Washington and Manila: Shoulder-to-shoulder?

From the American Enterprise Institute (Apr 5): Washington and Manila: Shoulder-to-shoulder?

Yesterday, the United States and Philippines kicked off the annual bilateral Balikatan military exercises, involving 8,000 US and Filipino troops over the course of two weeks. This year’s exercises occur at a particularly sensitive time for the alliance, as China continues to militarize the South China Sea. A successful US strategy to deter Beijing’s aggression should include continued efforts to strengthen bilateral relations with Manila, and Defense Secretary Ash Carter’s trip to the country next week provides a unique opening to do just that.

Earlier this year, the Philippine Supreme Court ruled in favor of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement that allows US troops to return to a number of air, naval, and army bases throughout the Philippines on a rotational basis.

US military forces manœuvre during the annual “Balikatan” (shoulder-to-shoulder) war games with Filipino soldiers in northern Philippines April 21, 2015. REUTERS/Erik De Castro.

 

The US military’s return to the Philippines occurs as Beijing deploys missiles and fighter aircraft to Woody Island, a part of the Paracel Island chain in the South China Sea. Now analysts worry that China intends to begin “island building” on Scarborough Shoal, a reef only 120 nautical miles off the coast of the main Philippine island of Luzon, which China seized from the Philippines in June 2012.

To complicate matters, The Hague is expected to rule on the Philippines’ legal challenge to China’s nine-dash line claim in May or June. In response to an unfavorable ruling, Beijing could retaliate by declaring an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea, similar to the one it created over the East China Sea in 2013. The Obama Administration has signaled its concern about an ADIZ by preemptively warning Beijing that it would not recognize the exclusion zone.

A recent case study for the coming tension over Scarborough Shoal is the 2014 standoff between Beijing and Tokyo over the Senkaku Islands. The Obama administration responded to the escalating situation by reiterating that the Senkakus fell within the purview of the United States’ mutual defense treaty with Japan. While this statement didn’t end tensions over the Senkakus, the East China Sea has quieted down of late.

What’s the lesson learned? China’s maritime expansion strategy has a clear pattern – Chinese maritime patrol fleets test boundaries when they face little pushback; however, when Washington makes clear, forceful statements, Beijing often shifts its maritime expansion to lower risk areas.

Defense Secretary Ash Carter has an opportunity on his visit to the Philippines next week to strengthen US deterrence against Beijing by reiterating Washington’s firm commitment to defending its treaty ally. Article V of the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty states that an attack on the Philippines’ “armed forces, public vessels or aircraft” is cause for the US to intervene. Carter (and Secretary of State John Kerry) should clarify that the pact applies to Philippine forces in the South China Sea.

The upcoming Philippine presidential election on May 9 could throw a monkey wrench in the works, if Washington decides to hold on clarifying US treaty commitments to Manila in case the new president of the Philippines distances him or herself from the United States. However, failing to clarify the mutual defense treaty would be an unforced error, enabling Beijing to drive a wedge in the alliance.

Instead, we need to apply the lesson we have learned: the US should deter China by restating its treaty commitments to the Philippines, regardless of who takes power this year in Manila.

http://www.aei.org/publication/washington-and-manila-shoulder-to-shoulder/