Defense officials want everyone to drop the buzz phrase 'minimum credible deterrence' and instead use 'credible deterrence' as the motivation for the AFP's modernization
PATROLS: Philippine Navy's illustration of the brand new frigates it plans to acquire
There are new buzz words and new targets that observers of the modernization efforts of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) need to know.
There's first
horizon and second horizon – your first two buzz words – as defense officials
are now discussing the “second horizon” of AFP modernization as the “first
horizon” makes significant advances.
The first horizon
refers to the P90.86 billion allocation provided by the Aquino administration
under the Revised AFP Modernization law seeking to modernize the military in
the wake of China ’s
aggression in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea ).
It is not much
compared to the defense budgets of neighboring countries but it has been the
most aggressive modernization by one of Asia ’s
weakest militaries.
The first
horizon, which is set to be completed by 2017, includes the 12 fighter jets –
two of which are arriving at the end of the year – and the long-delayed two
frigates that the Department of National Defense (DND) is hoping to bid out in
the first quarter. These are the two big-ticket items in a list of 91 projects
funded by the P90-billion modernization fund.
As most of these
items await deliveries, defense officials want everyone to drop the buzz phrase
“minimum credible deterrence” as the motivation for the modernization. The goal
now is “credible deterrence” because how does one measure “minimum” anyway,
asked one official.
Note to
Aquino successor
Defense officials
are now in the thick of meetings to identify priorities under the “second
horizon” of modernization slated between 2018 and 2023.
DND
Undersecretary for Finance, Munitions and Materiel Fernando Manalo said it’s
premature to enumerate the items but it will focus on areas of concern.
“The second
horizon will probably be heavy on HADR (Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster
Response) and the West Philippine Sea and not
so much on the ISO (International Security Operations) because we are expecting
that ISO will not be so intense in the next 5 years and what we have already
acquired should be sufficient to address ISO,” said Manalo.
This should mean
additional frigates for the Philippine Navy to complete its minimum requirement
of 6 frigates to effectively patrol the country’s waters and the possible
acquisition of multi-role fighters, which is more sophisticated than the FA-50
lead-in fighter trainers that the PAF are getting.
Based on Manalo’s
estimates, the second horizon will need a budget that is “much higher than
[the] P90 billion” allocated for the first horizon. It is a commitment that the
security sector will need to get from the successor of President Benigno Aquino
III who is stepping down in 2016.
Manalo
said the J5 (Office of
the AFP deputy chief of staff for plans) and the Office of the assistant
secretary for plans and programs are finalizing the list for the second
horizon.
“I think within
the year, the Department of National Defense will be able to submit the
proposed modernization for the second horizon,” Manalo added.
Third
horizon to complete the P600-B requirement
There is a “third
horizon” in the pipeline – covering the period 2024-2028 – in the hope that the
second horizon will not meet the fate of the original AFP Modernization law –
the precursor of the Revised AFP Modernization law – that promised P330 billion
in modernization funds but went pfft.
Manalo could not
give estimates on the cost of the third horizon but all 3 horizons, he said,
should “not less than twice” the original funding provided by the original law,
meaning, P660 billion.
http://www.rappler.com/nation/80069-price-tag-ph-military-modernization
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