From InterAksyon (Apr 10):
Scarborough Standoff a year later
1) 'Don't take the US side'
Ruan’s advice to the Philippines,
Japan, and Vietnam--countries that have territorial
disputes with China:
“You don’t have to choose. You can play a part in contributing to stabilize
China and
America relations,” which he thinks
is the context in which these disputes are being played. (See numbers 2, 3, and
4.)
“You have every right to push your agenda. But what kind of purpose are you
going to achieve? What kind of message are you sending to rest of the world? To
China?”
According to him, the
Philippines
actions’ sends the message to the world that it has the higher moral ground in
the dispute, and to
China
that the
Philippines
is the underdog.
But Ruan sees the opposite. “I just see the contrary. The Philippine side is
very consistently pushing its own agenda to take advantage of the
US rebalance,” using the leverage that the
Philippines and the
US are treaty allies.
“Maybe you think
America
is on your side. But I like to tell you first of all, China-US relation is
pretty solid, robust,” he said.
Secondly, Americans will think of their interests. In the context of the
territorial disputes in the region, what are
America’s interests? To manage the
tensions in the region while justifying its military engagement in the region,
said Ruan.
When the tipping point is reached,
America will brake and not go to
war over its allies’ interests.
“Will
America
fight for Japanese? I don’t believe it. There’s limited assurance” from the
United States,
he noted.
And why does Ruan think the
US
will not join the fray when push comes to shove? Because…
2) Nobody, not even the US,
can contain China.
With its refocus on Asia, the
US
has put
China
at its crosshairs.
Unfortunately, the Dragon has awakened and its rise to power in the world
stage can no longer be stopped, not even by the
US.
“
China
is far more stronger, more robust than people anticipated,” Ruan said.
“Americans use the rebalance to target
China to some extent. I myself
don’t believe that
America
can contain
China
not anymore. Currently no country, not even US, can contain
China. Nobody
can contain
China
anymore."
This unintended targeting of
China
can be explained by a “trust deficit” between the only superpower left after
the Cold War and a strong fledgling trying its wings.
However, every danger has its opportunities, Ruan said.
3) There is no scenario of a clash between US and China.
While many view the US-China relationship as confrontational, Ruan said the
two countries currently engage in an intense dialogue with a strategic view on
economic and security cooperation.
What proves the “intensity of dialogue” between
China and US? Ninety
government-sponsored institutions making sure that the two countries are
communicating.
One special consultative mechanism is the China-US consultation mechanism on
Asia affairs, with a focus on Asia-Pacific,
Ruan said, revealing an opening for the three countries concerning the
territorial dispute.
“The consensus (between the two countries) is, we cannot afford to go
confrontational. This relationship is so important. We all have a great stake.
We cannot repeat the great power tragedy where a rising power clashes with the
status quo power. The two sides agree, we are not going to repeat that kind of
history," he said.
The kind of major power relation that
China
envisions was revealed during the visit of then Chinese Vice President,
now-Chinese President Xi Jinping to
Washington
DC in February 2012.
His basic idea is that the Asia-Pacific region “is vast enough for rising
China and
America. We don’t have to engage in
a zero-sum game, but engage in positive way for a win-win situation.”
According to Ruan, the Americans responded positively. “There is a growing
consensus we're committed to address any kind of dispute in peaceful ways.
There is no scenario in the future that we will clash,” he said.
4) The US has
refocused on Asia because it is the new
economic growth area.
The
United States has
refocused its attention from the Middle East to Asia because
Asia
is seen to be the next growth engine.
The international macroeconomic situation has not been very healthy,
affecting even Asia:
China’s
growth slowed down to 8 percent last year and this year eyes a slightly lower
7.5 percent growth.
“
Asia’s growth has been consistent and
resilient,” Ruan said.
The region has passed various tests: the 1998 Asian financial crisis and the
2008 meltdown in the West. This has made the region, particularly
East Asia, even stronger.
At same time, the region also engages in institutional building.
“These ready (the region) for unpredictable scenario in the future. I have
every reason to believe that
Asia will go far
better than we expected,” he said.
Unfortunately, “
US views
China’s rise as a kind of concern…This
impressive American rebalance to
Asia triggers
unintended consequences," Ruan said.
5) Against this backdrop, China
will not withdraw from Scarborough.
The
Scarborough shoal is an “integral part
of Chinese territory,” Ruan said. “We have every credible claim on it. Huangyan
(what
China calls
Scarborough, and what the
Philippines
calls Panatag) belongs to
China
far earlier than the Philippine claim.”
The
Philippines may have
had its way in the past arresting and deporting Chinese fishermen in what
China perceives to be part of Chinese territory,
but
China
has now chosen to exert its control over the area.
Ruan insisted that
China’s
actions were reactions, not initiatives. “We were not the first one who fired
the shot. We are doing response,” he said.
Why can’t
China
simply leave and end the conflict? The issue of Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)
is a complicated dispute, and while the
Philippines
may think that
China
has found its aggressive gene, the Chinese people back in the mainland perceive
the Chinese government as being “too weak” and not assertive enough, Ruan said.
“It’s a very sharp contrast. Chinese people think the government is weak. It
is under tremendous pressure,” he said, and
China’s leaders must balance these
two perceptions such that it will not compromise sovereignty and territorial
integrity.
“This is an integral part in understanding Chinese foreign policy,” he said.
6) Seeking a UN arbitration is a deadend.
The
Philippines has the
right to pursue its claims over the outcrops off Zambales through the United
Nations’ Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS), but it must realize that
this process will eventually not move without
China’s participation, Ruan said.
“
China’s
choice is not to participate in the international arbitration. We are not going
to participate,” he said.
Why ?
China
has no basis for participating in that process, which only negatively impacts
it, Ruan said. The core issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity cannot
be solved by an international arbitration, he said.
“Nobody but the parties involved can really address the issue, not even the
UN. Can you expect the UN arbitration to resolve the sovereignty isssue? This
is too heavy a burden for them,” he said.
China’s
rejection of the UN arbitration is not a rejection of the international
community.
China is a member
of many international institutions, and
China “will be responsible in
international affairs,” Ruan said.
On the other hand, Ruan sees the
Philippines’ submission of the
conflict before the United Nations “pretty unsettling.” As the process tries to
move forward without
China,
China cannot send a delegation to meet with the
Philippines on
the issue bilaterally.
Doing so will derail the delicate and tense talks between the two countries.
“We cannot afford to not engage with each other. Sure (the situation is) not
conducive, but we should engage in bilateral talks. It’s difficult to have a
kind of major breakthrough (without talking),” he said.
“We prefer bilateral,” he added, echoing the official Chinese position.
But the
Philippines, from
the beginning, did not want to take this route because it feels that it cannot
take on powerful
China
on its own. It feels that it needs a third party to oversee the talks.
Unfortunately, going to the UN with a third party sends a signal to
China that the
Philippines is not interested in
talking to them, Ruan said.
“We view this action as a kind of unilateral action to escalate issue,” he
said.
At the same time, he said, the UN arbitration way might close another door
for resolution at the ASEAN level.
“I can foretell first of all that it will not be conducive to create
conditionality for (the establishment) of the (proposed) COC (Code of Conduct of
Parties in the
South China Sea) talks,” he
said.
The 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC)
between ASEAN and
China
specifies the adoption of this code.
7) ASEAN is a better platform than the UN.
China
seems to favor a more substantial role for the ASEAN in settling this
territorial dispute, as Ruan said. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations
is as the “natural bridge” between
China and the different players in
the region will “serve ASEAN best.”
This and the commitment of all concerned parties to address problems in
peaceful means, through political dialogue, point to regional bloc’s key role
in conflict resolutions.
Another context in which the China-Philippines relationship exists is the
bigger framework of ASEAN.
China, Ruan said, views
as important not only the bilateral relationship between the
Philippines and
China,
but also the relationship between
China and ASEAN.
The Chinese scholar said
China
understands that the
United
States’ engagement with ASEAN puts the
regional bloc in a “difficult position.
Maintaning a balanced relationship with
China
and the
US
puts is “a difficult dilemma” for ASEAN, he said.
The China-ASEAN relationship is far more important than what we think, he
said.
8) The tenuous threesome or managing this menage a trois: China, the Philippines,
and the US.
“You cannot choose your neighbors,” and the
Philippines
and
China
have been long-time friends, its friendship dating centuries, Ruan noted.
What complicates the relationship is the
US.
China
recognizes that the
Philippines’
special relationship with the
US
is expressed in its Mutual Defense Treaty.
“You are a military ally of the
US. We have to live with it.
America thinks that
China
will drive
America from the
region, but
China has no
capacity to drive
America
away,” he said. “It’s your choice to be friends with other countries."
However, the US-Philippines military partnership worries
China, that this will be used to “harm
China’s
interests. This is what we care about…I have to emphasize: We are concerned
that kind of relationship should not be used against
China.”
The
Philippines plays the
US card to leverage against
China. And
China knows it, making its own bets vis-a-vis
the
Philippines
based on this card.
“One of the instruments the Philippine side tries to explore is the value of
this security relations (with the
US). (The
Philippines) expects Americans to come to the
Philippines’
aid. (The
Philippines) tries
to use this as the upperhand in dealing with
China,” he said.
“(We) don’t take it for granted that you’re an American ally,” he noted.
Ruan said
China
will not use force to resolve the conflict, but said it will be compelled to
match any force used against it.
Is that a threat? “I’m not threatening. That’s just my analysis, my
understanding.
China
must respond. In territory disputes, each case is very different. We have to
grasp each uniqueness,” he said.
9) There’s no magic to repair the friendship. Convergence of
interests will make the relationship more normal.
China
has various territorial disputes with other neighbors that have been resolved
bilaterally, Ruan said.
Of its 14 neighbors,
China
was able to resolve its territorial disputes with
Russia,
Vietnam,
Taiwan, and even
Thailand. These land border
conflicts--more volatile and more difficult to resolve--had a breakthrough
after a period of “high intensity interaction.”
These past successes make him confident that
China
and the
Philippines
will eventually overcome their present difficulties.
“In the long term, we will find a way out. In the meantime, we must careful
how we handle things. The point is it will take us additional effort to make
our relationship work and get it back on track,” he said.
Ruan recognized that the two parties will find it hard to move from their
current positions.
“It’s very difficult for the
Philippines
to back off.
China
will not back off. There are constraints on each other. (The current) low-level
talk is not working in a positive manner.”
How will the parties manage? “Do not give up any bilateral engagement.”
Admitting that the current relationship is “abnormal” where neither party is
satisfied, Ruan said: “Convergence of interests will normalize the
relationship.” Both the
Philippines
and
China
have “every reason to put the relationship on right track. “
“No magic will happen. I wish our relationship will see the light at the end
of the tunnel but not in the near future. We will be stuck in the middle for a
while. We'd love to see a resolution.”
