ISIS still a threat in Southeast Asia

Posted to the Mindanao Examiner (Mar 25, 2023): ISIS still a threat in Southeast Asia

THE PHILIPPINES remains an attractive site for Islamic State (IS) operations now and in the future, Nikkei Asia quoted Mimi Fabe, a professor of financial terrorism at the National Police College of the Philippines, as saying.

“The ISIS HQ still regards Philippine terrorist organizations as reliable conduits for terrorism financing, recruitment of combatants and child soldiers, involvement of women in terrorist smuggling of weapons as well as ammunition, a place to get multiple identities and, in certain areas, as safe havens for foreign terrorist fighters,” Fabe said.

One of the most notorious organizations in the Philippines is the jihadi and kidnap-for-ransom group Abu Sayyaf, which has two factions. One of them is allied with IS and is the largest IS-linked group in the Philippines. “All of these groups are operating in Mindanao Island, while two other transnational organized crime groups which are sympathetic to ISIS-linked groups have a footprint in Luzon,” Fabe said.

Fabe said the IS headquarters is fully supportive of the Abu Sayyaf factions. The support comprises terrorism financing and the transfer of training techniques, including the sending of IS fighters to train newly recruited combatants and child soldiers in Mindanao.

Mindanao

In May 2017, Abu Sayyaf and the IS-linked Maute Group seized control of Marawi city in Mindanao and laid siege to it for five months before the Philippine military regained control. The attack marked the most serious bid by IS to gain a foothold in Southeast Asia, unsettling governments across the region with its ferocity, impeccable planning and abundant logistics. More than 1,100 civilians, militants and security forces were killed. An attack of such scale has not been repeated since.

According to Fabe, the careful monitoring of Marawi and the larger Lanao region, where the city is, plus efforts at preventing and countering violent extremism by security forces has led to the maintenance of peace and order in the area.

Nikkei Asia also quoted Colin Clarke, director of research at The Soufan Group intelligence and security consultancy, as saying that IS is still very interested in Southeast Asian countries including the Philippines, where the group can use sectarianism as a recruitment tool.

“IS is opportunistic and will continue to look for openings to rebuild its networks throughout Southeast Asia,” said Clarke. “IS has continued to spread propaganda and recruit ... and there are some concerns about the group making inroads in Singapore.”

Clarke said IS is in rebuilding mode at the moment. “Its goal is to remain relevant and look for power vacuums it can exploit. It is also likely seeking to rebuild its external operations capabilities, because conducting successful attacks is the most effective recruitment tool. ... It proves relevance when many analysts are claiming that the group is finished,” Clarke said, adding, IS is strong in Africa and Afghanistan but suffering significant losses elsewhere.

At its height, IS held about a third of Syrian territory and 40% of Iraq. It drew an estimated 30,000 foreign fighters to its caliphate, including citizens from Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Singapore, before its defeat by a U.S.-led coalition.

Nikkei Asia said four years after the fall of the IS caliphate in Syria where it lost territories and followers, the extremist group’s ideology remains entrenched in Southeast Asia, particularly in Indonesia and the Philippines, where risks of attacks are looming.

Indonesia

In Indonesia, it reported that a counterterrorism expert warned that IS supporters are working together with former terrorism convicts to form a group to carry out attacks in the run-up to, during and possibly after the country's presidential elections due in 2024.

Muh Taufiqurrohman, a senior researcher at the Jakarta-based Center for Radicalism and Deradicalization Studies (PAKAR), told Nikkei Asia this group of IS supporters is targeting polling stations, police and non-Muslims, viewing them as enemies of IS that must be destroyed.

“The Indonesian government should watch out for former and current Jemaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) members, ex-convicted terrorists and supporters of Islamic caliphate who are gathering to form an interorganizational group to carry out attacks in 2024,” said Taufiqurrohman.

This group is working with former terrorism convicts because they have "military skills and access to weapons."

Though JAD is the biggest IS affiliate in Indonesia, responsible for some of the major terrorist attacks in the country since 2016, Taufiqurrohman said IS supporters outside of JAD are the most active in Indonesia at the moment, as JAD has been weakened following the arrests of its leaders and many of its members.

“Currently, the most active IS supporters are not from JAD but young people who are active on social media ... and they want to carry out attacks even though they don't have the paramilitary skills,” said Taufiqurrohman.

He also said JAD members and other IS supporters are conducting paramilitary training as preparation for future jihad operations. The training includes self-defense, archery and learning how to make bombs from the internet.

A former IS member who spoke with Nikkei by phone said that 90% of IS recruitment is done via social media. “They [IS members] are very active on Twitter, Facebook, Telegram and Instagram,” said the former militant, who declined to be named. He was imprisoned for four years for supplying weapons and channeling 1.3 billion rupiah ($85,000) from Syria to Indonesian militants.

He warned that propaganda from IS remains potent, adding that IS recently released an audio recording calling for supporters to make a baiat (pledge of allegiance) to the new caliph, Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurayshi, and to carry out terrorist attacks.

"It is dangerous if nothing is done to counter such a narrative," said the former militant, who is currently helping Indonesian authorities in de-radicalization efforts for convicted militants.

He said IS recently started translating its messages into 17 languages, including English, French and Russian as well as Indonesian, to spread its propaganda.

In the long term, the biggest threat comes from the al-Qaida-linked Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), which has 6,000 to 8,000 active members, some with military skills, who are highly committed to realizing their ambition of an Islamic state in Indonesia, said PAKAR's Taufiqurrohman.

JI was behind the October 2002 Bali bombings, which killed 202 people, the biggest terrorist attack following 9/11.

Singapore

In Singapore, the IS threat is one that exists in social media, including the online gaming space, “which is why developing psychological resilience of youth to extremist ideological manipulation is very critical as a key line of defense,” said Kumar Ramakrishna, professor of national security studies and dean of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies and Research.

Two teenagers who were self-radicalized online were detained recently in the city-state. One of them, age 16, had joined multiple Islamic State-themed servers on the gaming platform Roblox.

“My own view is that the general IS strategy is to employ cyberspace as a 'force multiplier' in its radicalization and recruitment efforts around the world, and certainly in Southeast Asia, including of course Singapore,” Kumar said in the same Nikkei Asia report.

“IS ideologues have always maintained, especially since the loss of their territorial holdings ... that its cyber warriors or influencers are just as important as its physical warriors,” Kumar said.

Malaysia

In Malaysia, Ahmad El-Muhammady, assistant professor at the International Institute of Islamic Thought and Civilization, said that while the majority of Malaysians reject the Islamic State group's narrative, a small number still find it attractive and embrace it.

“They even try to promote it through social media platforms. I believe IS's threat remains, but in the form of narratives and ideology. It exists at the potential level. If we don't manage the potential threat, it may escalate to an actual threat,” Ahmad said. (Mindanao Examiner, Nikkei Asia)

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