaits the deliberation of the Hague on the matter, but its decision will have little impact on China’s actions, which are anchored by Beijing’s grand ambitions to secure an unrivaled commercial empire throughout Eurasia and Africa.

The tropical warm waters of the South China Sea betray an idyllic calm, but the region has become the center of a great international flashpoint. Developing what were once half submerged reefs into sizable islands, China has frenetically reclaimed and built 3200 acres of new territory on the islands within its control. In addition, it has built sizable military and civilian infrastructure that have decisively tipped the fragile balance of power in the hotly contested region.

China’s ambitions have provoked the ire of rival claimants like the Philippines and Vietnam, while stoking tensions with the United States. However, despite loud condemnation, China has refused to bend to pressure, and instead has pushed forward with its ambitious plans of power projection, causing many to fear the terrible fallout that may occur due in an atmosphere fraught with heightened tensions.

A cursory analysis of China’s growing trade and investment patterns points to two primary motivations underpinning its South China Sea strategy: China’s commercial ambitions and its relative naval weakness.

China’s growing commercial empire, bolstered by trade with Europe, Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia, possesses one glaring weak link — that much of its maritime borders are vulnerable to the control of foreign powers. This reality guarantees that tensions in the region will undoubtedly continue to rise, though the chances of full blown conflict remain slim.

After two decades of rapid industrialization and economic growth, China has emerged as the world’s largest trading nation, registering a combined volume of over $4.3 trillion dollars in 2015. Chinese outward foreign investment has soared from a trickle ten years ago to nearly $120 billion in 2015. China has become the largest trading partner in Africa, with trade passing $160 billion in 2015. China ranks as the second largest trading partner to Europe, with trade standing near $580 billion annually. Meanwhile, China has also made significant headway in trade and investment into the Middle East and South Asia.

In order to consolidate and link its massive and continually expanding commercial empire, China has promoted the strategy of “One Belt, One Road,” a resurrection of the ancient Silk Road. If it succeeds, this project will fundamentally shift the global balance of power in China’s favor, substantially building an infrastructure of trade throughout Eurasia and Africa with all roads ultimately leading to China.

With current projected spending surpassing $1.3 trillion, the new Silk Road will link over 60 nations throughout Eurasia and Africa with a combined population of 4.4 billion through a colossal number of infrastructure projects from rail and pipelines to ports and maritime infrastructure. China’s brimming ambition seeks to facilitate the development of cohesive infrastructure linking three continents and uniting them into a trade empire unrivaled in history.

China’s One Belt, One Road project is composed of two primary routes. One is a land route that winds through the great Eurasian hinterland linking China with its ancient trading partners in Central Asia and the Middle East and then on to Europe. The other route is the maritime route, which runs through the South China Sea and the Malacca Straits, and onward through the Indian Ocean to Africa and to the Middle East and Europe.

China’s rapidly growing commercial empire presents it with immense security challenges. While China has traditionally been a continental power, it has not fielded a great navy since the 15th century when Zheng He’s gargantuan fleet sailed to Africa. In the modern era, China went from defeat at the hands of Western gunboats to imperial collapse and then the chaos of the Maoist era. Since China is a latecomer to the modern arena of great power politics, it has found its maritime borders to be dominated by foreign powers, from the United States to regional Asian states.

This fact leaves China’s colossal investments and trade vulnerable to the whims of foreign navies, a situation which is the cause of anxiety in Beijing. This insecurity has driven China’s substantial focus in modernizing and upgrading its navy, which now boasts of one aircraft carrier, with another currently being built and two more planned in the next decade.

In the South China Sea, China’s claims have existed since at least the Republican era. However, beset by domestic problems, China has been slow to enforce its claims. China’s recent actions reflect a significant increase in investment on the contested islands within its control. These are all part and parcel of China’s attempts to establish a beachhead of control in order to monitor and protect the trade routes that it increasingly depends on.

To put it simply, China’s obsession with building up fortifications in the South China Sea is driven by its fear of losing control over its vital trade routes and thus having its national interests effectively denied by use of naval force. As China moves forward with its ambitious Silk Road project, its sense of urgency has kept pace to make sure it will have the naval infrastructure to protect its commercial interests from the South China Sea to Djibouti, where China has established its first overseas military base.

Inarguably, China’s continued development of its naval capabilities in the South China Sea, through which $5.3 trillion of global trade passes each year, has raised the ire of rival claimants to the Spratly and Paracel Islands. China has managed to push both the Philippines and Vietnam into the arms of the United States. The Philippines have signed new pacts with the U.S. navy, upgrading its presence in its military bases, while Obama’s recent visit to Vietnam signaled a new era of cooperation with the lifting of the arms embargo. In addition, American jets continually cross into spheres around China’s artificial islands, which heighten the possibilities of potential conflict.

At the same time, a “hot war” with the U.S. navy would be potentially disastrous for China’s economy. Therefore, the likelihood of China taking over the islands controlled by rival claimants and exacerbating tensions are low. China does not need to take more islands in order to establish effective dominance of the waters. China’s control of this key gateway can be secured by the expansion of its current islands and their increasing fortifications. Therefore, Beijing will likely continue to walk a fine balance where it can incrementally gain the strategic upper hand without letting tensions spill over into a direct military confrontation.

Clearly, these events ultimately hurt China’s attempts at promoting an image of its “peaceful rise” and itself as a partner for development in Southeast Asia. However, despite frayed relationships with the Philippines and Vietnam, and a potentially disastrous military clash with the U.S. navy, there is little doubt that these risks are a price that China is willing to pay in order to establish effective control over vital maritime links to its vast commercial empire beyond the Indian Ocean.  Therefore, the region is likely to head towards more tensions before a status quo will be reached.

[Frederick Kuo is a San Francisco-based published writer. His writing focuses on current events and economic analyses within a social and historical framework. His articles have been published on Quartz, The National Interest, Citymetric, SF Examiner and much more. You can follow his writing on his website amberpen.com.]

http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/why-china-wont-stop-island-building-in-the-south-china-sea/

Is the South China Sea the Stage for the Next World War?

From The National Interest (Jul 3): Is the South China Sea the Stage for the Next World War? (By Zidny Ilman)

The guided-missile destroyer USS Mason fires its 5-inch light weight gun during a U.S.-China counter piracy exercise. Flickr/U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/U.S. Fifth Fleet

It's not just about the rocks.

Recent skirmishes in the South China Sea between the Indonesian navy and China’s coast guard have reinvigorated public interest towards the region. Some applauded Indonesia’s resolve in defending her rightful maritime territory. However, some are still left wondering over China’s motives in provoking such regional conflict—including with Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines. How can one explain why China risks a major war that could potentially drag the United States in for a bunch of uninhabited rocks?

Some say they are fighting for control over major oil and gas reserves in those seas. But this seems not to be the case. After all, great powers have rarely fought one another in a major war over economic resources in modern history, if at all. Or is it because of China’s nine-dash line? For sure, one needs to differentiate the means, ways and ends of phenomena. The nine-dash line is a means that China uses to justify its policy ends. But it does not explain the endgame it wants to achieve—therefore, it cannot be used to explain its motives in the South China Sea.

Let’s take a look back at the twentieth century. World War I started when Austria-Hungary declared war on and attacked Serbia. So, does it mean that World War I was caused by Austria-Hungary’s invasion? No. Austria-Hungary did start the war, but it was certainly not caused by it. The cause of the war was the great powers’ concern about the prevalent regional order in Europe—and their wish to alter it.

The Germans (together with Austria-Hungary) looked uncomfortably at the shifting balance of power towards the Franco-Russian (and possibly British) alliance. They saw the erosion of Germany’s dominance over the European order while looking for a way to reverse the trend. The French and the Russians, boosted by newly gained power, had been humiliated during the German-led political order before and were also looking for a way to punish Germany along with her allies.

Similar to World War I, World War II started with an invasion, when Hitler invaded Poland. However, Poland was not the cause of the Anglo-French and German rivalry escalating to a war in 1939. Instead, the Anglo-French were concerned over the shifting balance of power towards Germany’s favor and sought to prevent it from going further in that direction. That determination finally led to war over Poland’s survival.

Put simply, what Serbia and Poland have in common with the South and East China Seas is that they served as a venue of great-power rivalry. But they are definitely not the cause of that rivalry.

To understand the cause of the current U.S.-China rivalry, one needs to see the history and strategic picture of the Asian region. Put simply, one needs to see beyond the South China Sea. Following the defeat of Imperial Japan in World War II, the United States has been the sole great power that can project its power throughout the region. Since that day, the region has come under American-led regional order. Having only a fraction of the United States’ power, other states in the region accepted American primacy.
 
What is happening today is that China has gathered enough power and is becoming powerful enough to match (or even surpass) America’s ability to project power throughout much of Asia. Power means leadership throughout history and with its newly gained power, China wants a bigger role in regional leadership. For sure, though it seems weird for most people, anyone who carefully study history will concede that this is a normal—though arguably regrettable—state behavior.

One might point a finger towards Japan and Germany as comparisons—both of whose rise of power in recent times does not correspond with a regional crisis that risks regional war—and, therefore, accuse China’s behavior as not normal. However, history once again shows that both states are the anomaly—not China.

As Singaporean leader Lee Kuan Yew once remarked, “Unlike other emergent countries, China wants to be China and accepted as such, not as an honorary member of the West.” It is clear from his observation that China has set its sights on displacing the United States as the dominant power that will dictate the regional order in the Asia region. This is not to say that we must agree with or accept all China wants to do. We may dislike how our rival thinks and behaves, but we have to understand them. Without understanding how China thinks, a plausible solution to the current conflict will be hard to devise.

China’s aspiration for greater regional leadership is unfortunately met with fierce challenges from the United States as well as other regional great powers such as Japan and India. Following the rise of China’s assertiveness, the United States introduced the term “pivot” (later rebranded as “rebalancing”) while her ally, Japan, has reinterpreted her constitution, allowing Tokyo to be more active both politically and militarily abroad. India, for her part, introduced an eastward-facing policy while trying to strengthen her maritime power to prevent Chinese incursion into the Indian Ocean.

Facing the prospect of containment (instead of accommodation), the question of paramount importance for China’s leaders is: how can China displace the United States (and, therefore, U.S.-led regional order) from Asia?

China seems to believe that the U.S.-led regional order is based on the U.S.-led political security regional order. This political security order in turn is based on the U.S. regional alliance system, which is known as hub-and-spoke system, encompassing Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines and Thailand. This alliance system grants the United States access to forward bases that ensures her ability to rapidly project her power throughout the region whenever crisis erupts.

Without such bases, the United States won’t be able to effectively project forces and, therefore, will have only marginal influence in a crisis. Thus, curtailing the United States’ capability to respond to a regional crisis means much less U.S. influence upon regional order.

So, as the logic goes, breaking this alliance system will lead to a breakup of the U.S.-led regional order. Thus, the question now becomes: how can China break up the U.S. alliance system?

Alliance, by its nature, means an insurant. By inking an alliance, the United States has assured her allies that she will help defend them in times of crisis. Just like a commercial insurance company, the success of the business rests on the insurer’s credibility. As long as U.S. allies believe that Washington will fulfill her words, the alliance system will hold up. However, if U.S. allies do not believe her words—thereby doubting the credibility of her words—the alliance system will unravel.

A new question emerges as a consequence: how can China damage U.S. credibility so much that it will lead to the unraveling of its regional alliance system? For sure, there is no better way to damage one’s credibility than proving that one is unable to fulfill one’s words. Put it another way, China must show U.S. allies that the United States will not come by their side when they need her. That means instigating a conflict with U.S. allies, making sure they will call for U.S. assistance and, at the same time, making sure that the United States will not fulfill her insurance policy.

It is a dangerous game to play for sure. Beijing must do its best to make sure the United States will not come by her allies’ side or else it will face a war with the United States—a grim possibility given both sides’ possession of nuclear weapons.

In order to succeed, China must be sure that the conflict she is instigating is important enough for U.S. allies that they will call for U.S. assistance, but that the conflict per se is not important enough from the U.S. perspective, making it highly unlikely for her to fulfill her insurance. Put it simply, China must make sure that the conflict per se represents high stakes from U.S. allies’ perspectives while a negligible one from the U.S. perspective.

A bunch of uninhabited rocks in the South China Sea (and East China Sea) will do just fine. It is a matter of sovereignty and territorial integrity—which can hardly be compromised—from the perspective of U.S. allies. While from the U.S. perspective, those rocks represent no more than what they are; that is, rocks. Those rocks have little strategic value and, thus, in themselves have little relevance for U.S. national interests.

Entering the fourth year of China’s surge of assertiveness, it seems that China’s strategy has achieved some success. In South China Sea, U.S. responses are lackluster while showing a degree of indecisiveness. Arguably, the most infamous among those is the United States’ failure to properly assist the Philippines in protecting its sovereignty in Scarborough Shoal. However, responding to such a crisis with more resolve entails more risks. For sure, a lower-risk option is available in the form of accommodating China’s aspiration by trying to develop some form of joint leadership in the Asian region. While it is not too late for the United States to reverse the negative trend, she surely has much to do.

[Zidny Ilman currently works in Pacivis (Global Civil Society Research Center) of University of Indonesia. You can follow him on Facebook and Twitter.]

[Image: The guided-missile destroyer USS Mason fires its 5-inch light weight gun during a U.S.-China counter piracy exercise. Flickr/U.S. Naval Forces Central Command/U.S. Fifth Fleet]

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-south-china-sea-the-stage-the-next-world-war-16833

AFP wants Abu Sayyaf defeated within the year

From GMA News (Jul 3): AFP wants Abu Sayyaf defeated within the year

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) will try to neutralize the Abu Sayyaf Group within the year, a military official said Sunday.

"That is our objective, that is our goal," Army Chief Lt. Gen. Eduardo Año said in a phone interview.

This comes after new AFP chief Lt. Gen. Ricardo Visaya assured on Friday that the military of government resources for operations after noting that he wants non-stop operations against the terrorist group.

"The message of the chief of staff is there will be 24/7 operations against the Abu Sayyaf and then resources will be poured into the areas of the Abu Sayyaf," Año said.

"The chief of staff wants to finish off the Abu Sayyaf within this term," he added.

Visaya will reach the mandatory retirement age of 56 on December 8.

Asked whether this was feasible, Año said the Abu Sayyaf Group can be defeated within the year as President Rodrigo Duterte has also ordered this as one of the priorities of his administration.

"What is needed really is focus. With the commitment of support that will be provided by the President and with his direction and order to end the Abu Sayyaf, we can accomplish that," he said.

The Abu Sayyaf currently holds about a dozen hostages — including seven Indonesians — in the Sulu Sea area.

The Indonesian tugboat crew members were abducted last month. Philippine authorities said that the Abu Sayyaf has demanded 20 million Malaysian ringgit in exchange for their freedom.

"We want to restrict their movement and at the same time engage them decisively. We want to corner them and face us in a decisive encounter, decisive engagement," Año said. 

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/572257/news/nation/afp-wants-abu-sayyaf-defeated-within-the-year

No-ransom policy under Duterte

From the Philippine Star (Jul 4): No-ransom policy under Duterte

The Duterte administration is ready to talk to the Abu Sayyaf to secure the release of hostages, but the government will continue to pursue a no-ransom policy, officials said yesterday. 

Presidential peace adviser Jesus Dureza said he was informed that a certain Abu Sayyaf member named Abu Rami wanted to talk to him about Norwegian hostage Kjartan Sekkingstad, who was kidnapped on Samal Island with two Canadians and a Filipina last September.

“I got word from someone in Zamboanga City this morning that one Abu Rami allegedly from ASG (Abu Sayyaf group) wanted to talk to me directly about the remaining Norwegian hostage,” Dureza said in a statement yesterday.

“I told the person that I was ready and willing to talk with anyone for the release of hostages and save lives provided that it would not be about ransom,” he added.

 Dureza said he gave the person a secure phone number where he and the Abu Sayyaf representative can talk. He is still waiting for the bandit group to contact him as of this writing.

Previous reports identified Abu Rami as the spokesperson for the Abu Sayyaf. 

Communications Secretary Martin Andanar said the government would continue to talk to the kidnappers until the last captive is released.
 
When asked whether the Duterte administration considers the Abu Sayyaf as plain bandits or terrorists, Andanar said: “Secretary Jess Dureza has said that whatever was stated by United Nations with regard to the treatment of the Abu Sayyaf would be the stand of our government.”

The United Nations Security Council said in 2001 that the Abu Sayyaf has links with the international terrorist network al-Qaeda.

Sekkingstad, Canadians John Ridsdel and Robert Hall and Filipina Marites Flor were abducted by Abu Sayyaf bandits in Samal Island in Davao region in September last year.

The extremists beheaded Ridsdel last April and executed Hall last month because their ransom demands were not met. The body of Hall was found in Sulu last Saturday.
Flor was released last June 24 after a series of negotiations.

Last month, Duterte said the abductions in Mindanao have to stop because they have given the Philippines “a very bad image.”

 “I don’t want to pick a fight with anybody but there will be a time. I have to confront Abu Sayyaf. It’s not yet forthcoming,” Duterte said in a speech delivered in Davao City hours after the release of Flor.

“There will be reckoning one of these days,” he added.

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/07/04/1599358/no-ransom-policy-under-duterte

Abu Sayyaf: We are going to behead Norwegian hostage

From the Philippine Daily Inquirer (Jul 4): Abu Sayyaf: We are going to behead Norwegian hostage

The Abu Sayyaf has announced that it will be beheading its hostage, Norwegian Kjartan Sekkingstad, anytime Monday if Presidential Peace Adviser Jesus Dureza insists on the non-payment of ransom.

“There is no more ultimatum, we are going to behead this Norwegian anytime today,” said Abu Sayyaf spokesperson Abu Rami, who called a couple of journalists here Sunday night.

Rami said the beheading will be done following reports of Dureza’s pronouncement of government’s no-ransom policy.

The Abu Sayyaf has been demanding P300 million in exchange for Sekkingstad’s freedom.

Rami said they were aware that ransom was already set for delivery, and they were just waiting for someone to deliver the money.

Sekkingstad is one of four victims who were taken from a marina in the Island Garden City of Samal in Davao del Norte in November last year.

Rami’s announcement came two days after the body of beheaded Abu Sayyaf kidnap victim, Canadian Robert Hall, was found in Sulu on Saturday morning.

READ: Canadian Robert Hall’s body found in Sulu

Hall was beheaded by the Abu Sayyaf on June 13 after the bandit group failed to receive the ransom money they had demanded. His head was found on the same day in front of the Jolo Cathedral.

Hall was the second kidnap victim the bandits had decapitated after fellow Canadian John Ridsdel, who was killed in April. Filipino Marites Flor was freed on June 24.

READ: Abus mock Duterte, behead Canadian
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/794142/abu-sayyaf-we-are-going-to-behead-norwegian-hostage

Military to focus on disaster response missions

From the Philippine News Agency (Jul 4): Military to focus on disaster response missions

The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) will focus on its humanitarian assistance and disaster relief response missions, newly appointed AFP chief Lt. Gen. Ricardo Visaya said.

"We will consolidate and ready our forces to become first responders and take proactive roles to protect our environment and mitigate the effects of climate change. we will then enhance our efforts to work closely with other agencies non government organizations and the private sector to firm up our mechanisms to realize these advocacies," Visaya said.

The Philippines is located in the so-called "Pacific Ring of Fire" and has recorded more casualties and devastation brought about by national disasters and calamities.

Aside from improving competencies in combat, soldiers would also be involved in the crackdown on criminality and terrorism, after Pres. Rodrigo Duterte has ordered the military to join the anti-crime campaign.

"As I always intimate to our troops in my numerous field units we must instill in ourselves the desire to excel in all our endeavors and to continue our quest for excellence even beyond the call of duty. Every soldier is a fighter, a law enforcer, a rescuer, and above all a reformed man," he said.

In doing the job, he assured that they will "always be guided by the principles of transparency accountability and adherence to human rights, international humanitarian law and the rule of law."

"These values will never be lost despite massive change in the way we think and operate," Visaya added.

Visaya is a member of Philippine Military Academy Class of 1983. He replaced Lt. Gen. Glorioso Miranda who served as acting AFP chief last April.

http://www.pna.gov.ph/index.php?idn=1&sid=&nid=1&rid=900994

CPP heeds Duterte’s call for cooperation in war vs prohibited drugs

From MindaNews (Jul 3): CPP heeds Duterte’s call for cooperation in war vs prohibited drugs
 
The Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) has heeded the call of President Rodrigo Duterte for cooperation in the war against prohibited drugs, claiming they have long waged an anti-illegal drugs campaign.

“In positive response, the CPP reiterates its standing order for the NPA (New People’s Army) to carry out operations to disarm and arrest the chieftains of the biggest drug syndicates, as well as other criminal syndicates involved in human rights violations and destruction of the environment. The NPA is ready to give battle to those who will resist arrest with armed violence,” it said.

During Friday’s turn over of command at the Armed Forces of the Philippines in Quezon City, Duterte, who vowed to end criminality and drugs within the first three to six months of his term, urged the NPA to use their “kangaroo courts” to prosecute and kill the drug traffickers to expedite the solution on illegal drugs.

“Well, nakikinig naman ‘yung mga NPA, nasa pwesto pa naman kayo. Ano kaya ‘yung korte nito,‘yung korte ninyo. Korte ninyo, I don’t know if it’s a kangaroo or otherwise. E, patayin nalang ninyo para mas madali ang masolusyon ang problema natin” (Well, the NPA is listening, you’re still in place. What if your courts, I don’t know if it’s a kangaroo or otherwise. E, just kill them so we can easily solve the problem).

In a statement published on July 2 on ndfp.org, the CPP said they have long waged a campaign against illegal drugs by disarming and arresting for prosecution and just punishment the most notorious criminals who are also involved in big illegal drug operations.

It said they employed armed violence against biggest illegal drug traffickers and used a cultural revolution among the masses to detest illegal-drug use.

The statement also noted that the CPP shares with Duterte the reprehension against illegal drugs and its grave effects on the Filipino people.

“The proliferation of illegal drugs, especially shabu, and the concomitant rise in incidents of violent crime serves the perpetuation of the ruling system,” it said, adding that the biggest and most notorious drug traffickers “are those in the top echelons of the AFP and PNP, who are also in cohorts, with key officials in the local and national bureaucracy. It is apparent that President Duterte is fully aware of such.”

The CPP claimed that they were successful in their fight against drugs within their territories, what with their “vigilance and militance” in opposition to the entry and operations of the illegal drugs.

It said the most recent case is that of a chief of police in Davao Oriental province who was arrested by the NPA last May 29 and is currently under detention and undergoing investigation for involvement in the illegal drug trade.

In a statement dated June 1, the Regional Operations Command of the NPA in Southern Mindanao said they took Chief Insp. Arnold Ongachen, chief of police of Governor Generoso town in Davao Oriental. The NPA said they confiscated from Ongachen a sachet of shabu.

In his press conference on May 31, Duterte called on the NPA to release the police chief kung wala namang kasalanan (if he did not commit a crime), release (him) immediately.”

He added that if the NPA does not release the police chief, he would “go to the mountains” to get him from the NPA.

But Duterte changed his mind on June 2, following the NPA’s claim that a sachet was seized from Ongachen.

“Sorry for that guy. I leave his fate to the NPA,” Duterte told a press conference.

He said the NPA commander asked him what to do with the police chief. He said he told him “you have a kangaroo court there, you try him and sentence him to 20 years hard labor.”

In its July 2 statement, the CPP, detested the use of “kangaroo court” in reference to the their judicial system, claiming they observe due process.

Resumption of peace talks

On the last day of the two-day “Hugpong sa kalinaw” at the Davao City Recreation Center on Tuesday,  CPP founder Jose Maria Sison, in a video message, announced the resumption of formal peace talks between Government of the Philippines and the National Democratic Front sometime third week this month.

The resumption was made possible following the June 14 and 15 talks between Sison and the NDF peace panel led by Luis Jalandoni with then returning Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process Jesus Dureza and incoming government chief negotiator Silvestre Bello III.

The parties agreed to resume the formal peace talks by the third week of January.

Sison said the resumption will be most likely on the third or fourth week, pending the release of their 21 consultants.

“We need more time with regards to the release of the consultants,” he said.

In their Joint Statement last month, the parties agreed on a five-point agenda for the July talks: the affirmation of previously signed agreements; accelerated process for negotiations, including the timeline for the completion of the remaining substantive agenda for the talks, socio-economic reforms, political and constitutional reforms, and end of hostilities and disposition of forces; reconstitution of the Joint Agreement on Safety and Immunity Guarantees (JASISG) list; Amnesty Proclamation for the release of all detained political prisoners, subject to concurrence by Congress; and mode of interim ceasefire.

“Let us look forward to the success of the first formal talks in the time of the Duterte government. The success of these will lead to further hard work by the principals, negotiators, consultants, ceasefire monitors and other focused personnel of the negotiating parties and to further inputs and support from all the peace-loving forces and people,” Sison said.

http://www.mindanews.com/top-stories/2016/07/03/cpp-heeds-dutertes-call-for-cooperation-in-war-vs-prohibited-drugs/

Government panel to fly to Norway for CPP talks

From the Manila Bulletin (Jul 4): Government panel to fly to Norway for CPP talks

  

President-elect Rodrigo “Rody” Duterte’s chosen peace panel last month began its informal meeting with Communist Party of the Philippines-New People’s Army-National Democratic Front headed by Jose Ma. Sison in Oslo, Norway. Jesus Dureza, Facebook

Government negotiators will fly to Oslo in Norway next month to resume talks with the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), which have been stalled for four years.
 
Presidential adviser on the peace process Jesus Dureza said yesterday the government panel would be headed by Labor Secretary Silvestre Bello III.

Dureza said it may take some time before CPP founder Jose Maria Sison can return to the Philippines.

“Let us not hurry  because there are still some things to be resolved,” Dureza said.

He added that  if Sison “feels that it’s time for him to go back to the Philippines, then he is already a strong partner for our peace efforts.”

“Definitely, the Philippine government will do its best to assist him in that direction,” Dureza said.

The peace talks were stalled during the Aquino administration after government negotiators said the rebel group insisted on some preconditions before agreeing to negotiate.

Both parties met in Norway in February 2011, but were not able to agree on issues that include the release of detained communist insurgents and the declaration of a ceasefire. The peace talks have not moved since.

Dureza said even if the US has tagged the CPP as a terrorist group, he remains confident that it will not stand in the way of the peace efforts.

“The third party countries, I’m sure they will also provide a way in such that they will not be stumbling blocks but (rather) they will be assisting us in our efforts to bring peace to the land,” he stressed.

He also said that the negotiation is between the Philippine government and the CPP-NPA-NDF (New People’s Army-National Democratic Front) and not between Manila and the US government or other nations.

“So, if at the end of the day, there will be a consensus between the Philippine government and the leadership of the CPP-NPA-NDF, then definitely, the Philippine government will take a position in accordance with what we agree on,” Dureza said.

As for the Muslim rebel groups, he said the government is still in the process of creating a roadmap that may provide a clear direction on unifying the peace efforts with the Muslims and the indigenous people.

http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/07/04/1599357/government-panel-fly-norway-cpp-talks

IN PHOTOS: Turning over to the Duterte administration

From Rappler (Jul 3): IN PHOTOS: Turning over to the Duterte administration

CABINET. President Rodrigo Roa Duterte holds his first Cabinet meeting at the Aguinaldo State Dining Room of the Malacañang Palace.

View the transition ceremonies of incoming Cabinet secretaries and other Duterte-appointed officials in pictures

PARADE AND REVIEW. President Rodrigo Duterte reviews honor guards during the change of command ceremony in Camp Aguinaldo. Acting AFP chief Lt General Glorioso Miranda relinquished his position to new AFP chief Lt General Ricardo Visaya (center). Photo by Francis Malasig/EPA

PARADE AND REVIEW. President Rodrigo Duterte reviews honor guards during the change of command ceremony in Camp Aguinaldo. Acting AFP chief Lt General Glorioso Miranda relinquished his position to new AFP chief Lt General Ricardo Visaya (center). Photo by Francis Malasig/EPA

On Thursday, June 30, it wasn't just President Rodrigo Duterte who took his oath of office but also his appointed Cabinet secretaries whom the president will also count on to bring promised change.

Shortly after his inauguration Duterte presided over his first Cabinet meeting. Among his first orders to his Cabinet officials was to line up like ordinary people when they go on trips.

The following day, the president presided over the turnover of officials of the Philippine National Police and the Armed Forces of the Philippines. Various government agencies likewise held their own turnover ceremonies in their respective departments.

Here are the highlights:
'BATO'. President Duterte promotes the new PNP chief Director General Ronald dela Rosa to the rank of Director General (4-star) from being a Chief Superintendent (1-star) in a ceremony at Camp Crame. Photo by Rey Baniquet/Malacañang PPD
 
'BATO'. President Duterte promotes the new PNP chief Director General Ronald dela Rosa to the rank of Director General (4-star) from being a Chief Superintendent (1-star) in a ceremony at Camp Crame. Photo by Rey Baniquet/Malacañang PPD

DOF TURNOVER. Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez takes over from Cesar Purisima on July 1, 2016. Rappler Photo
 
DOF TURNOVER. Finance Secretary Carlos Dominguez takes over from Cesar Purisima on July 1, 2016. Rappler Photo

At the Bureau of Treasury building in Intramuros on Friday, July 1, outgoing Secretary Cesar Purisima, formally handed over to Carlos Dominguez the reins of the Department of Finance.

During the ceremony, Dominguez gave orders to his team: do work a "litte more creatively" to ensure that economic growth is inclusive.

“The DOF can no longer use its fancy calculations to continue its detachment from the everyday lives of Filipinos. We need to do our job a little differently, a little more creatively,” Dominguez said in his speech.
JUSTICE CHIEF. Newly-installed Department of Justice Secretary Vitaliano Aguirre II and his wife hold back their tears as they attend a thanksgiving mass at the De Las Alas Hall inside the DOJ office. Photo by Ben Nabong/Rappler
 
JUSTICE CHIEF. Newly-installed Department of Justice Secretary Vitaliano Aguirre II and his wife hold back their tears as they attend a thanksgiving mass at the De Las Alas Hall inside the DOJ office. Photo by Ben Nabong/Rappler

On his first day of office, Justice Secretary Vitaliano Aguirre II vowed to act on his marching orders from Duterte and rid the Department of Justice (DOJ) of graft and corruption.

After attending Mass at the DOJ with justice officials and employees, Aguirre held a press conference and said that Duterte had ordered him to transform the DOJ into a graft-free agency, to be part of the fight against illegal drugs, and to prosecute heinous crimes.
TRANSITION. Former environment secretary Ramon Paje hands the flag of the department to Environment Secretary Gina Lopez. Photo by Jee Geronimo/Rappler
 
TRANSITION. Former environment secretary Ramon Paje hands the flag of the department to Environment Secretary Gina Lopez. Photo by Jee Geronimo/Rappler

In her first address as secretary of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Gina Lopez quoted one part of President Rodrigo Duterte's inaugural speech:

"Love of country, subordination of personal interests to the common good, concern and care for the helpless and the impoverished – these are among the lost and faded values that we seek to recover and revitalize as we commence our journey towards a better Philippines."

Lopez went right down to work on Friday, July 1, and her first order of business was to audit all existing mines in the country. The directive, Lopez said, came from Duterte during their first Cabinet meeting on June 30.

The DENR seat was previously offered to the Left during Duterte's first press conference after the elections. The Left was eyeing Bayan Muna party list Representative Carlos Isagani Zarate as its nominee.

10 days later, Duterte changed his plans citing serious and sensitive issues on mining operations, and on June 20, he announced Lopez's appointment in a video release.
From 4, the Left got two departments: Department of Agrarian Reform and the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD).
FARMER. Former Kilusang Magbubukid ng Pilipinas chairperson Rafael Mariano formally became the Duterte administration’s agrarian reform secretary at the turnover ceremony at the department’s central office on July 1. Photo courtesy of Kodao Productions
 
FARMER. Former Kilusang Magbubukid ng Pilipinas chairperson Rafael Mariano formally became the Duterte administration’s agrarian reform secretary at the turnover ceremony at the department’s central office on July 1. Photo courtesy of Kodao Productions

DSWD. Secretary Judy Taguiwalo (right) receives the official flag of the department from outgoing Secretary Corazon Juliano-Soliman at the DSWD Central Office. Photo courtesy of Kodao Productions
 
DSWD. Secretary Judy Taguiwalo (right) receives the official flag of the department from outgoing Secretary Corazon Juliano-Soliman at the DSWD Central Office. Photo courtesy of Kodao Productions

At the DSWD, officials and employees welcomed incoming Secretary Judy Taguiwalo as the new head of the Department.

Outgoing Secretary Corazon Juliano-Soliman officially handed over the helm of leadership to Taguiwalo through the symbolic turnover of the DSWD flag, the DSWD red vest, and the transition report.

In her message, Taguiwalo shared said that under the leadership and overall thrust of Duterte, she intends to make the DSWD an agency with “tunay na malasakit sa mahihirap (genuine compassion for the poor).”

On July 1, Duterte also appointed former Gabriela Women’s party list Representative Liza Maza as lead convenor of the National Anti-Poverty Commission.
Other Cabinet appointees also took over their positions on Friday, July 1.
DOLE. Outgoing Secretary Rosalinda Baldoz hands over the agency flag to newly-installed Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) Secretary Silvester Bello III during a short turnover ceremony at the DOLE main office in Intramuros. Photo by Ben Nabong/Rappler
 
DOLE. Outgoing Secretary Rosalinda Baldoz hands over the agency flag to newly-installed Department of Labor and Employment (DOLE) Secretary Silvester Bello III during a short turnover ceremony at the DOLE main office in Intramuros. Photo by Ben Nabong/Rappler

FOREIGN AFFAIRS. Foreign Affairs Secretary Perfecto R. Yasay Jr receives from outgoing Secretary Jose Rene D. Almendras the flag of the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) in a symbolic turnover ceremony at the Bulwagang Elpidio Quirino, DFA Building. Photo from the DFA Public Information Services Unit
 
FOREIGN AFFAIRS. Foreign Affairs Secretary Perfecto R. Yasay Jr receives from outgoing Secretary Jose Rene D. Almendras the flag of the Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) in a symbolic turnover ceremony at the Bulwagang Elpidio Quirino, DFA Building. Photo from the DFA Public Information Services Unit

NATIONAL DEFENSE. Outgoing Secretary Voltaire Gazmin hands over his Tour of Duty and Technical Report to incoming DND Secretary Delfin Lorenzana in a transition ceremony in Camp Aguinaldo on June 29. Photo from the DND website.
 
NATIONAL DEFENSE. Outgoing Secretary Voltaire Gazmin hands over his Tour of Duty and Technical Report to incoming DND Secretary Delfin Lorenzana in a transition ceremony in Camp Aguinaldo on June 29. Photo from the DND website.

The Department of Energy (DOE) announced through a press release that newly-installed Energy Secretary Alfonso Cusi and former energy secretary Zenaida Monsada will hold their flag-raising and turnover ceremonies on July 4 at the DOE Multi-Purpose Building.

Some agencies also held their respective transitions during the weekend.
IMMIGRATION DEPARTMENT. Newly-installed Bureau of Immigration (BI) Commissioner Jaime Morente address the BI officers and members of the media during a short and informal turnover at their office in Intramuros on July 1. With Morente are outgoing BI commissioner Ronaldo Geron and DOJ secretary Vitaliano Aguirre II. Photo by Ben Nabong/Rappler
 
IMMIGRATION DEPARTMENT. Newly-installed Bureau of Immigration (BI) Commissioner Jaime Morente address the BI officers and members of the media during a short and informal turnover at their office in Intramuros on July 1. With Morente are outgoing BI commissioner Ronaldo Geron and DOJ secretary Vitaliano Aguirre II. Photo by Ben Nabong/Rappler

LTO. Newly-installed Land Transportetion Office (LTO) director retired General Edgardo Galvante shakes hands with outgoing LTO director Roberto Cabrera during the turnover ceremony at the LTO main office in Quezon City. Photo by Ben Nabong/Rappler
 
LTO. Newly-installed Land Transportetion Office (LTO) director retired General Edgardo Galvante shakes hands with outgoing LTO director Roberto Cabrera during the turnover ceremony at the LTO main office in Quezon City. Photo by Ben Nabong/Rappler

ANTI-DRUG CZAR. Outgoing Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA) chief Arturo Cacdac hands over the agency flag to newly-installed PDEA chief Isidro Lapeña during a short ceremony at their office in Quezon City. Photo by Ben Nabong/Rappler
 
ANTI-DRUG CZAR. Outgoing Philippine Drug Enforcement Agency (PDEA) chief Arturo Cacdac hands over the agency flag to newly-installed PDEA chief Isidro Lapeña during a short ceremony at their office in Quezon City. Photo by Ben Nabong/Rappler

CHANGE OF COMMAND. Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief of Staff Lt. General Ricardo Visaya leads the turnover of command of the Presidential Security Group at the PSG Grandstand in Malacanang Park on July 2, 2016. Incoming PSG chief Lt. General Rolando Joselito D. Bautista (PA) receives the command flag from outgoing commander Rear Admiral Raul Ubando (PN). Photo by Marcelino Pascua/Malacañang PPD
 
CHANGE OF COMMAND. Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief of Staff Lt. General Ricardo Visaya leads the turnover of command of the Presidential Security Group at the PSG Grandstand in Malacanang Park on July 2, 2016. Incoming PSG chief Lt. General Rolando Joselito D. Bautista (PA) receives the command flag from outgoing commander Rear Admiral Raul Ubando (PN). Photo by Marcelino Pascua/Malacañang PPD

http://www.rappler.com/nation/138378-in-photos-turnover-duterte-administration

Indonesia Hopes for Duterte Role in Releasing Indonesian Hostages

From Tempo.Co (Jul 2): Indonesia Hopes for Duterte Role in Releasing Indonesian Hostages

Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan said that he has been communicating with the new Philippine government in an attempt to release seven Indonesians held hostage in the Philippines.

The newly elected Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, Luhut said, has a firmer stand in addressing this hostage case.

"His stand is different from the one of the former president. Duterte puts more emphasis on the role of Misuari to be Duterte’s counterpart," Luhut said on Friday (1/7).

For the record, Luhut refers to Nur Misuari as a senior group of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), which has connections with Abu Sayyaf.

Misuari was involved in the negotiation process, which saved the lives of 14 Indonesian nationals in previous hostage cases.

"Duterte’s tie with MNLR is closer. Maybe later Misuari will help solve this problem through his followers, or those in the Abu Sayyaf," said Luhut.

Luhut did not deny if the Indonesian military (TNI) I on alert at the border of Indonesia and the Philippines to prepare other options, such as military operations.  However, he added the TNI would not necessarily break through boundaries.

In the meantime, Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said communication between the Indonesian government and Philippine government would not be affected by the new administration of the Philippines.

"Our communication is good. In the future, we hope we can improve it,” Retno said.

http://en.tempo.co/read/news/2016/07/02/055785101/Indonesia-Hopes-for-Duterte-Role-in-Releasing-Indonesian-Hostages