DUTERTE'S VOLTE-FACE | Del Rosario calls pivoting away from US a national tragedy

From InterAksyon (Oct 22): DUTERTE'S VOLTE-FACE | Del Rosario calls pivoting away from US a national tragedy



Former foreign secretary Albert del Rosario. Photograph from DFA

A "national tragedy: is how former Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert Del Rosario described President Rodrigo Duterte's announcement, in the Chinese capital Beijing, of a pivot away from certain alignments with the United States of America.

In an interview with News 5 on Friday, Del Rosario said it is "unwise and incomprehensible" to turn away from the United States over China: "This declared shift in foreign policy, casting aside a long-time reliable ally, to hastily embrace an aggressive neighbor that vehemently rejects international law".

The former chief of the Philippine foreign office had spearheaded the filing of the nation's arbitration case against China regarding tension in the West Philippine Sea, which the tribunal panel at The Hague unanimously ruled in favor of the Philippines.

Furthermore, Del Rosario stressed, this "unfortunate" turn of events must be corrected: "What's unfolding must be considered a national tragedy, which does not need to happen."

SKEPTICISM

In spite of Duterte's amiable stance towards China, Beijing had manifested skepticism over Duterte's pronouncements over the possible phase-out of joint US-PH military exercises and related matters.

In a WeChat video interview with Chinese political analyst and Beijing Chief Correspondent to Washington of China Radio International, Mr. Xu Qinduo expressed the Chinese interpretation: "Diplomatic, yes ... but this is just the talk; what we need is walk the talk."

For Beijing it's still too early to arrive at a conclusion as to what President Duterte wants to infer. However, the most important thing of the recent state visit was the reopening of the bilateral talks between the two countries that had been somewhat muted under the Benigno Aquino administration. Furthermore, Duterte had taken the initiative not to discuss with Chinese President Xi Jinping the issue in South China Sea and the Arbitration's ruling.

Meanwhile, President Duterte's rhetoric was met by a cautious Chinese tip-toe: "From Beijing's point of view, we are more than happy to develop closer relationship with the Philippines in trade, economics, tourism and even joint patrols in the South China Sea, but not necessarily to mean at the expense of Washington and Manila's relationship ... Beijing has no intention to challenge the United States or confront the U.S. on that matter."

LOOPHOLES

Analyzing the President's words in Beijing and letting the message percolate can be tricky, according to Professor Richard Heydarian of De La Salle University: "He used separation, not severance, and he said 'I', and not 'my country' – not the Republic of the Philippines. So there's room for deniability."

It's as if this could be Duterte's way of signaling to the U.S. how much he dislikes them but the Filipino people are excluded from his personal disgruntlement.

Moreover, Heydarian indicated, Duterte might just be tending to please China by overwhelmingly praising it and also for United States to be on its toes, that if they keep up the cadence on the violent war on the spate of summary killings related to the war on criminality and drugs, "Eh may option ako dito sa China (I have an option leaning toward China)."

The geopolitical analyst also emphasized that President Duterte would do better by exercising greater circumspect with every word that he's been dispensing.

WORDS DO MATTER
In a roundtable discussion with journalists at the U.S., Greg Poling, Director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative of Center of Strategic and International Studies (AMTI –CSIS), talked about current US-PHrelations, expressing agreement with Duterte's move in enhancing Philippines ties with China, but adding in the same vein that this shouldn't be at the expense of America: "I do not understand why the efforts to reach to a new friend have to abandon the old one."

Furthermore, while Washington's tact might be treat Duterte's scathing remarks as not in the nature of formal statements, Poling said, words do matter and, yes, that the U.S. is counting everything: "All of the words that the a head-of-state said counts whether he likes it or not; you cannot say that, oh you should not listen to me because I'm just the President ... If he's wrong, by the time realizes it, he might have done untold damage with our alliance," Poling remarked.

Poling pointed out that, without the U.S., China could already have aggressively coerced the Philippine Navy at Ayungin Shoal and Scarborough Shoal. "The Philippines leverage against China on the South China Sea dispute is its security umbrella from the U.S.".

http://www.interaksyon.com/article/133581/dutertes-volte-face--del-rosario-calls-pivoting-away-from-us-a-national-tragedy