Secretary of Defense Delfin Lorenzana has been giving a lot of thought to the South China Sea (SCS) lately. In a recent interview with an American news agency, he said he does not see the United States starting a war with China over the SCS as President Trump, he said, is a businessman and he knows that if war breaks out, business will suffer.
In another interview – with a French news agency – Lorenzana expressed fear that China is likely to build military facilities on Scarborough Shoal, which is only 150 miles from the Zambales coast and therefore within the 200-mile Exclusive Economic Zone of the Philippines under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Lorenzana said China is likely to build facilities on Scarborough – which we call Panatag or Bajo de Masinloc – as It would give China a military outpost at the easternmost part of the South China Sea which it claims to be part of China. With a base on Scarborough, he said, China would have effective control of the maritime area it claims with its Nine-Dash Line.
In 2012, then President Benigno S Aquino III issued Administrative Order No. 29 renaming South China Sea waters within the country’s Exclusive Economic Zone as “West Philippine Sea.” The area claimed includes, aside from Scarborough, the Spratly islands, the Reed Bank, and Mischief Reef west of Palawan. We call these the Kalayaan islands.
While the Philippine government claims all this areas in the “West Philippine Sea,” the name does not appear in any international map. China certainly does not recognize it, as it conflicts with its own Nine-Dash-Line map. In any open conflict, we could not defend our claim against those of other countries.
Over the years, the Philippines has had to rely on the US for help, but under our Mutual Defense Treaty, the US is committed to come to the Philippines’ defense in case of an attack only on a “metropolitan territory” or “island territories… in the Pacific.” Thus far, the US has limited its interest in the South China Sea to ensuring that it remains open to international navigation.
The Arbitral Court in the Hague ruled last year that China’s claims to most of the South China Sea have no legal basis and ordered that Scarborough Shoal, as a traditional fishing area, remain accessible to fishermen of all nations. But the Arbitral Court has no capacity to enforce its decisions, so if China – as Secretary Lorenzana fears – starts building a military outpost on the shoal, the Philippines could do nothing about it.
Under President Duterte, the Philippines has adopted a policy of closer, friendlier relations with China. We may have won in the Hague court, but we are not asserting our claim, not at this time anyway. We have no means to do this, not with our present defense capability, and not with our present uncertainties with the US.
Secretary Lorenzana can only speculate on possibilities in the South China Sea under present conditions which are constantly changing. He mentioned in his interview with the US news agency that he would ask for an increase in the Philippine defense budget – from the present 1.5 percent of the GNP to 2.5 percent. The present Philippine defense budget, he said, is only half of what most of our neighbors currently spend.
In the face of the challenges in the South China Sea, even doubling the defense budget would hardly make a difference. But a stronger Philippine defense structure would be an improvement on the present situation and deserves the full consideration of our government.
http://news.mb.com.ph/2017/02/11/a-stronger-defense-structure-will-help/
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