The U.S. Needs the Philippines for Its Strategic Location

From The New York Times (Oct 18): The U.S. Needs the Philippines for Its Strategic Location (By Malcolm Cook)

President Duterte clearly has a problem with the United States and his country’s alliance with its former colonial ruler. He has called for the end to planned joint patrols in the Philippine exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea and to the annual Balikatan (shoulder-to-shoulder) exercises. In both cases, he noted Chinese concerns as a reason for his declarations.

Missiles from China’s nuclear-armed submarines would transit through the Luzon Strait. The U.S. benefits from continued access to Philippine bases.

 If these presidential pronouncements are translated policy, they will be little more than an annoyance to Washington and its Pacific Command. The Philippine Navy has little capacity to conduct patrols beyond its coastal waters and the annual exercises build Philippine not American capabilities. Even if the Armed Forces of the Philippines start to buy Chinese and Russian arms as suggested by the president the impact will be mostly symbolic given the country’s meager defense budget. These actions will hurt the Philippines not the United States.
 

If President Duterte’s more recent musings about reviewing or rescinding the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement are followed through the situation would change. The actions of America's weakest and most dependent ally will pose a danger to vital U.S. and homeland security interests.

China’s recently activated nuclear-armed submarines are located at Hainan Island in the South China Sea. For these submarines’ missiles to pose a first or second strike threat to the continental United States, they must transit the South China Sea and enter the Western Pacific. Their most suitable route would be through the Luzon Strait between the Philippines and Taiwan. This year’s Malabar naval exercise with the United States, Japan and India took place around this strategic passage and focused on anti-submarine warfare.

The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, signed by Duterte’s predecessor in 2014, provides U.S. forces greater access to Philippine bases including some strategically located to better address this new nuclear threat. If access to these bases are reduced or stopped there is no clear alternative.

A quarter century ago, Philippine identity politics led to U.S. forces being asked to leave. Then, Singapore quickly offered the U.S. greater access to its military bases and became the most important security partner for the United States in Southeast Asia. The Philippines became the main target of Chinese actions in the disputed waters of the South China Sea.

This time, if Philippine identity politics leads to another rejection of the U.S. military, it is unlikely the Americans could look across the Strait to Taiwan to fill the void. Soon, the United States may clearly have a problem with President Duterte.

[Malcolm Cook is a senior fellow at Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore and a visiting professor at Ateneo de Manila University in the Philippines.]

http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2016/10/18/can-the-us-philippine-alliance-survive-duterte/the-us-needs-the-philippines-for-its-strategic-location