China, US deploy submarines in disputed South China Sea

From the Manila Bulletin (Jun 20): China, US deploy submarines in disputed South China Sea

The deployment of submarines by China and the United States in the South China Sea may lead to the escalation of conflict in the disputed waters, a US-based consultancy firm said.

One potential parameter of instability in the East and South China Seas is the additional deployments of submarines by China in the disputed areas, according to simulations conducted by Wikistrat, a consultancy firm for strategic analysis and forecasting.

It noted that earlier this year, China deployed all three of its Type 094 nuclear missile submarines in the South China Sea as part of its naval strategy for nuclear deterrence. The United States responded by sending one of its submarines, the USS North Carolina, to the region to begin patrols and monitor Chinese activity.

According to Wikistrat, this could lead to escalation of conflict as other countries redirect their naval forces and submarines to the South China Sea as well, especially the Philippines and Vietnam which see China’s increased submarine deployments as a response to their own naval modernization efforts, including the latter’s acquisition of the Russian Gepard-class frigate and the Dutch Sigma-class corvette.

Wikistrat’s analysts “war-gamed” the Vietnamese deployment of a Russian-built submarine to the disputed region, both to monitor China’s submarines and ensure it does not keep ramming and sinking Vietnamese fishing vessels.

Based on its simulations, the geostrategic analysis firm said the trend of deploying submarines continues through 2016, partially due to fears of China’s “carrier killer” the DF-21D cruise missile.

JAPAN MAY JOIN FRAY

“If China responds by deploying its Type 093 submarine to the South China Sea, Japan may be tempted to begin launching a new Soryu-class submarine once a year, increasing the total number to 11 by 2020,” Wikistrat said.

“The spiral dynamic of this proliferation of submarines in the East and South China Seas means countries like the Philippines and Vietnam believe they have little choice but to accelerate their own naval programs for fear of falling behind.”

It pointed out that while Vietnam focuses on expanding its own navy, the Philippines look to other countries involved in territorial disputes with China – specifically Japan and South Korea –to improve its military position.

“This, in turn, aggravates Chinese fears of being encircled by states that are friendly to the United States and leads to conflicts in the region being increasingly militarized – heightening the chances for confrontation that could ultimately pull in both superpowers,” said Wikistrat, the world’s first massively multiplayer online consultancy leveraging a global network of subject-matter experts.

KOREA’S CONCERN

South Korean, which has close economic relations with China, has expressed deep concern over the recent “disturbing” actions taken by China in the disputed South China Sea.

“Not just provocative but really serious for you and for us,” South Korean Embassy Minister and Consul General Ming Kyong-Ho told Manila Bulletin in an exclusive interview.

And it is also bad for the environment, Ming added.

“(China’s) reclaiming reefs and building airstrips….building islands on artificial reefs is very disturbing,” he said. “Beautiful reefs are being destroyed with the construction of artificial islands.”

Ming was referring to recent reports that China is planning to expand its military installation in a contentious area in the South China Sea by establishing an artificial island with an airstrip and sea port. The Philippines, which is claiming the area where the artificial island will apparently be established, already lodged another protest over China’s supposed plan since it could prejudice the arbitration case it has filed against China before the United Nations-backed arbitral tribunal.

Still, amid the heated territorial row, Ming insists that South Korea considers both the Philippines and China as close friends.

“We don’t want any trouble among our friends,” he said. “What we want is a very stable South China Sea.”

FOLLOW INT’L LAW – KOREA

Ming stressed that South Korea’s basic concern is that “all kinds of trouble with China should be peacefully resolved in accordance with international law.”

“We should follow the code of conduct which should be agreed upon as soon as possible,” he declared. “In the meantime, the DOC (Declaration of a Code of Conduct in South China Sea) should be followed. That’s our common principle.”

South Korea is not a party to the territorial dispute, he said, “but when it infringes on our right, say, freedom of navigation, then we can say (something).”

“Freedom of navigation should be secured,” Ming emphasized.
This was exactly the case when South Korea announced its own Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in response to China establishing the East China Sea ADIZ “because there was an infringement of territory,” Ming explained.

With the Philippines, a claimant to parts of South China Sea, he said South Korea is keen on promoting and strengthening relations in every possible area with the country that includes defense political, economic, and cultural.
“We have a strategic partnership with ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asia) as a whole,” Ming noted. “But we don’t have bilateral strategic partnership with any member of ASEAN.”

He disclosed that there were thoughts raised about elevating the bilateral ties of South Korea and the Philippines.

“But there’s no concrete proposal yet, only informal talks about strategic relations.”

An added boost to the efforts to strengthen relations between the two countries is the recent signing of a $420 million contract for Seoul to sell 12 light attack FA-50 fighters to Manila.

CHINA FOR PEACE

Despite escalating tensions in the disputed seas, Premier Li Keqiang said China “naturally loves peace” but will take “resolute measures” to protect regional stability, affirming a dual-track foreign policy of power and peace despite tensions with nations, including Japan and Vietnam.

Li insisted that an urge for expansion was “not in the Chinese DNA” and that a “stable neighboring environment” was necessary for China’s continued economic development.

He was speaking in the City of London financial district on a three-day trip which aims to build trade ties and repair relations strained when British Prime Minister David Cameron met exiled Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama in 2012.

“We want to have a stable external environment. The Chinese naturally love peace. Confucius taught us that we should not do to others what we don’t want done to us… this has been imprinted on to the DNA of the nation,” Li said in a speech to foreign policy experts, business leaders and politicians.

“Expansion is not in the Chinese DNA nor can we accept the logic that a strong country is bound to be hegemonic.”

But he added that China would take action “to protect the stability of the region” where necessary.

“For those acts of provoking incidents and undermining peace, China will have to take resolute measures to stop them, to prevent the situation from getting out of control,” he said.

“This is to protect the stability of the region.”

http://www.mb.com.ph/china-us-deploy-submarines-in-disputed-south-china-sea/