SWS SURVEY | Filipinos trust the US most, and China least

From InterAksyon (Oct 18): SWS SURVEY | Filipinos trust the US most, and China least



How trustworthy are these seven countries to Filipinos? SWS sought the answers in its Third Quarter Survey.

Their President might lately be bashing old friends like the US while cozying up to neighbor China that their government sued - and won against - in a global court. But for Filipinos, it seems America remains their most trusted country and China, the least trusted, according to a Social Weather Stations survey.

The "Third Quarter 2016 Social Weather Survey: Net Trust Rating of Countries" as reported by its partner BusinessWorld also showed historical data on how Filipinos have in the last two decades trusted - or not - seven countries, including the US and China.

The historical data for five of the seven countries went as far back as the Ramos presidency two decades ago.

America, where over an estimated 4 million Filipinos are based, scored the highest net trust rating (% much trust minus % little trust) of +66, a figure described by SWS as  "Very Good".

Falling under the "Good" rating segment are two countries enjoying very friendly relations with the Philippines and counted among its most reliable ODA partners: a rating of +47 for Australia and +34 for Japan.

Described as "Moderate" are the ratings of Norway,  +16 and the Netherlands, +14.

Taiwan's +3 rating is deemed "Neutral."

China, however, scored the lowest net trust rating of -33, which SWS deems "Bad".

The Third Quarter 2016 Social Weather Survey -- conducted Sept. 24-27 via face-to-face interviews with 1,200 adults nationwide and with a ±3 percentage-point sampling error margin -- found 55% of Filipinos having “little trust,” 19% undecided, and 22% having “much trust” in China, Businessworld reported.

That yielded, BW reported, "a 'bad' -33 net trust in the Philippines’ giant northern neighbor, down nine points and a grade from the “poor” -24 logged in June 2016."

SWS classifies net trust ratings of at least +70 as “excellent”; +50 to +69 as “very good”; +30 to +49, “good”; +10 to +29, “moderate”; +9 to -9, “neutral”; -10 to -29, “poor”; -30 to -49, “bad”; -50 to -69, “very bad”; as well as -70 and below as “execrable.”

United States

Though the United States scored a very good net trust rating of +66 (76% much trust, 11% little trust, correctly rounded) as of September 2016, it actually represents a 6-point decline, and one grade down, from the excellent +72 in June 2016. The US' net trust rating as far as Filipinos are concerned has been above +60 since June 2010, reaching as high as excellent +82 in December 2013.

Net trust in the United States has been positive since SWS first surveyed it in December 1994, ranging from moderate +18 in May 2005 to excellent +82 in December 2013.

President Duterte has in recent weeks been critical of the United States, citing historical injustices committed against Filipino Muslims at the turn of the 20th century; belittling the real benefits of US military assistance; seeking an end to joint military exercises, among others.

However, BusinessWorld noted that Duterte’s pivot has been questioned by analysts noting the Philippine economy's substantial economic ties to its long-time ally America, from which a sudden de-coupling could have adverse effects.

Among others, BusinessWorld pointed to data that:

• the US accounts for 15.89% of total Philippine export of goods at $5.786 billion in the eight months to August; while China accounted for 10.38% at $3.781 billion;

• net foreign direct investments (FDI) from the US accounted for 1.6% of net FDI from all countries at $76.73 million from January to July, down 86.67% from $580.48 million the past year, while China provided just $3.3 million, a reversal from $140,000;

• cash remittances from Filipinos in the US stood at nearly $5 billion also as of July -- a third of the $15.3-billion global total. Flows from China were at $95.826 million -- less than 1 percent of the total -- though more than three times $29.69 million the past year.

Australia

Similarly, Australia has been scoring positive net trust ratings since SWS first surveyed it in April 1995, ranging from neutral +3 in September 1995 to very good +55 in August 2012.

In September 2016, Australia scored a good net trust rating of +47 (62% much trust, 15% little trust), just 2 points below the good + 49 in June 2016.

Japan

SWS first surveyed public trust in Japan in December 1994, and found neutral net ratings from December 1994 to December 1996, ranging from -2 to +9. It rose to moderate +17 in June 1997, and has since then been at moderate to good levels, reaching as high as good +47 in August 2012 and December 2013.

In September 2016, Japan scored a good net trust rating of +34 (56% much trust, 21% little trust, correctly rounded). This is a 14-point increase, and one grade up, from the moderate +20 in April 2016.

Norway, The Netherlands, Taiwan

Two countries (Norway, The Netherlands) were rated for the first time in the SWS survey, and this accounts for their being represented by small blips in the chart whereas the others go back to the Ramos presidency. The September 2016 survey found net trust at moderate +16 (41% much trust, 25% little trust) for Norway, and moderate +14 (40% much trust, 26% little trust) for the Netherlands.

It found a neutral +3 (36% much trust, 34% little trust, correctly rounded) net trust rating for Taiwan. This is 10 points above the neutral -7 in September 2013.

China

Net trust in China has been positive in only 7 out of 40 surveys since SWS first surveyed it in August 1994, reaching as high as moderate +17 in June 2010 and as low as a "bad" -46 in September 2015.

While the Third-Quarter SWS no longer indicated the historical context in which the previous surveys were conducted, it appears the lowest trust ratings obtained by China coincided with those periods in its relations with the Philippines that were marked by acrimony over territorial disputes. It scored a -36 on at least three periods tied to the sea rows:

• In June 1995, just as Manila was raising hell over the building of ostensible "fishermen's shelters" at Mischief Reef that eventually grew into what was long suspected and feared: heavily fortified garrisons;

• In May 2012, a month after the standoff began at Scarborough Shoal between Chinese coast guard ships and a Philippine military escort ship;

• In June 2014, just weeks after Manila submitted its Memorial (the main paper summarizing its arguments) on March 30, 2014; and after the arbitral tribunal at The Hague held its second meeting on the Philippine case (May 14-15).

China's lowest net trust rating of -46 was obtained in September 2015, just weeks after the case hearings began at The Hague.

When sought for comment by BusinessWorld, Herman Joseph S. Kraft, University of the Philippines associate professor for Political Science, said in a mobile phone message that “the negative rating probably comes from sentiments regarding China’s attitude towards the arbitral decision.”

“The Chinese government’s refusal to accept the content of the award might be seen as defiance in the face of what Filipinos see as a legitimate decision.”

Though he had been profuse in publicly thanking the Chinese for committing to help build rehabilitation centers for Filipino addicts - a stand that ironically clashed with his repeated assertion that most of the shabu entering the Philippines came from China - Duterte had given a firm assurance that when it came to the UN arbitral court ruling on the maritime entitlements in the South China Sea, he would be firm with counterparts in Beijing when he meets them this week.

"I will not bargain anywhere, we will continue to insist that is ours," Duterte told a news conference in Davao. "The international tribunal decision will be taken up."
He vowed he will not "barter" away territory and economic rights.

China had rejected the ruling and claims nearly all of the strategically vital waters and has in recent years built artificial islands in the disputed areas that are capable of hosting military bases.

Survey background

The September 2016 Social Weather Survey was conducted from September 24-27, 2016 using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults (18 years old and above) nationwide, 300 each in Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao (sampling error margins of ±3% for national percentages, and ±6% each for Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao).

The area estimates were weighted by National Statistics Office medium-population projections for 2016 to obtain the national estimates.

The Social Weather Survey items on public trust in selected countries are non-commissioned. These items were included on SWS's own initiative and released as a public service. The specific countries included in the surveys are based on their relevance to foreign affairs.

The exact questions on public trust in selected countries are as follows: "PAG-USAPAN PO NATIN ANG TUNGKOL SA ILANG BANSA. SA MGA SUMUSUNOD, MAAARI PO BANG SABIHIN NINYO KUNG ANG PAGTITIWALA NINYO SA (BANSA) AY NAPAKALAKI, MEDYO MALAKI,

HINDI TIYAK KUNG MALAKI O MALIIT, MEDYO MALIIT, NAPAKALIIT, O WALA PA KAYONG NARINIG O NABASA KAHIT NA KAILAN TUNGKOL SA (BANSA)? PAKISABI ANG SAGOT NINYO SA PAMAMAGITAN NG PAGLAGAY NG MGA KARD SA NAAANGKOP NA LUGAR SA RATING BOARD NA ITO. [Let's now talk about some countries. For the following, please indicate if your trust/faith in (COUNTRY) is VERY MUCH, SOMEWHAT MUCH, UNDECIDED IF MUCH OR LITTLE, SOMEWHAT LITTLE, VERY LITTLE, or YOU HAVE NOT HEARD OR READ ANYTHING ABOUT THE (COUNTRY) ever? You may indicate your answers by placing each card on the appropriate box on this rating board.]"

SWS employs its own staff for questionnaire design, sampling, fieldwork, data-processing, and analysis, and does not outsource any of its survey operations.

http://interaksyon.com/article/133423/sws-survey--filipinos-trust-the-us-most-and-china-least