China’s ongoing land reclamation in five reefs in the disputed Spratly Islands is widely seen by the Philippine Government as preparation for more land reclamation operations, this time in three areas closer to the Philippines.
And, per the latest separate assessment by local and foreign experts, China will use oil exploration and reclamation to project its supremacy in the region, as a proxy for its navy which is still not yet fully equipped "to overcome the logistical challenges" like distance in asserting its will.
A confidential Malacanang report detailed the land reclamation activities of China in five areas, namely, at Johnson South (Mabini) Reef, Cuarteron (Calderon) Reef, Hughes (Kennan) Reef, Gaven (Burgos) Reef and Eldad (Malvar) Reef.
The report noted China has focused its land reclamation operations in areas which are “farther” from the Philippine mainland. No such activities were monitored in three other areas - Fiery Cross (Kagitingan) Reef, Subi (Zamora) Reef and Mischief (Panganiban) Reef - where China had built military garrisons and communications facilities.
The report, however, does not rule out the possibility of China doing land reclamation in these three areas once the work is done in the first five reefs.
Reclamation, oil exploration to project supremacy
The assessment by both local and international observers is that the expansion of China’s existing garrisons in these areas is part of Beijing’s ongoing efforts to impose its supremacy over the area.
The Malacanang report estimates Beijing will likely start land reclamation work at Fiery Cross Reef and Subi Reef first. China has built a formidable garrison at Fiery Cross Reef, where some 200 Chinese troops are stationed and which contains air and surface search radars as well as satellite data transmission facilities. The Fiery Cross Reef garrison also has helicopter landing pads and a wharf.
The Fiery Cross Reef garrison is heavily armed with naval guns and is considered as China’s main headquarters within the Philippines’ Kalayaan Island Group.
The Chinese garrison in Subi Reef also has around 200 troops stationed, as well as helicopter landing pads.
Senior Aquino Administration officials noted, however, China may hold off from any activity at Mischief Reef due to its proximity to the Philippines. Officials said Beijing expects Manila to adopt a more aggressive diplomatic stance and attract more international attention should there be any land reclamation activity at Mischief Reef.
The Philippines and China already had several clashes over Mischief Reef. From several octagonal structures on stilts that first drew Manila’s uproar in 1995, China now has at least four building complexes in Mischief Reef, and over a hundred soldiers guarding the communications facilities, docks and landing pad.
The geopolitical analysis website Stratfor pointed out China is using the strategy of oil exploration activities and land reclamation activities to enforce its claim over the disputed Spratlys and Paracel Islands.
In its recent paper on rising tensions between China and Vietnam over the Paracel Islands, Stratfor said Beijing’s use of oil exploration activities is one example of how “it is firming up its presence and gradually eroding other claimants’ ability to challenge its supremacy.”
Stratfor says Beijing will continue to push its boundaries using this strategy as it still has to build up its navy’s logistical capability. “China’s navy is not good enough to overcome the logistical challenges such distances present, so its ability to project its dominance throughout the maritime sphere is limited,” Stratfor said.
According to Stratfor, Beijing will continue with its three-step strategy:
1. Use the nine – dash line as a historical justification for its continued operations in disputed waters;
2. Enforce its claim in “tactically advantageous areas where it has an actual presence,” such as the Paracels and Scarborough Shoal;
3. Continue to develop its military and technological capability to carefully push its maritime boundaries farther “without antagonizing all of its neighbors at once.”
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