Social Weather Stations
The First Quarter 2015 Social Weather Survey, fielded from March 20-23, 2015, found that 49% of Filipino adults approve and 46% disapprove the government's actions regarding the tension in the Scarborough Shoal.
To the question, "In general, do you approve or disapprove of our government's actions regarding the tension between China and the Philippines in the Scarborough Shoal? (Sa pangkalahatan, sumasang-ayon po ba kayo o hindi sumasang-ayon sa ikinikilos ng ating gobyerno ukol sa tensyon sa pagitan ng China at Pilipinas sa Scarborough Shoal?)", 16% strongly approve (lubos na sumasang-ayon), 33% somewhat approve (medyo sumasang-ayon), 27% somewhat disapprove (medyo hindi sumasang-ayon), and 19% strongly disapprove (lubos na hindi sumasang-ayon) [Chart 2].
The latest approval of 49% (% strongly approve and % somewhat approve) was 13 points below the 62% (22% strongly approve, 40% somewhat approve) in June 2014, and 16 points below the 65% (27% strongly approve, 38% somewhat approve) in September 2013.
To the question, "In general, do you approve or disapprove of our government's actions regarding the tension between China and the Philippines in the Scarborough Shoal? (Sa pangkalahatan, sumasang-ayon po ba kayo o hindi sumasang-ayon sa ikinikilos ng ating gobyerno ukol sa tensyon sa pagitan ng China at Pilipinas sa Scarborough Shoal?)", 16% strongly approve (lubos na sumasang-ayon), 33% somewhat approve (medyo sumasang-ayon), 27% somewhat disapprove (medyo hindi sumasang-ayon), and 19% strongly disapprove (lubos na hindi sumasang-ayon) [Chart 2].
The latest approval of 49% (% strongly approve and % somewhat approve) was 13 points below the 62% (22% strongly approve, 40% somewhat approve) in June 2014, and 16 points below the 65% (27% strongly approve, 38% somewhat approve) in September 2013.
Worry of armed conflict with China stays high
The March 2015 survey also found that 84% are worried - 49% worried a great deal and 35% somewhat worried - that there will be an armed conflict between the Philippines and China over the disputed islands in Scarborough Shoal [Chart 2]. The remaining 16% are either not too worried or not worried at all.
Worry of an armed conflict with China was also high in the three other surveys since 2012. It was 88% (47% worried a great deal, 41% somewhat worried) in September 2012, 89% (48% worried a great deal, 41% somewhat worried) in September 2013, and 87% (52% worried a great deal, 35% somewhat worried) in June 2014.
Support for government moves in Scarborough Shoal weakens in all areas
Compared to one and a half years ago, public approval of the government's actions regarding the tension in Scarborough Shoal weakened in all areas.
In Metro Manila, approval (% strongly approve and % somewhat approve) fell to 48% in March 2015, from 61% in both September 2013 and June 2014.
In Balance Luzon, it fell to 48%, from 64% in September 2013 and 62% in June 2014.
In the Visayas, it fell to 55%, from 68% in September 2013 and 60% in June 2014.
In Mindanao, it fell to 45%, from 66% in September 2013 and 67% in June 2014
Worry of an armed conflict with China remains high across the board
Since September 2012, worry of an armed conflict with China in the disputed islands of Scarborough Shoal has been high in all areas.
In Metro Manila, the proportion of those worried (% worried a great deal and % somewhat worried) of an armed conflict with China was 86% in September 2012, 81% in September 2013, 88% in June 2014 and 79% in March 2015.
In Balance Luzon, it was 88% in September 2012, 89% in September 2013, 85% in June 2014 and 88% in March 2015.
In the Visayas, it was 87% in September 2012, 90% in September 2013, 88% in June 2014 and 88% in March 2015.
In Mindanao, it was 89% in September 2012, 92% in September 2013, 87% in June 2014 and 80% in March 2015.
Survey Background
The March 2015 Social Weather Survey was conducted from March 20-23, 2015 using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults nationwide, 300 each in Metro Manila, Balance of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao (sampling error margins of 3% for national percentages, and 6% each for Metro Manila, Balance of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao).
The area estimates were weighted by National Statistics Office medium-population projections for 2015 to obtain the national estimates.
The SWS survey questions on public approval of government's actions regarding the tension in the Scarborough Shoal, and worry about an armed conflict with China, are directed to an adult respondent. These items are non-commissioned, and were included on SWS's own initiative and released as a public service, with first printing rights assigned to BusinessWorld.
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Chart 1
Chart 2
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Chart 4
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