- Security experts say the two sides have been unable to reach a deal because the American system could be too expensive for Manila
- Chinese man-made islands on reefs in the disputed Spratly chain would be in striking distance if it’s deployed, according to one analyst
Washington and Manila have been discussing the potential deployment of an upgraded US rocket system in a bid to deter Beijing’s “militarisation” of its artificial islands in the contested South China Sea, according to regional security experts.
But the two sides have been unable to reach a deal because the high-mobility artillery rocket system (HIMARS) could be too expensive for Manila given its tight defence budget, they said.
The allies’ defence chiefs, however, reaffirmed their “enduring alliance” on Monday in Washington, and agreed to increase the interoperability of their forces and US support for the modernisation of the Philippines’ armed forces.
The latest reaffirmation echoed US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s mutual defence reassurance in Manila last month, when Pompeo singled out the threat of “China’s island-building and military activities” in the disputed waterway.
If deployed, the long-range, precision-guided rockets fired by the system would be able to strike Chinese man-made islands on reefs in the Spratly chain, one expert said.
The revelation came after an influential defence think tank, the Centre for a New American Security (CNAS) in Washington, warned in a new report that the US’ “freedom of navigation” operations had failed to fundamentally alter Beijing’s course in the South China Sea.
Beijing has reportedly installed anti-ship and surface-to-air missile systems on three artificial islands on Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief reefs in the Spratly chain, posing a potential hurdle to US military access in the contested area. It rejected a US demand that the missiles be removed during high-level diplomatic and security talks in Washington in November.
The revelation came after an influential defence think tank, the Centre for a New American Security (CNAS) in Washington, warned in a new report that the US’ “freedom of navigation” operations had failed to fundamentally alter Beijing’s course in the South China Sea.
Beijing has reportedly installed anti-ship and surface-to-air missile systems on three artificial islands on Fiery Cross, Subi and Mischief reefs in the Spratly chain, posing a potential hurdle to US military access in the contested area. It rejected a US demand that the missiles be removed during high-level diplomatic and security talks in Washington in November.
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The think tank’s report released on March 21 urged the US to deploy HIMARS in Southeast Asian countries, which will “demonstrate the flexibility and variability of America’s rotational military presence”.
The rocket system was first test-fired in the US-Philippines annual military drill, Balikatan, in 2016.
The Pentagon’s director of the joint staff, Lieutenant General Kenneth McKenzie, has warned that the US has the ability to “take down” China’s artificial islands.
Chinese military experts had a mixed response, with one dismissing the possibility of a HIMARS deployment in the near future and another urging Beijing to pay attention to the alarming message.
Lieutenant General Kenneth McKenzie, the Pentagon’s director of the joint staff, says the US has the ability to “take down” China’s artificial islands. Photo: Facebook
The US Army Pacific, which operates HIMARS in the region, has not publicly singled out the system from a set of options that could be used in a conflict in the South China Sea.
General James McConville, the US Army’s vice chief of staff, indicated last month that no imminent deployment of “long-range precision fires” was in the pipeline but partner nations in the Pacific “are open to the discussion”, according to a report by Stars and Stripes.
Derrick Cheng, a US Army Pacific spokesman, declined to comment on the details of any “operations or activities related to any future deployment of US Army soldiers or equipment”.
“For US Army Pacific, the M142 HIMARS is a capability within our organisation, specifically the 17th Field Artillery Brigade that we train and use to maintain our overall war-fighting readiness,” Cheng said. “The brigade and its role as a multi-domain task force is part of our effort to integrate capabilities and evolve the concept of multi-domain operations.”
HIMARS is a light multiple rocket launcher, mounted on a US Army truck, that can launch six rounds of rockets, or one surface-to-surface tactical missile with a maximum range of 300km (186 miles).
Manufacturer Lockheed Martin was awarded a US$289 million US Army contract for 24 HIMARS and associated equipment in September, putting the price for each system close to US$12 million.
Patrick Cronin, former senior director for national strategic studies at the US’ National Defence University, said “HIMARS, and other rockets and missiles, are currently being considered not just for regional exercises but also for possible deployment to improve the deterrent capability of regional partners”.
Cronin, also the lead author of the CNAS report, said the US Army, Marine Corps and the Philippines armed forces “certainly” had interests in deploying the firepower, which “is being driven by China’s militarisation of outposts in the Spratly Islands”.
He added that HIMARS “would be better against a fixed target, such as an artificial island”.
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Song Zhongping, a Hong Kong-based military analyst, said it would be “very difficult” for Southeast Asian countries to deploy the weapon in the near future, despite Washington repeatedly touting the offer.
“Southeast Asian countries are cautious in deploying such firepower,” Song said. “They prefer military assistance to arms sales from the US, because nations like the Philippines cannot afford it.”
Philippine President Duterte approved a US$5.6 billion military modernisation plan last June, but it focused on unmanned aerial vehicles, long-range patrol aircraft, offshore patrol ships and an electric-diesel submarine, according to Reuters.
The previous administration of Benigno Aquino spent about US$1.7 billion on the military during its 2010-16 term in office, mostly on second-hand ships and planes.
The US Army Pacific, which operates HIMARS in the region, has not publicly singled out the system from a set of options that could be used in a conflict in the South China Sea.
General James McConville, the US Army’s vice chief of staff, indicated last month that no imminent deployment of “long-range precision fires” was in the pipeline but partner nations in the Pacific “are open to the discussion”, according to a report by Stars and Stripes.
Derrick Cheng, a US Army Pacific spokesman, declined to comment on the details of any “operations or activities related to any future deployment of US Army soldiers or equipment”.
“For US Army Pacific, the M142 HIMARS is a capability within our organisation, specifically the 17th Field Artillery Brigade that we train and use to maintain our overall war-fighting readiness,” Cheng said. “The brigade and its role as a multi-domain task force is part of our effort to integrate capabilities and evolve the concept of multi-domain operations.”
HIMARS is a light multiple rocket launcher, mounted on a US Army truck, that can launch six rounds of rockets, or one surface-to-surface tactical missile with a maximum range of 300km (186 miles).
Manufacturer Lockheed Martin was awarded a US$289 million US Army contract for 24 HIMARS and associated equipment in September, putting the price for each system close to US$12 million.
Patrick Cronin, former senior director for national strategic studies at the US’ National Defence University, said “HIMARS, and other rockets and missiles, are currently being considered not just for regional exercises but also for possible deployment to improve the deterrent capability of regional partners”.
Cronin, also the lead author of the CNAS report, said the US Army, Marine Corps and the Philippines armed forces “certainly” had interests in deploying the firepower, which “is being driven by China’s militarisation of outposts in the Spratly Islands”.
He added that HIMARS “would be better against a fixed target, such as an artificial island”.
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Song Zhongping, a Hong Kong-based military analyst, said it would be “very difficult” for Southeast Asian countries to deploy the weapon in the near future, despite Washington repeatedly touting the offer.
“Southeast Asian countries are cautious in deploying such firepower,” Song said. “They prefer military assistance to arms sales from the US, because nations like the Philippines cannot afford it.”
Philippine President Duterte approved a US$5.6 billion military modernisation plan last June, but it focused on unmanned aerial vehicles, long-range patrol aircraft, offshore patrol ships and an electric-diesel submarine, according to Reuters.
The previous administration of Benigno Aquino spent about US$1.7 billion on the military during its 2010-16 term in office, mostly on second-hand ships and planes.
Philippines-controlled Thitu Island in the Spratlys is said to be one option for the system. Photo: amti.csis.org
Zhu Feng, an international relations professor at Nanjing University specialising in East Asian security affairs, cautioned that Beijing should pay heed to the possible deployment.
The appeal of deploying long-range firepower reflected growing US dissatisfaction with China’s “militarisation” of the island reefs, Zhu said, adding that “Beijing should refrain from fully weaponising those artificial islands”.
Zhu Feng, an international relations professor at Nanjing University specialising in East Asian security affairs, cautioned that Beijing should pay heed to the possible deployment.
The appeal of deploying long-range firepower reflected growing US dissatisfaction with China’s “militarisation” of the island reefs, Zhu said, adding that “Beijing should refrain from fully weaponising those artificial islands”.
However, speaking at the Boao Forum for Asia last week, Wu Shicun, head of the government-affiliated National Institute for South China Sea Studies, said China should reinforce “deterrence facilities” in the contested waters as the US and its allies mount a bigger challenge there.
Partly maintaining those outposts for civilian use would be helpful for Beijing to smooth and expand relations with Southeast Asian countries, a majority of whom shared the US’ concern, he said.
Collin Koh Swee Lean, a maritime security research fellow at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the relatively inexpensive HIMARS could still be “on the costly side” for militaries on tight budgets.
Philippines raises alarm over South China Sea island
But the US Army considered deployment of the system “as a good expression of its strategic and operational relevance in the Pacific region”, Koh said.
He said there were two possible locations for the system: Palawan province in the Philippines and Thitu, or Zhongye in Chinese – the largest island held by Manila in the disputed Spratly chain.
From Palawan, HIMARS could launch a missile at its maximum range to hit China’s man-made island at Mischief Reef, Koh said. But Thitu island would also be vulnerable to PLA air and missile strikes because it is only about 22km (14 miles) from China-occupied Subi Reef, and within striking range of missiles originating from the Paracel Islands and Hainan, he added.
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3004372/us-philippines-said-be-talks-rocket-system-deter-beijings
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