% are aware of the PH-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty
SWS Special Report (printer-friendly version here)
In advance of the 67th year of the Mutual Defense Treaty between the Republic of the Philippines and the United States of America in August 2018, the Second Quarter 2018 Social Weather Survey found that 61% of adult Filipinos believe (strongly plus somewhat believe) the U.S. will defend the Philippines in case of an invasion by another country.
The survey, conducted from June 27-30, 2018, asked, “How much do you believe or not believe that the United States will defend the Philippines in case we are invaded by another country? [Gaano po kayo naniniwala o hindi naniniwala na ipagtatanggol ng Estados Unidos ang Pilipinas kapag sinalakay tayo ng ibang bansa?]”
To this, 61% said they believe the U.S. will defend the Philippines (31% strongly believe, 30% somewhat believe), 9% said they did not (6% somewhat not believe, 3% strongly not believe), and 30% were undecided [Chart 1].
The June 2018 survey also found that 47% were aware of the PH-US Mutual Defense Treaty even before the survey, while 53% learned about it only during the interview [Chart 2].
Belief in the U.S. defense commitment is stronger among those previously aware of the PH-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty
Among those aware of the PH-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty even before the survey, 80% believe (48% strongly believe, 32% somewhat believe) that the U.S. will defend the Philippines in case of an invasion [Chart 3].
This is almost twice the 45% who believe (17% strongly believe, 28% somewhat believe) in the U.S. defense commitment among those who became aware of the PH-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty on account of the survey.
Awareness of the PH-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty is highest in Metro Manila, urban areas, among the upper classes, and among the more educated groups
The proportion of those previously aware of the PH-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty was highest in Metro Manila at 58%, followed by Balance Luzon at 53%, Visayas at 41%, and Mindanao at 31% [Chart 4].
It was 55% in overall urban areas, compared to 38% in overall rural areas.
By class, it was highest in class ABC at 51%, followed by class D at 49%, and class E at 34% [Chart 5].
It was highest among college graduates at 67%, followed by high school graduates at 51%, elementary graduates at 42%, and non-elementary graduates at 27% [Chart 6].
Belief in the U.S. defense commitment strongest in Balance Luzon and urban areas
The proportion of those who believe that the U.S. will defend the Philippines in case of invasion by another country was highest in Balance Luzon at 70%, followed by Metro Manila at 64%, Visayas at 54%, and Mindanao at 48% [Chart 7].
It was higher in overall urban areas at 66%, compared to overall rural areas at 56%.
It hardly varied by class, ranging from 60% to 65% [Chart 8].
It was slightly higher among elementary graduates and above, ranging from 61% to 69%, compared to non-elementary graduates at 53% [Chart 9].
Higher awareness of the PH-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty among those previously aware of the PH-China dispute in the West Philippine Sea
The proportion of those who know about the PH-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty even before the survey was higher among those who were previously aware of the PH-China dispute in the West Philippine Sea, at 54%, compared to those who learned about the PH-China dispute only during the interview, at 14% [Chart 10].
The survey also found that previous awareness about the PH-US Mutual Defense Treaty was highest among those with extensive knowledge about the PH-China dispute in the West Philippine Sea (73%), followed by those with adequate knowledge (57%), those with only a little knowledge (49%), and those with very little knowledge (36%) [Chart 11].
Belief in the U.S. defense commitment is stronger among those previously aware of the PH-China dispute in the West Philippine Sea
The proportion of those who believe that the U.S. will defend the Philippines in case of an invasion by another country was higher among those previously aware of the PH-China dispute in the West Philippine Sea, at 67% (35% strongly believe, 32% somewhat believe), compared to those who became aware of the PH-China dispute only during the survey, at 36% (15% strongly believe, 21% somewhat believe) [Chart 12].
Belief in the U.S. defense commitment was higher among those with extensive knowledge about the PH-China dispute in the West Philippine Sea (82%), compared to those with adequate knowledge (40%), only a little knowledge (49%), and very little knowledge (36%) [Chart 13].
Survey background
The June 2018 Social Weather Survey was conducted from June 27-30, 2018 using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults (18 years old and above) nationwide: 300 each in Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages, and ±6% each for Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao).
The area estimates were weighted by Philippine Statistics Authority medium-population projections for 2018 to obtain the national estimates.
The Social Weather Survey items on people’s opinion about the PH-US Mutual Defense Treaty were non-commissioned. They were included on SWS's own initiative and released as a public service.
Questionnaire
The exact survey questions are as follows:
STATEMENT CARD: Ang Mutual Defense Treaty sa pagitan ng Pilipinas at Estados Unidos ay pinirmahan noong Agosto 30, 1951, sa Washington, D.C. ng mga kinatawan ng Pilipinas at Estados Unidos. Sinasabi ng pangkalahatang kasunduan na ipagtatanggol ng Estados Unidos ang Pilipinas kapag ito ay sinalakay ng ibang bansa, at ipagtatanggol din ng Pilipinas ang Estados Unidos kapag ito ay sinalakay. [The Mutual Defense Treaty between the Philippines and the United States of America was signed on August 30, 1951, in Washington, D.C. by representatives of the Philippines and the United States. The overall treaty stated that the United States will defend the Philippines if it is invaded by another country, and the Philippines will also defend the United States if it is invaded.]
Q130. Dati na po ba ninyong alam ang kasunduang ito sa pagitan ng Pilipinas at Estados Unidos, o ngayon lamang ninyo ito narinig? (Dati nang alam; Ngayon lamang narinig) [Were you previously aware about this treaty between the Philippines and the United States of America, or did you know about this only now? (Previously aware; Heard about it only now)]
Q131. Gaano po kayo Naniniwala o Hindi naniniwala na ipagtatanggol ng Estados Unidos ang Pilipinas kapag sinalakay tayo ng ibang bansa? Masasabi po ba ninyo na kayo ay… (Showcard: Lubos na naniniwala; Medyo naniniwala; Hindi tiyak kung naniniwala o hindi; Medyo hindi naniniwala; Lubos na hindi naniniwala)? [How much do you believe or not believe that the United States will defend the Philippines in case we are invaded by another country? Would you say that you… (Showcard: Strongly believe; Somewhat believe; Undecided if believe or not; Somewhat not believe; Strongly not believe)?]
SWS employs its own staff for questionnaire design, sampling, fieldwork, data-processing, and analysis, and does not outsource any of its survey operations. This report was prepared by Leo S. Laroza and Judith C. Valencia, with special tabulations by Joanne Evangelista.
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https://www.sws.org.ph/swsmain/artcldisppage/?artcsyscode=ART-20181212104148
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