When a Philippine government ship evaded a Chinese blockade
in disputed waters of the South China Sea last
month, a US Navy plane swooped in to witness the dramatic encounter.
The flyover was a vivid illustration of the expanding
significance of one of Asia's most strategic regions and underscored a message
that senior US officials say
President Barack Obama will make in Asia next
week: The "pivot" of US military and diplomatic assets toward the
Asia-Pacific region is real.
During Obama's four-nation tour of Asia that begins on April
23, his toughest challenge will be to reassure skeptical leaders that the
United States intends to be more than just a casual observer and instead is
genuinely committed to countering an increasingly assertive China in the
region.
There is also suspicion among some Asian allies that if they
come under threat from China, the United States - despite treaty obligations to
come to their aid - might craft a response aimed more at controlling damage to
its own vital relationship with China, the world's second-biggest economic
power.
For Obama, the tricky part of the trip, which will include
stops in Japan , South Korea , Malaysia
and the Philippines , will be
deciding how to set limits on China
in a way that soothes US
allies in Asia but avoids stoking tensions with Beijing .
"Obama's upcoming visit will be the most critical test
of this administration's Asia policy,"
said Richard Jacobson, a Manila-based analyst with TD International, a business
risk and strategic consulting firm.
The Asia "pivot" - as the White House initially
dubbed it - represented a strategy to refocus on the region's dynamic economies
as the United States
disentangled itself from costly wars in Iraq
and Afghanistan .
But doubts about Washington 's
commitment to Asia are simmering in some
allied capitals.
"It was a welcome policy change, but will they do
it?" Yukio Okamoto, a former Japanese government adviser on foreign
affairs said of the strategic shift toward Asia
that Obama announced in 2011. "We do not see any actual sign" of its
implementation.
When Obama announced the eastward shift, the most dramatic
symbol of the new policy was the planned deployment of 2,500 US Marines in
northern Australia ,
where they would be primed to respond to regional conflicts. It took until this
month to build up forces to 1,150 Marines based in Darwin , and the full contingent is not due to
be in place until 2017.
"The US
pivot towards Asia has had very few tangible, concrete outcomes so far,"
said Adam Lockyer, a foreign policy and defense analyst at the University of New South Wales .
A sign of anxiety
Obama will try to put those concerns to rest while in Manila , where Philippine
officials say he is expected to sign a security pact that will allow for
increased use of Philippine bases by US ships, aircraft and troops.
Manila's acceptance of a beefed-up US military presence, a
politically sensitive issue in the independent-minded archipelago nation, would
reveal the scale of Philippine anxiety over China.
The Philippine Senate voted to evict the US military from
their bases in 1991, ending 94 years of American military presence in the
Philippines, and has only gradually allowed the return of US forces for limited
operations during the past decade.
The Philippine government is struggling to keep control of
Second Thomas (local name: Ayungin) Shoal, where it has a military outpost on a
reef surrounded by Chinese coastguard ships. The outpost itself is a huge,
rusting World War Two transport vessel that the Philippine navy intentionally
ran aground in 1999 to mark its claim.
Eight or so Filipino soldiers live there for three months at
a time in harsh conditions on a reef that Manila says is within its
200-nautical mile exclusive economic zone. China, which claims 90 percent of
the South China Sea, says the shoal is part of its territory.
Last month, a US surveillance plane was spotted overhead as
a Philippine vessel dodged Chinese coastguard vessels to deliver supplies and
fresh troops to the outpost.
Such US aircraft normally conduct their missions at higher
altitudes, so the fact that its flyover was in full view of journalists
monitoring the incident on the surface below suggested that the United States
wanted to make its presence known. A Chinese plane and a Philippine military
aircraft also flew above the area at different intervals.
The Obama administration has promised that the United States
will reposition naval forces so that 60 percent of its warships are based in
Asia-Pacific by the end of the decade, up from about 50 percent now. But as the
US military budget contracts, that likely would represent part of a shrinking
US defense pie.
Obama's aides brush aside complaints about the US
follow-through on the pivot strategy, saying that no matter how much attention
Washington devotes to friends and partners in the region, the allies will always
want more from their superpower friend.
"Questions by Asia-Pacific allies about the degree of
American commitment has been a constant component of our relationship for
60-plus years. It's not new," said a senior US official, who asked not to
be identified because he was not authorized to comment publicly. "It
doesn't mean the US won't do more to work with them."
Making up for Obama's no-show
Obama himself helped to fuel some of the skepticism about
the United States' commitment to Asia when he abruptly canceled a long-planned
trip to Asia to attend two regional summits last fall and stayed home to deal
with a US government shutdown.
Since then, negotiations have dragged on over a proposed
US-led trans-Pacific trade pact that is widely seen as the economic centerpiece
of Obama's pivot strategy.
In this tense regional climate, Obama can be expected to
appeal directly to Asian leaders to have faith in America's resolve to keep
China in check and discourage any notion that Beijing could emulate Russia's
takeover of Crimea by seizing contested islands and shoals from its neighbors.
"Among countries in Asia, there has been an increase in
the level of anxiety about what lessons China may be drawing from Russia and
Ukraine," the senior US official said.
While sticking to a US refusal to take sides in the maritime
disputes, Obama will seek to reassure South Korea, Japan and the Philippines
that Washington is "fully committed to our defense treaties" with
them, the official said.
Obama's Japanese hosts likely will only be satisfied if the
president takes a tough stand against China and in solidarity with Japan amid
growing concern that Washington's defense commitment may be wavering.
Tokyo and Beijing are locked in a bitter row in the East
China Sea over tiny, uninhabited isles administered by Japan, especially since
China announced the creation of a controversial new air defense zone covering
the area, which the Japanese call Senkaku and the Chinese call Diaoyu.
Relations between Japan and China have been further poisoned
by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's visit to a controversial shrine for war
dead seen as a symbol of Japan's past militarism - a move that drew US
criticism as well.
Obama, the US official said, will send a message during his
Asian tour to China that "it should not use intimidation or coercion"
against its neighbors.
That is not likely to go down well in Beijing, where
visiting US Secretary of State Chuck Hagel faced harsh accusations last week
from Chinese officials who claimed that Washington's regional agenda was aimed
at blocking China's rise.
http://www.interaksyon.com/article/84971/obama-looks-to-salvage-asia-pivot-as-allies-fret-about-china
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