The historic peace settlement for Mindanao could be in danger of unraveling after Malacanang on Wednesday admitted the draft Bangsamoro Basic Law may be passed in the first quarter of 2015 instead of December and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front accused the government of going back on its word.
Even with the delay, Palace spokesman Edwin Lacierda said
there would still be enough time to conduct a plebiscite on the creation of the
new homeland and put in place the Bangsamoro Transition Authority next year,
ahead of the 2016 elections.
"We are certainly still hoping for the best ... We hope
we can expedite the process," Lacierda said in a briefing aired over
state-run Radyo ng Bayan.
He said the leaderships of the Senate and House of
Representatives were just being "practical" in extending the target
period for the passage of the draft BBL.
'Time running out' - Speaker
On Monday, Speaker Feliciano Belmonte Jr. said the continued
delay in Malacanang’s submission of the draft BBL to Congress made it
impossible to commit to the passage of the measure by year’s end.
"Time is running out. Moreover there are many
congressmen from Mindanao who would be more
concerned,” Belmonte said.
The government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front peace
panels are currently in Davao City working to break an impasse over the draft law,
which is the result of the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro signed by
both parties in March to end decades of fighting in Mindanao .
A breakdown would risk a return to violence and a blow to
hopes for an economic revival for resource-rich Mindanao
as potential investors in sectors such as agriculture and mining wait on the
sidelines for the peace deal to be implemented.
Large companies such as food processor Del Monte Pacific
Limited, which has a pineapple plantation in Mindanao, had said they were
considering expanding operations after the deal.
But most major foreign companies have held back pending
evidence of a lasting settlement.
Under the pact, the MILF agreed to disband its guerrilla
force and rebuild communities in exchange for wider powers to control the
region's economy and society.
The joint Bangsamoro Transition Commission agreed details of
the region's powers and relations with the central government this year,
submitting a draft law for approval by Congress.
'Unacceptable'
But the hitherto smooth progress has stalled after Aquino's
legal team made surprise, sweeping changes to the draft law which the MILF says
contravene the earlier agreement and would place unacceptable limits on their
autonomy.
"We cannot accept this proposed law as it is,"
Mohagher Iqbal, the MILF's chief negotiator, told Reuters.
"We will lose face if we agree to this. Their version
clearly departed from the letter and spirit of the peace agreement, which was
the basis in crafting the proposed law."
Iqbal's comments to Reuters are the first public indication
that the agreement is close to collapse.
He said about 70 percent of the nearly 100-page draft BBL
was either deleted or revised by Aquino's lawyers, who reviewed the document
for two months after it was submitted in late April for vetting.
A copy of the revised legislation seen by Reuters showed
entire sections of articles on territory, resources, and government structure
had been deleted or revised.
Aquino’s capital fades
The peace deal -- including provisions on revenue sharing
between the new region and the national government -- was the product of more
than 17 years of negotiations, brokered by Malaysia
Analysts say the law appears to have fallen victim to recent
legal and political setbacks suffered by Aquino, whose approval ratings have
dropped after his flagship Disbursement Acceleration Program was declared
illegal by the Supreme Court last month. He faces three impeachment complaints
in Congress.
That has made Aquino, whose presidency has two years to run,
wary of a new battle with the high court that could arise if the BBL
contravenes the Constitution.
"The President could have easily persuaded Congress to
approve the Bangsamoro law if he still enjoyed a high popular rating. But he is
facing a serious credibility problem because of his economic stimulus
package," said Julkipli Wadi, a professor at the University of the Philippines
The government's chief negotiator, Miriam Coronel Ferrer,
denied the government had reneged on key pledges but said the proposed law had
to be in line with the constitution.
"Let's not point fingers at each other," she said.
"There were difficulties in the drafting of the law but the president is
not afraid to gamble his political capital for this issue."
The revisions by Aquino's team seek to bring crucial
elements such as resource sharing and taxation in line with the Constitution,
making the proposed new autonomous region more dependent on the central
government for economic policy and law making.
A higher degree of autonomy for the region could require
Aquino to push for Charter change, which he is unwilling to do despite having
large enough majorities in Congress.
Aquino has promised the autonomous region would be in place
by January 2015. Following that, a referendum on whether to accept the new law
will be held in Muslim Mindanao.
"The president should agree to amend the constitution
and grant full fiscal autonomy, otherwise the rebels will reject this
arrangement," said an independent lawyer who is involved in discussions to
resolve the problem.
"The talks are getting harder. I am afraid the rebels
will go back to war if this process fails."
Investments on hold
There have been no clashes between the MILF and the army
since 2011, but tension remains high in a region that is rife with poverty,
guns and extremist Muslim splinter groups that have resisted joining the peace
settlement.
"Challenges on the ground are very real," Rommel
Banlaoi, director at the Center for Intelligence and National Security Studies,
told Reuters, saying some MILF commanders are getting impatient and unhappy
with the delay.
More than 120,000 people have been killed and two million
displaced by the conflict in western Mindanao ,
a Muslim majority area.
Renewed violence would wipe out the goodwill and increased
business confidence since the March peace deal, said Ishak Mastura, head of the
regional board of investments.
About P2.5 billion (£33.8 million) in investments were
registered in Muslim Mindanao in the first half of 2014, the highest in its
history, Mastura said. Investments rose to nearly 1.5 billion pesos in 2013
from 569 million pesos in 2012.
http://www.interaksyon.com/article/92743/mindanao-peace-in-jeopardy--palace-bares-more-delays-in-bbl-passage-as-milf-cries-foul
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