Opinion: Strategic victory

Opinion piece posted to the Philippine Star (Apr 26, 2023): Strategic victory (SKETCHES by Ana Marie Pamintuan)

The founding chairman and principal ideologue is dead. So are the two top commanders. The number of villages affected or influenced by the communist insurgency has dropped dramatically. And there has been a steady stream of rebels surrendering and rejoining the social mainstream.

The Communist Party of the Philippines and its military arm, the New People’s Army, were born and became strongest during the first Marcos presidency, thanks to the abuses and social injustices during the martial law regime.

Today, with CPP founding chairman Jose Maria Sison dead and NPA leaders Benito and Wilma Tiamzon killed in what the military described as a legitimate counterinsurgency operation in August last year, Marcos 2.0 is declaring a “strategic victory” – just one step away from full victory – over the insurgency.

The strategic victory was first announced last year. Jonathan Malaya, assistant director general of the National Security Council, is reiterating it.

Malaya said the government is also considering amnesty for the remaining rebels.

And guess which group is pushing for the amnesty? The Armed Forces of the Philippines. Really.

Apparently, the AFP is tired of the fighting, which has caused the loss of thousands of military, police and militia members’ lives in the past five decades, Malaya told “The Chiefs” last Monday on Cignal TV’s One News.

The AFP is also moving to implement the shift in its role as envisioned by the Marcos administration, concentrating fully on external defense while leaving internal security to the Philippine National Police.

Malaya noted that the PNP already has its elite Special Action Force and the Regional Mobile Forces engaged in counterinsurgency. But he acknowledges that the PNP in general has a different role in maintaining public safety, and may need reorientation if it is going to handle counterinsurgency.

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Because of his unique role in the CPP-NPA and its political arm the National Democratic Front, Joma Sison is irreplaceable in the Maoist rebellion. But what about the Tiamzons? Or NPA commander Eric Jun Casilao, who was apprehended by Malaysian authorities and deported to Manila on April 17? Does the government see new leaders emerging in the CPP-NPA-NDF?

The Abu Sayyaf, after all, has been decapitated several times, but it has behaved like the multiheaded Hydra monster, regenerating and resuming its terrorism and banditry.

Malaya says that in the communist insurgency, no such person has popped up in the government radar so far.

Another question is whether the government’s claimed gains in counterinsurgency are sustainable. The current administration is realistic enough to refrain from saying so. But an indication that it believes so is the lack of interest in reviving the moribund formal peace negotiations with the NDF.

Even after the death of Sison, Malaya told us, not a peep about the resumption of peace talks was heard within the current administration. He noted that only the communists and their sympathizers were the ones who mentioned the revival of the peace talks following Joma’s death.

The government has learned its lesson from previous periods of peace negotiations, which the CPP-NPA merely used to recruit, re-supply, re-arm and consolidate rebel ranks, Malaya said.

Like previous administrations, Marcos 2.0 seems happy with simply pursuing localized peace talks.

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This tack enjoyed a boost during the pandemic lockdowns, when rebels could no longer interact with communities. Some rebels themselves caught COVID. Their supplies ran out and their resources for outreach and other programs to assist the poor and win hearts and minds dried out.

Meanwhile, the government retained its vast resources to provide direct assistance to those who became impoverished by the economic devastation from the lockdowns. Never mind if the nation became buried in debt as a result and much of the economic suffering in fact emanated from the Beijing-loving Duterte administration initially copying China’s restrictive zero-COVID policy; pandemic ayuda painted the government as a savior in a long period of great need. (This situation also gave administration candidates, who used government resources, a major edge in the May 2022 elections.)

An amnesty package for the CPP-NPA holdouts is currently being worked out.

Skeptics, however, say the insurgency will truly end only when its roots are sufficiently addressed. These include social injustice, a yawning income gap, abuse of power and bad governance. All these problems persist, which has to be the reason why the Philippines now has the dubious distinction of having the world’s longest running communist insurgency.

The government began declaring strategic victory over the insurgency as the country emerged from the crippling pandemic, and while BBM is still enjoying his first-year honeymoon with critics.

With the low base from the pandemic recession disappearing, however, a more accurate image of the country’s economic performance is emerging. Food-driven inflation is biting, and there are whispers about post-pandemic “revenge corruption” manifesting across all levels of government.

These issues must be confronted decisively by the new leadership. The communist insurgency must have no more compelling reason to fester for another five decades. Otherwise, even “strategic victory” will be short-lived....

https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2023/04/26/2261768/strategic-victory