PHL, other claimants need be to be firm over territorial row with China — Int'l affairs expert

From GMA News (Jun 11): PHL, other claimants need be to be firm over territorial row with China — Int'l affairs expert

As China aggressively shows its determination to take control of the disputed areas in the South China Sea, other claimant countries should be firm in staking their claims while the US must keep a cool head because the tiff is going to be a “long game,” an expert on international affairs said Wednesday.

In an interview on GMA News TV's "News To Go," Dr. Robert Sutter, a professor of Practice of International Affairs at the Elliott School of George Washington University, said: “At this point, the Chinese remain very determined to move ahead."

[But] “I don't think China will go to war with the US. They are very careful to avoid confrontation with the US," he said.

As with rebalancing policy of the US in the region, Sutter said "it is very important and very good. It shows the Barack Obama administration is in it for a long game.”

He cited the US-China crisis in the Taiwan Strait, which had dragged from 1995 to 2008.

"Both US and Chinese forces were facing each other head to head over Taiwan. We were on alert, they were on alert. One false move and we could have a conflict directly between the forces. That was dangerous, we got through that, I think we'll get through this,” he said.

Sutter said what he is seeing in the territorial disputes is that China "is taking over pieces of territory with Coast Guard forces backed up by economic sanctions and diplomatic threats.”

There are going to be tensions but that will not lead to conflict, he added.

“They (Chinese) are trying to intimidate people but they are not resorting to force because if they did they might engage the US..., [a scenario] China is very wary [about]," he said.

The force being used by China on the ships of the Philippines and Vietnam recently was done by its civilian forces, Sutter said.

“This is not the Army or the Navy and they are very careful to avoid the Army or the Navy doing this because that would be an international confrontation which could involve the United States,” he said.

Aside from China and the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Brunei, and Malaysia have overlapping claims in the South China Sea.

Don't put value on Chinese words

On the other hand, Sutter said claimant countries should not put much value on the words of Chinese officials saying they want the territorial issue to be resolved peacefully.

“They are determined to gain control on this territory, that is the uppermost priority for China," he said.

Vietnam tried hard to engage China, he said, but Beijing's response was the setting up of an oil rig in Paracel Islands, a move Sutter believes is a direct affront to Vietnam.

For a long time, China had wanted to take control of the disputed islands. Now that its capabilities are stronger, it is using its might to achieve its goal.

“The main issue [for China] is nationalism, sovereignty, and security – but the sovereignty in particular. Their Coast Guard is bigger, they are able to surround Philippine ships, they overwhelmed them. These are probes, these are not direct attacks but they are overwhelming. I think they (China) will continue (doing this),” Sutter said.

What should be done?

Sutter said claimant countries must show to China the cost of its aggressive behavior to stop Beijing from bullying them.

He cited the recent US-Philippines enhanced defense agreement as one of the possible "costs" China has to pay for its bullying game.

“China has suffered tremendous reputation cost (because of the issue) but reputation costs don't matter that much to the Chinese when they deal with sovereignty issue because they are very tough on this.

"So it has to come in other ways, one cost is the deepening of the US security presence in the region. China does not want that,” he said.

Sutter said America's increased presence in the region will show China that its actions are provoking the countries to invite the US to have a closer military relationship with them.

“We (the US) can go to China saying we are deepening our relationships with the region, you don't like it one bit, we know that... but we are deepening it anyway because the countries in the region want that for reassurance purposes and so we will continue to do that,” he said.

Other calibrated moves

Aside from a deepening relations between the US and claimant countries, Sutter believes other “calibrated” moves should be done to stop China's aggressive activities in the disputed territories.

“There probably need to be some other cost and I'm not sure what they are now but they have to be very carefully calibrated because the goal isn't to confront China from the US point of view. The goal is to reach some sort of an understanding with the Chinese to stop this kind of behavior,” he said.

Sutter said the US does not take a position on the disputes themselves but has a strong position on the aggressive and coercive moves.

“I think Americans will increasingly take actions that will show the Chinese the cost (of their behavior) and get them to calm down a bit on this issue. It will make them realize that by doing this they are going to face the costs in various ways,” he said.

He said China knows it will not gain much by dragging powerful countries into the dispute.

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/365227/news/nation/phl-other-claimants-need-be-to-be-firm-over-territorial-row-with-china-int-l-affairs-expert