Scarborough Standoff a year later

From InterAksyon (Apr 10): Scarborough Standoff a year later

1) 'Don't take the US side'

Ruan’s advice to the Philippines, Japan, and Vietnam--countries that have territorial disputes with China:

“You don’t have to choose. You can play a part in contributing to stabilize China and America relations,” which he thinks is the context in which these disputes are being played. (See numbers 2, 3, and 4.)

“You have every right to push your agenda. But what kind of purpose are you going to achieve? What kind of message are you sending to rest of the world? To China?”

According to him, the Philippines actions’ sends the message to the world that it has the higher moral ground in the dispute, and to China that the Philippines is the underdog.

But Ruan sees the opposite. “I just see the contrary. The Philippine side is very consistently pushing its own agenda to take advantage of the US rebalance,” using the leverage that the Philippines and the US are treaty allies.

“Maybe you think America is on your side. But I like to tell you first of all, China-US relation is pretty solid, robust,” he said.

Secondly, Americans will think of their interests. In the context of the territorial disputes in the region, what are America’s interests? To manage the tensions in the region while justifying its military engagement in the region, said Ruan.

When the tipping point is reached, America will brake and not go to war over its allies’ interests.

“Will America fight for Japanese? I don’t believe it. There’s limited assurance” from the United States, he noted.

And why does Ruan think the US will not join the fray when push comes to shove? Because…

2) Nobody, not even the US, can contain China.

With its refocus on Asia, the US has put China at its crosshairs.

Unfortunately, the Dragon has awakened and its rise to power in the world stage can no longer be stopped, not even by the US.

“China is far more stronger, more robust than people anticipated,” Ruan said. “Americans use the rebalance to target China to some extent. I myself don’t believe that America can contain China not anymore. Currently no country, not even US, can contain China. Nobody can contain China anymore."

This unintended targeting of China can be explained by a “trust deficit” between the only superpower left after the Cold War and a strong fledgling trying its wings.

However, every danger has its opportunities, Ruan said.

3) There is no scenario of a clash between US and China.

While many view the US-China relationship as confrontational, Ruan said the two countries currently engage in an intense dialogue with a strategic view on economic and security cooperation.

What proves the “intensity of dialogue” between China and US? Ninety government-sponsored institutions making sure that the two countries are communicating.

One special consultative mechanism is the China-US consultation mechanism on Asia affairs, with a focus on Asia-Pacific, Ruan said, revealing an opening for the three countries concerning the territorial dispute.

“The consensus (between the two countries) is, we cannot afford to go confrontational. This relationship is so important. We all have a great stake. We cannot repeat the great power tragedy where a rising power clashes with the status quo power. The two sides agree, we are not going to repeat that kind of history," he said.

The kind of major power relation that China envisions was revealed during the visit of then Chinese Vice President, now-Chinese President Xi Jinping to Washington DC in February 2012.

His basic idea is that the Asia-Pacific region “is vast enough for rising China and America. We don’t have to engage in a zero-sum game, but engage in positive way for a win-win situation.”

According to Ruan, the Americans responded positively. “There is a growing consensus we're committed to address any kind of dispute in peaceful ways. There is no scenario in the future that we will clash,” he said.

4) The US has refocused on Asia because it is the new economic growth area.

The United States has refocused its attention from the Middle East to Asia because Asia is seen to be the next growth engine.

The international macroeconomic situation has not been very healthy, affecting even Asia: China’s growth slowed down to 8 percent last year and this year eyes a slightly lower 7.5 percent growth.

“Asia’s growth has been consistent and resilient,” Ruan said.

The region has passed various tests: the 1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2008 meltdown in the West. This has made the region, particularly East Asia, even stronger.

At same time, the region also engages in institutional building.

“These ready (the region) for unpredictable scenario in the future. I have every reason to believe that Asia will go far better than we expected,” he said.

Unfortunately, “US views China’s rise as a kind of concern…This impressive American rebalance to Asia triggers unintended consequences," Ruan said.

5) Against this backdrop, China will not withdraw from Scarborough.

The Scarborough shoal is an “integral part of Chinese territory,” Ruan said. “We have every credible claim on it. Huangyan (what China calls Scarborough, and what the Philippines calls Panatag) belongs to China far earlier than the Philippine claim.”

The Philippines may have had its way in the past arresting and deporting Chinese fishermen in what China perceives to be part of Chinese territory, but China has now chosen to exert its control over the area.

Ruan insisted that China’s actions were reactions, not initiatives. “We were not the first one who fired the shot. We are doing response,” he said.

Why can’t China simply leave and end the conflict? The issue of Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) is a complicated dispute, and while the Philippines may think that China has found its aggressive gene, the Chinese people back in the mainland perceive the Chinese government as being “too weak” and not assertive enough, Ruan said.

“It’s a very sharp contrast. Chinese people think the government is weak. It is under tremendous pressure,” he said, and China’s leaders must balance these two perceptions such that it will not compromise sovereignty and territorial integrity.

“This is an integral part in understanding Chinese foreign policy,” he said.

6) Seeking a UN arbitration is a deadend.

The Philippines has the right to pursue its claims over the outcrops off Zambales through the United Nations’ Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS), but it must realize that this process will eventually not move without China’s participation, Ruan said.

“China’s choice is not to participate in the international arbitration. We are not going to participate,” he said.

Why ? China has no basis for participating in that process, which only negatively impacts it, Ruan said. The core issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity cannot be solved by an international arbitration, he said.

“Nobody but the parties involved can really address the issue, not even the UN. Can you expect the UN arbitration to resolve the sovereignty isssue? This is too heavy a burden for them,” he said.

China’s rejection of the UN arbitration is not a rejection of the international community. China is a member of many international institutions, and China “will be responsible in international affairs,” Ruan said.

On the other hand, Ruan sees the Philippines’ submission of the conflict before the United Nations “pretty unsettling.” As the process tries to move forward without China, China cannot send a delegation to meet with the Philippines on the issue bilaterally.

Doing so will derail the delicate and tense talks between the two countries.

“We cannot afford to not engage with each other. Sure (the situation is) not conducive, but we should engage in bilateral talks. It’s difficult to have a kind of major breakthrough (without talking),” he said.

“We prefer bilateral,” he added, echoing the official Chinese position.

But the Philippines, from the beginning, did not want to take this route because it feels that it cannot take on powerful China on its own. It feels that it needs a third party to oversee the talks.

Unfortunately, going to the UN with a third party sends a signal to China that the Philippines is not interested in talking to them, Ruan said.

“We view this action as a kind of unilateral action to escalate issue,” he said.

At the same time, he said, the UN arbitration way might close another door for resolution at the ASEAN level.

“I can foretell first of all that it will not be conducive to create conditionality for (the establishment) of the (proposed) COC (Code of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea) talks,” he said.

The 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) between ASEAN and China specifies the adoption of this code.

7) ASEAN is a better platform than the UN.

China seems to favor a more substantial role for the ASEAN in settling this territorial dispute, as Ruan said. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations is as the “natural bridge” between China and the different players in the region will “serve ASEAN best.”

This and the commitment of all concerned parties to address problems in peaceful means, through political dialogue, point to regional bloc’s key role in conflict resolutions.

Another context in which the China-Philippines relationship exists is the bigger framework of ASEAN.

China, Ruan said, views as important not only the bilateral relationship between the Philippines and China, but also the relationship between China and ASEAN.

The Chinese scholar said China understands that the United States’ engagement with ASEAN puts the regional bloc in a “difficult position.

Maintaning a balanced relationship with China and the US puts is “a difficult dilemma” for ASEAN, he said.

The China-ASEAN relationship is far more important than what we think, he said.

8) The tenuous threesome or managing this menage a trois: China, the Philippines, and the US.

“You cannot choose your neighbors,” and the Philippines and China have been long-time friends, its friendship dating centuries, Ruan noted.

What complicates the relationship is the US. China recognizes that the Philippines’ special relationship with the US is expressed in its Mutual Defense Treaty.

“You are a military ally of the US. We have to live with it. America thinks that China will drive America from the region, but China has no capacity to drive America away,” he said. “It’s your choice to be friends with other countries."

However, the US-Philippines military partnership worries China, that this will be used to “harm China’s interests. This is what we care about…I have to emphasize: We are concerned that kind of relationship should not be used against China.”

The Philippines plays the US card to leverage against China. And China knows it, making its own bets vis-a-vis the Philippines based on this card.

“One of the instruments the Philippine side tries to explore is the value of this security relations (with the US). (The Philippines) expects Americans to come to the Philippines’ aid. (The Philippines) tries to use this as the upperhand in dealing with China,” he said.

“(We) don’t take it for granted that you’re an American ally,” he noted.

Ruan said China will not use force to resolve the conflict, but said it will be compelled to match any force used against it.

Is that a threat? “I’m not threatening. That’s just my analysis, my understanding. China must respond. In territory disputes, each case is very different. We have to grasp each uniqueness,” he said.

9) There’s no magic to repair the friendship. Convergence of interests will make the relationship more normal.

China has various territorial disputes with other neighbors that have been resolved bilaterally, Ruan said.

Of its 14 neighbors, China was able to resolve its territorial disputes with Russia, Vietnam, Taiwan, and even Thailand. These land border conflicts--more volatile and more difficult to resolve--had a breakthrough after a period of “high intensity interaction.”

These past successes make him confident that China and the Philippines will eventually overcome their present difficulties.

“In the long term, we will find a way out. In the meantime, we must careful how we handle things. The point is it will take us additional effort to make our relationship work and get it back on track,” he said.

Ruan recognized that the two parties will find it hard to move from their current positions.

“It’s very difficult for the Philippines to back off. China will not back off. There are constraints on each other. (The current) low-level talk is not working in a positive manner.”

How will the parties manage? “Do not give up any bilateral engagement.”

Admitting that the current relationship is “abnormal” where neither party is satisfied, Ruan said: “Convergence of interests will normalize the relationship.” Both the Philippines and China have “every reason to put the relationship on right track. “

“No magic will happen. I wish our relationship will see the light at the end of the tunnel but not in the near future. We will be stuck in the middle for a while. We'd love to see a resolution.”

http://www.interaksyon.com/article/59127/scarborough-standoff-a-year-later--1-dont-take-the-us-side