PHL-China sea row not likely to trigger major military confrontation – analysts

From GMA News (Apr 2): PHL-China sea row not likely to trigger major military confrontation – analysts

Territorial conflicts between the Philippines and China would not likely trigger a major military confrontation, according to analysts, but they warned the tense situation in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) could lead to miscalculations or accidents that will spark brief skirmishes.

The Philippine case advanced to the next stage when it submitted before The Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration last Sunday a 4,000-page document, called a memorial, containing legal evidence and maps to bolster its complaint against China.

Manila’s submission, analysts said, could set off a series of retaliatory moves by China, but war may be a far-fetched option.

They can retaliate in many different ways not just the military way,” said Syracuse University Professor Marwyn Samuels at a conference held at the Asian Institute of Management in Manila Wednesday.

China has said the Philippines’ move to bring its disputes over the resource-rich waters was a “mistake” that “seriously damaged” relations between them.

Samuels said there are “all kinds of other possibilities” of putting pressure on the Philippines that does not resort to military attack. But if miscalculation occurs, Samuels believes any confrontation would be “low-level.”

China, he said, “will try to diminish it” and “make sure the events are small and quick.”

Asked on the possibility of China crossing the military line, Samuels said: “They will try not to and they don’t want to.”

“A lot of China’s strategy is deterrence, to be very tough and very strong, to react if they need to, but not too much or not too harsh,” he said.

The Philippines said it decided to seek arbitration after all its efforts, including bilateral talks, failed to prevent Chinese incursions over its territories.

But China argued arbitration is not a guarantee that it will resolve the disputes and instead urged the Philippines to resume bilateral talks to resolve their territorial row.

Direct negotiations had proven “successful” for China, its embassy in Manila said, noting it has settled boundary and territorial issues with 14 of its land neighbors in an “equitable and reasonable way,” including one with another South China Sea claimant – Vietnam.

Manila and Beijing have been embroiled in a long-running territorial row over some parts of South China Sea which Philippine officials say are within the country’s jurisdiction, but is being claimed by China as its own. Areas in the South China Sea that fall within Philippines’ exclusive economic zone were renamed West Philippine Sea by Manila.

Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have rivaling claims to the waters where undersea oil and gas deposits have been discovered.

China said it will not join the arbitration proceedings, saying  Manila’s case carries unacceptable allegations and lacks legal merit.

It argued that the five-man tribunal, operating under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, does not have jurisdiction over Manila’s case because it does not apply on resolving territorial disputes.

China claims historical and indisputable claim over nearly the entire South China Sea, an assertion the Philippines branded as “excessive” and “a violation of international law.”

Prior to Manila’s filing of the memorial, China was reported to have blocked supplies, food and fresh troops to an offshore military outpost in Philippine-claimed Ayungin Shoal.

Former ABC News Beijing Bureau Chief Chito Sta. Romana, who has worked in China for nearly four decades, warned that the margin of error on both sides “is really very small.”

“I agree with the policy of maximum tolerance, maximum restraint and not to open fire first because the Chinese policy is if you fire or attack, they will certainly counterattack,” Sta. Romana said.

“The idea is for us not to make a mistake: to ram their ship, to arrest their fishermen, to fire at the Chinese fishermen. If we make any of those mistakes, I think we lose an island,” Sta. Romana said.

Any miscalculation by the Filipino government and military, would be very costly for the Philippines, Sta. Romana warned.

“If we make another mistake I think the Chinese will probe the weak spots and if they could achieve it, they would want to control all the disputed islands before a decision (by the tribunal) is made,” he said.

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/355218/news/nation/phl-china-sea-row-not-likely-to-trigger-major-military-confrontation-analysts