Jakarta Attacks Stoke Fears Islamic State Could Target Philippines

From the Wall Street Journal (Jan 15): Jakarta Attacks Stoke Fears Islamic State Could Target Philippines

Abu Sayyaf leaders have previously sworn allegiance to Islamic State  

The Islamic State-linked attacks on Indonesia’s capital have stoked fears that the Philippines—home to more than five million Muslims—could be next on the extremist group’s list of targets.

While the extent of Islamic State’s influence in the Philippines is unclear, delays to a landmark peace deal with the country’s main Islamic rebel group could embolden splinter organizations that reject the plan and allow Islamic State to make inroads into disaffected Muslim communities, security experts have warned. Officials said they believed the perpetrators of Thursday's attacks were involved in a local Islamist group and funded by an Indonesian militant with ties to Islamic State. Photo: AFP/Getty

“It’s definitely time to start taking the threat [of Islamic State] more seriously,” said Steven Rood, the Asia Foundation’s representative in the Philippines, pointing out that two foreign nationals—an Indonesian and a Malaysian—had been killed in recent clashes between the Philippine military and Islamic rebels. The presence of foreign fighters in the Philippines hints at transnational links between Southeast Asia’s militant groups, he said.

In 2014, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, the country’s dominant Islamic rebel group, signed a peace agreement with the government of the Philippines—a predominantly Roman Catholic country -- that would establish a new autonomous region on the southern island of Mindanao, which is about 20%-25% Muslim. But smaller groups have boycotted the process. The Islamic Front is based in Mindanao and has little influence in the nearby Sulu archipelago, a string of small islands where extremist groups including Abu Sayyaf have their jungle bases. Islamic State's links to the deadly attacks in the Indonesian capital of Jakarta show the expanding reach of the extremist group in Asia, raising fears of a return of Islamist-inspired violence in the region.

Moreover, the deal has become bogged down in the Philippine Congress, with some lawmakers wary of handing too much power to former Muslim rebels.

Abu Sayyaf leaders have previously sworn allegiance to Islamic State in videos published online, but the Philippine authorities have dismissed these as attempts to increase the group’s notoriety to secure higher ransoms for their frequent kidnappings. Most recently in September Abu Sayyaf snatched two Canadians, a Norwegian and a Filipino from a Mindanao resort, and then prominently displayed the black flag of Islamic State in a video demanding ransom money.

A new video showing Filipino militants from Abu Sayyaf and other lesser-known groups training in front of the Islamic State flag emerged earlier this month.
Philippine military officials have denied that Islamic State has any foothold in the country. They didn’t respond to questions on Friday.

Zachary Abuza, a Southeast Asian security expert at the U.S. National War College, said it is time the Philippines acknowledged the threat posed by Islamic State, while also being careful not to overplay it. “There is clearly some [Islamic State] presence in the south,” he said, warning that the relatively unsophisticated attacks staged in Jakarta are “very much within the capabilities of militants in the Southern Philippines.”

The challenge for the Philippine authorities is to “keep them contained” in their southern base areas and prevent attacks on Manila or other Philippine cities, Mr. Abuza said.

Philippine lawmakers should expedite the stalled peace plan to deny extremists an opportunity to win over the country’s disillusioned young Muslims, Mr. Rood argued.

“The [Islamic Front] have clearly said they’re committed to the path to peace no matter what; and if they’re not achieving anything, it’s harder to keep arguing that you can fight for Islam through peaceful means,” he said.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/jakarta-attacks-stoke-fears-islamic-state-could-target-philippines-1452838043