DILEMMA | Reasons why US will not help PH vs China in fight over Ayungin

From InterAksyon (May 25): DILEMMA | Reasons why US will not help PH vs China in fight over Ayungin

China is not currently facing an Ayungin dilemma. It's not equally worried about a rogue state rep.

Why, the baddest bad-ass rogue state today is the United States, the state that routinely kills and murders alleged combatants and non-combatants in Pakistan and other countries in the arc of crisis from Central Asia to the Middle East.

Russia is considered by some as another rogue state for what it has done in the Crimea. In this sense, China is in good company -- the movers and shakers of the world today.

US not signatory to UNCLOS

In my opinion, it is the US (and the Philippines), which face an Ayungin dilemma. The US is not a signatory to UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) and thus does not recognize such concepts and principles as archipelagic state and exclusive economic zone upon which the Philippine claim is based. So, how can you "support an ally" for a cause based on principles you yourself do not accept?

In that sense, the US does not consider waters off the 12-nautical mile zone as territorial waters of the Philippines but as international waters where navigation (including war ships) can pass undisturbed during times of peace.

This is consistent with its national interests since the South China Sea connects its forces in the Indian Ocean (and beyond, i.e., the Middle East and the Mediterranean) with forces in Okinawa and northeast Asia (South Korea and the Japanese homeland).

Of course, it will oppose Chinese attempts to have them as their own sovereign waters.
In the same vein, the Americans will not be very enthusiastic in having the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, etc. slice the SCS into smaller domestic waters that could impede navigation of US warships as well as interdict the flow of oil to Japan.

If our claims are not upheld by the ITLOS (we are not sure when the verdict comes out and we're not sure if the verdict will be in our favor), then they are international waters and the Mutual Defense Treaty, in my opinion, cannot be invoked to draw in US military response to China's actions.

US Senate needs to declare war before helping PH

I am reminded of the warnings raised by then Senator Claro M. Recto in the late 50s and 60s that there is no guarantee that the US will help us militarily even if the Philippine homeland attack because it is the US Senate which needs to declare war on the belligerent party.

It is true that the US president has gained a lot of war-making powers since the Vietnam war. The question remains: will the US president go to war with China over disputes over contested (emphasis on contested) waters and territory? Is it to the US national interest to do so?

US was If we consider the historical record, the US has never clearly supported our territorial claims outside of the Treaty of Paris parameters. It was silent on our Sabah claim for the obvious reason that it did not wish to invite quarrels with Britain and Malaysia during the height of the Cold War. I have outlined the reasons above why it is also silent on SCS/WPS claims.

Ayungin not covered by Mutual Defense Treaty

At this writing, our claims are not yet upheld by ITLOS (International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea). Technically, Ayungin Shoal, is not covered by the Mutual Defense Treaty. Until that happens, Ayungin is not undisputably Philippine territory and thus the US is not duty bound under the MDT to help us.

My more important point is, if ITLOS declares Ayungin to Philippine territory, is it in the US interest to first support the Philippine claim given that it is not a UNCLOS signatory?

Next, if China forces the issue and moves aggressively against Ayungin, what will the US do? What China has to do is to really clamp down and blockade the shipwreck and starve our marines to submission. Will the US respond with red fire? Will it "persuade" Chinese coast guard vessels to stand down? With what? With war ships or with similar coast guard assets? But would the US have coast guard vessels in the area?

In short, China has the option of appearing to act in a non-military manner (through the use of civilian Coast Guard vessels and ever fishing ships) to blockade Ayungin and achieve its strategic objectives in those parts.

The US apparently does not have that option. The Philippines does not seem to have the option because it does not have the numbers.

Did US help PH in Mischief Reef in 1995?

I end this note by asking some questions. How did the US behave when the Chinese occupied Mischief Reef in 1995 onwards? How did it behave when the Chinese established de facto control of Scarborough Shoal as late as 2012?

The answers to these questions are obvious. The questions are not rhetorical ones. Pushing our claims is a sovereign duty. However, to do so premised on a big brother's support is foolhardiness. This is even more true because big brother does not have a good record as an international citizen. From the Law of the Sea to the International Criminal Court law to the Climate Change conventions, the US is definitely a rogue state out of sync with the rest of the law-abiding world.

The American pot cannot accuse the Chinese frying pan of being black! And the Filipino acolyte cannot sing the refrain.

[Editor’s note: Amado “Bong” Mendoza is a faculty member of the Department of Political Science, University of the Philippines (Diliman) and is primarily interested in Philippine politics and political economy. He used to write for Business Day covering the finance beat and the online edition of Inquirer. This piece first appeared in his Facebook page, and he has allowed InterAksyon.com to re-post it.]

http://www.interaksyon.com/article/87556/dilemma--reasons-why-us-will-not-help-ph-vs-china-in-fight-over-ayungin