Analyst: Showdown in ASEAN looms over disputed sea

From ABS-CBN (Nov 20): Analyst: Showdown in ASEAN looms over disputed sea

A diplomatic confrontation among parties to maritime disputes in the West Philippine Sea looms at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, an analyst said Thursday.

The issue was largely sidelined at the main discussions in the just concluded Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders' meeting in Manila.

De La Salle University international relations expert Richard Heydarian said the two summits compartmentalize regional issues, with APEC sticking to economic discussions, leaving the gepolitical debates to the ASEAN gathering.

"Ang plano talaga nila sa East Asia summit at ASEAN, doon talaga nila i-confront ang China pagdating sa issue ng freedom of navigation operation. Halos sigurado na pagdating sa ASEAN, lalabas yung issue ng freedom of navigation, papaano iyung mga ginagawa ng China ay threat sa region," he said.

Heydarian said China is already prepared for this.

"Iyung China, nagpe-prepare na sila for a more difficult showdown. Siyempre dun sa China hindi na si Xi Jinping ang andun, number 2 na nila. Nandun si Li Keqiang, diplomatically hindi ganung magiging ka-embarassing kasi sa mga Chinese. Napakamahalaga sa kanila na iyung president nila mismo hindi ma-embarass," he said.
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Philippine Ambassador to Malaysia Jose Eduardo Malaya III said "the President has something to share about the recent ruling by the Arbiter Tribunal in The Hague wherein the Tribunal decided in our favor on the matter of jurisdiction and admissibility of the case. Meaning, in fact, we probably have been saying all along, we have been right in saying all along that this is an issue which should be decided on the basis of international law particularly UNCLOS, so even on those two points alone, I think, it is very important that the President comes over and attend this summit."

"Now, on the matter of this recent favorable ruling of the International Tribunal in The Hague, I think the President will be listened very attentively by his colleagues within ASEAN because by its recent ruling, we have in a sense, already hurdled successfully the first test. And what we are seeing now, there are a number of ASEAN countries who have turned around and have also, in a raise their voice, with respect to their concerns about what is taking place in the South China Sea and including, of course, our West Philippine Sea portion of it," he added.

"Previously, it was just us and the Vietnamese but after the ruling had been issued by the tribunal in The Hague, we have been hearing a stronger statements not only by the Malaysians, the host country for this summit but also by the Indonesians. So, as far as we can see it from here, we’re seeing a turning around of the opinions of the ASEAN countries from their original skeptical view of the path that we have taken," Malaya said.

"Well, of course, there are people who are saying that a lot of sectors would be benefited while there would be a lot of adjustments to be taken into account with respect to the other sectors which may be adversely affected by the integration. But one probably should look at it from the frame of history or perhaps one needs to take a longer view about it," he added.

ASEAN leaders will gather in the Malaysian capital this weekend. Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak of Malaysia, chair of ASEAN for 2015, will preside over the 27th ASEAN Summit beginning Friday wherein he and his fellow leaders are expected to announce the launch of the ASEAN Community and ASEAN’s vision beyond 2015.

During the summit that takes place at the Kuala Lumpur Convention Center, leaders of ASEAN will also engage with the heads of governments of China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, India, Australia, New Zealand, Russia, and the United States.

Heydarian said, "this ASEAN summit will be hosting other countries considered as dialogue partners of the 10-member ASEAN. Doon talaga ilalabas ng mga bansa yung issue na iyan. Most likely even if maapektuhan iyung joint statements dun sa ASEAN or East Asia Summit, mae-expect mo na invidual leaders pati si Aquino, ilalabas na nila more openly and more frankly iyung issue ng West Philippine Sea. Babanat talaga sila. They're open for grilling. Atsaka si Obama, most likely, hihingi din siya ng bilateral talk with Li Keqiang kung di natuloy with Xi Jinping, specifically on the South China Sea."

In the last ASEAN defense ministers' meeting, maritime disputes as well as the specter of terrorism were already discussed. The ASEAN also has condemned the attacks in Paris.

Malaya said the leaders are looking at signing two vital documents and one is the KL Declaration on the Establishment of the ASEAN Community. The other one is on the KL Declaration on the ASEAN 2015 -- Forging Ahead Together.

Malaya added, " The Philippines has a number of priorities in ASEAN, and what formally, this pertains to role of women and peace building, economic participation of women in the ASEAN economic community, emphasis on the regional comprehensive economic partnership and a lot others. "

One of the anticipated highlights in this summit is the declaration by ASEAN Leaders on the establishment of the ASEAN Community.

ASEAN was established in 1967 by the five founding members, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Brunei Darussalam, Viet Nam, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Cambodia joined later. The summit is ASEAN’s highest policy-making body.

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