Thursday, August 27, 2020

Manila would trigger US defence treaty if China fires on warships

From The Australian (Aug 27, 2020): Manila would trigger US defence treaty if China fires on warships


Teddy Locsin in Brussels for the 12th Asia-Europe Meeting Summit in 2018. (By AMANDA HODGE)

The Philippines will trigger its Mutual Defence Treaty with the US if China attacks any of its naval fleet, the country’s Foreign Minister has warned in comments likely to further inflame tensions between Manila and Beijing.

In a television interview, Teddy Locsin also praised the Trump administration for defending state sovereignty and freedom of navigation in the contested South China Sea, and accused the Obama administration of “appeasing” and having “bowed down to China”.

While former president Barack Obama had trumpeted a foreign policy “rebalance” to Asia, it was this Republican administration that had pivoted towards the region and reasserted its commitment to “preserve our country’s freedom”, he said. “The Republican administrations have always been very firm about American commitment to freedom and independence of nations.”

The comments will be welcomed in Washington, which has been lobbying hard for Southeast Asian support in its escalating ­rivalry with China. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has both reasserted US commitment to the 69-year-old mutual defence treaty with its former colony and explicitly rejected China’s Nine Dash Line claims to 90 per cent of the resource-rich waters.

That appears to have emboldened pro-American factions within the government of Rodrigo Duterte, a president who has repeatedly demonstrated his antipathy for The Philippines’ historical US alliance and desire to forge closer ties with Beijing.

Mr Locsin’s public assertion that Manila would call on Washington if faced with a Chinese ­attack in its waters is the first by any senior official within the Duterte government. It comes amid an escalating spat with Beijing, after a Chinese coastguard vessel confiscated Philippines fishing equipment near the disputed Scarborough Shoal.

The fish-rich waters lie within The Philippines’s exclusive economic zone but were seized by China in 2012, triggering an international arbitration case that ultimately invalidated China’s claims over the South China Sea but which Beijing has refused to abide by. Earlier this week, Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana dismissed the nine-dash line map as a “fabrication”, and fumed at Beijing’s description of Philippines military patrols around the Spratly islands as “illegal provocations”.

Asked about the dispute on Wednesday, Mr Locsin said Man­ila would continue its air ­patrols over the South China Sea.

“They can call it illegal provocations, you can’t change their minds. They already lost the arbitral award,” he said, referring to the 2016 ruling in The Hague.

“(But if) something happens that is beyond incursion, that in fact is an attack on, say, a Filipino naval vessel … then I call up Washington DC.”

The Philippines Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea director Jay Batongbacal said the comments demonstrated a growing assertiveness among those within the Duterte government seeking to preserve the US alliance. “But the lack of unity on policy position means that (in the event of an incident with China) there will be hesitation on the part of The Philippines’ government and that might be all that’s ­needed for a crisis to be resolved in China’s favour,” Professor Batong­bacal said.

Since his 2016 election, Mr Duterte has scaled back Philippine military exercises with the US, threatened to end the MDT and announced Manila’s withdrawal from its Visiting Forces Agreement with the US, only to reverse that decision a few months later. That has led many to question the value to the US of the treaty, given US forces have not had a permanent base in The Philippines since Manila kicked them out of Subic Bay in 1992.

“Right now you would be hard-pressed to find real strategic consideration for why we are still in this alliance,” Singapore-based maritime security analyst Blake Herzinger told The Australian.

“People point to the strategic geography — The Philippines being part of the first island chain — but we don’t have access to it.

“This idea (The Philippines) wants the US at arms’ length but to come when they call — that’s not going to fly. We need to figure out what The Philippines is going to do to be a contributing member of this alliance, otherwise they run the risk of being a Thailand-esque ally where it’s an alliance in name only.”

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/world/manila-would-trigger-us-defence-treaty-if-china-fires-on-warships/news-story/60c0112b8ddcb2437d17895af4ea77f7

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