PHL ready for ‘scenarios’ as China protests US presence in disputed sea —DND

From GMA News (Oct 30): PHL ready for ‘scenarios’ as China protests US presence in disputed sea —DND

The Philippines is prepared for "several scenarios" if the US patrols in the South China Sea results in a minor incident that China warned could lead to war, the Department of National Defense said on Friday.

DND spokesman Peter Paul Galvez indicated that the country was somehow prepared for any eventuality if the US presence causes an incident in the disputed waters.

"At this point, I can't really go into operational details. We are always prepared for several scenarios," Galvez said.

The Philippine government has repeatedly admitted that much still needs to be done to make the Armed Forces of the Philippines to be at par with other countries' armed forces.

Also on Friday, China's naval commander told his US counterpart in a teleconference that there was a risk of "a minor incident that sparks war" if the United States continued with its "provocative acts" in the South China Sea.

Admiral Wu Shengli made the comments to US chief of naval operations Admiral John Richardson during a video teleconference on Thursday, according to a Chinese naval statement.

The two officers held talks after a US warship challenged China's territorial assertions in the South China Sea on Tuesday by sailing within 12 nautical miles of one of Beijing's man-made islands in the Spratly archipelago.

"If the United States continues with these kinds of dangerous, provocative acts, there could well be a seriously pressing situation between frontline forces from both sides on the sea and in the air, or even a minor incident that sparks war," the statement paraphrased Wu as saying.

"(I) hope the US side cherishes the good situation between the Chinese and US navies that has not come easily and avoids these kinds of incidents from happening again," Wu said.

Freedom of navigation

Galvez said that the government will always fight for the country's sovereignty and support freedom of navigation especially in the South China Sea.

“We will just continue what we have been doing before, to support all our troops there, our regular activities in the area. So we will just maintain what we have been doing,” Galvez said.

“As long as freedom of navigation and flight in the area is sustained, secured, we believe that is for the stability of the region,” he added.

Still, Galvez said the DND was hopeful that China would remain calm.

Galvez also welcomed the initial ruling of the international tribunal which sided with the Philippines.

“'Yung decision that it has jurisdiction over the case natin it's a very good dev't 'di lang para sa Pilipinas kundi pati sa mga ibang bansa na naniniwala sa UNCLOS. Titingnan natin sa hinaharap kung saan pupunta ito,” Galvez said.

“We are always hopeful at naniniwala tayo sa international laws na susundan ito ng iba't ibang bansa para sa kapakanan ng mundo for peace and stability,” he added.

US-China agreements on encounters

In 2013, a U.S. guided-missile ship veered sharply to avoid a Chinese navy vessel that tried to block its path in the disputed South China Sea, according to the U.S. account.

The next year, the United States said a Chinese fighter jet buzzed within 30 feet (9 meters) of one of its Navy planes, in what the White House called a "deeply concerning provocation."

They are the types of risky encounters that Beijing and Washington have sought to avoid by stepping up efforts to implement a web of military communications agreements.

But the protocols in place are mostly non-binding, contain exceptions, and at times are interpreted differently by the two sides, highlighting the risk of an unwanted escalation of tensions as the United States asserts its naval power more forcefully to counter China's maritime claims.

Washington made its most significant challenge yet to China's claims on Tuesday by sending the USS Lassen guided-missile destroyer through territorial limits China asserts around artificial islands. U.S. officials said it would be the first of regular "freedom of navigation" patrols in the area.

The agreements include the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES), signed in 2014 by China, the United States, and other Western Pacific nations, which sets out rules such as safe speeds and distances, the language to be used in communications, and actions in case a ship becomes disabled.

U.S. military officials say they have helped ensure there have been no further incidents as severe as those involving the USS Cowpens in December 2013 and the August 2014 jet encounter.

No enforcement mechanisms

Chinese state media accused the U.S. ship of deliberately provocative behavior while China dismissed U.S. criticism over the warplane incident, saying its fighter pilot kept a safe distance.

But the protocols have no enforcement mechanisms and contain loopholes, military experts say. The CUES does not, for example, cover coast guard or other civilian vessels that China has increasingly used to back its vast territorial claims.

Some experts also say there is doubt in practice over whether the rules apply to all waters, or only to those recognized by both sides as international -- a potential gray area highlighted by Tuesday's U.S. operation.

"I don't think we could expect these guidelines ... to suffice as an antidote to the potential for danger," said Michael O'Hanlon, a national security expert at the Brookings Institution in Washington, referring to the CUES.

"They're only designed to really avert accidents that might be caused by reckless or somewhat overly assertive navy captains in open waters," O'Hanlon said.

Further to the CUES, the United States and China last year signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) laying out rules of behavior in air and sea encounters. A supplement to that agreement signed by both sides last month addressed everything from the correct radio frequencies to use during distress calls to the wrong physical behaviors to use during crises.

Another agreement created formal rules to govern use of a military crisis hot line, a move that aims to speed top-level communication.

Bonnie Glaser, a senior advisor for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the 2014 MOU applies anywhere U.S. and Chinese military naval and air assets might encounter each other.

"Of course, an aggressive operator could fail to implement them and cause an accident. There is no consequence outlined in the agreement for violating its terms," she said.

The 2014 MOU refers to military vessels' actions "at sea," implying territorial and international waters. CUES also refers to events "at sea."

"The CUES agreement addresses unplanned encounters at sea, regardless of any territorial claims," said Captain Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman.

China's defense ministry declined to comment on the issue on Thursday.

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/542626/news/nation/phl-ready-for-scenarios-as-china-protests-us-presence-in-disputed-sea-dnd