PH security situation still ‘precarious’ – BMI

From the Manila Times (Mar 19): PH security situation still ‘precarious’ – BMI

The Philippines’ security risk score remains lower than the regional average, a Fitch Group unit said, citing fresh encounters between the military and Islamic militants.

“The latest clash in March between the AFP (Armed Forces of the Philippines) and Islamic militants in the southern Maguindanao province accentuates our view that the security situation in the Philippines remains precarious,” BMI Research said in a report.

At least 44 pro-Islamic State (IS) militants were killed during the March 8 clash.

BMI believes the threat of terrorism is rising and that risks to the security situation are weighted to the downside.

“Terror threats are heightening as IS fighters fleeing the Middle East make their way to the Philippines,” it warned.

IS fighters fleeing Syria and Iraq are reportedly helping separatists in the Philippines regroup following heavy losses during the five-month Marawi City siege

“In addition, the Philippines’ archipelagic nature has rendered Manila’s centralized authority ineffective, particularly over Mindanao, affording jihadist groups the opening to establish safe havens in inadequately governed and remote territories,” BMI pointed out.

Quoting Ebrahim Murad, the head of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), BMI said that IS fighters from Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Middle East had entered the Philippines and were planning to launch attacks against two cities in Mindanao.

BMI said this echoed a statement made in February by Philippine military officials, who warned that ISIS Philippines had reconstructed a force of about 200 fighters in Mindanao and still aimed to establish a caliphate than can be used as a staging point to launch attacks throughout the region.

Concluding the peace process between the Philippine government and the MILF via the approval of the Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) is crucial, it said, as this would lead to the creation of an autonomous region in Mindanao.

However, BMI believes that the latest version of the BBL, which was submitted to Congress in 2017, will struggle to move forward amid the security concerns and possible challenges at the Supreme Court

BMI also noted that the House of Representatives was hesitant to cede more autonomy over fears that local governments would lose control of security in the region.

“This poses downside risk to the security situation. In the event that the bill does not pass, we could see disgruntled followers of the MILF and Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) join forces with more radical groups such as the BIFF (Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters), Abu Sayyaf, and Maute Group,” it said.

As a reflection of the difficult and volatile security situation, BMI said it continues to score the Philippines poorly at 63.1 out of 100 in our short-term political index, compared with a regional average of 68.2.

http://www.manilatimes.net/ph-security-situation-still-precarious-bmi/387137/