Negative arbitral ruling is death of UNCLOS: Carpio

From The Standard (Apr 1): Negative arbitral ruling is death of UNCLOS: Carpio

SUPREME Court Associate Justice Antonio Carpio yesterday warned of the “death of UNCLOS (UN Convention on the Law of the Sea)” if a UN arbitral court does not rule on the case lodged by the Philippines against China’s nine-dash line claim in the South China Sea in the next few weeks.

Carpio drew up the worst-case scenario before military and defense officials in a forum as the US and China traded barbs over the latter’s perceived plan to declare an air defense identification zone (ADIZ) over its claimed territory.

Carpio said once the arbitral panel makes an unfavorable ruling, China may enforce its nine-dash line claim, which would make Southeast Asian countries resort to an arms race to protect their shrinking territorial waters.

“China will block or harass Philippine, Vietnamese, Malaysia re-supply to islands they occupy in the Spratlys, the legal dispute over the waters enclosed by the nine-dashed lines continues,” he said.

Carpio said “the only defense of other coastal states against Chinese encroachment is to acquire warships, warplanes and missiles…The naval arms race will accelerate.”

He said the tension will increase because the US and its allies would conduct more freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, which China will oppose.

In a later interview, Carpio said the worst-case scenario he presented will spell the death of UNCLOS “because that means UNCLOS cannot settle the most important maritime dispute today.”

“And if it cannot settle, then it’s useless. People will not go to avail of the remedies under UNCLOS. They will just buy warships, warplanes and anti-ship missiles to defend their maritime zones,” he said.

Carpio said the territorial dispute as the “largest threat” to the Philippines since World War II “because an area larger that our land area is being encroached and taken away from us, seized away from us.”

He said Vietnam and Brunei stand to lose more because they will no longer have an EEZ while the Philippines would still have an EEZ on the Pacific side.

If tension continues to rise, he said the government would have to rechannel its resources for education, social services and infrastructure to acquiring military assets.

“A lot of balancing has to be done, we have to strengthen our alliances because we cannot acquire assets overnight, it takes time,” he said.

But if the arbitral court declares the nine-dash line as void, he said the Philippines will have its full 200-mile exclusive economic zone.

Carpio said such a ruling would mean Taiwan’s Itu Aba will not have an EEZ since it is not capable of human habitation.

He said it would also confirm the status of Low Tide Elevations identified by Philippines, and Scarborough Shoal will only have a territorial sea.

He said the scenario means that LTEs within the Philippines’ EEZ (including the Chinese-occupied Mischief Reef) and extended continental shelf (like the Chinese-occupied Subi Reef), “form part of the Philippines’ submerged continental shelf (and) only the Philippines can erect structures on such LTEs.”

“We’ll I’m very optimistic that the second scenario will prevail, the best-case scenario, because the worst-case scenario is something, the world will lose, the entire world will suffer, and I don’t think the tribunal will do that,” said Carpio in an interview.

EXCLUSION ZONE

In Washington, US Deputy Secretary of Defense Robert Work told China on Wednesday it will not recognize an exclusion zone in the South China Sea and would view such a move as “destabilizing.”

Work told an event hosted by the Washington Post that the United States would not recognize such an exclusion zone in the South China Sea, just as it did not recognize the one China established in the East China Sea.

“We don’t believe they have a basis in international law, and we’ve said over and over (that) we will fly, sail and go wherever international law allows,” Work said.

“We have spoken quite plainly to our Chinese counterparts and said that we think an ADIZ would be destabilizing. We would prefer that all of the claims in the South China Sea be handled through mediation and not force or coercion,” he said.

Work spoke as Chinese President Xi Jinping prepared to visit Washington for a nuclear security summit this week.

In Beijing, China’s Defense Ministry on Thursday denounced as gesticulation the speculation it would declare an air defense zone over the South China Sea.

http://www.malaya.com.ph/business-news/news/negative-arbitral-ruling-death-unclos-carpio