Opinion: Assessing peace and order in Muslim Mindanao: Progress, challenges, and the road ahead

Opinion piece posted to the Manila Bulletin (Jul 2, 2023): Assessing peace and order in Muslim Mindanao: Progress, challenges, and the road ahead (By Lt. Gen. AURELIO B. BALADAD (Ret))

[BARRACKS & STRATEGY Column]

The current peace and order situation in Muslim Mindanao shows both progress and challenges. Although there have been significant advancements in recent years, the region still experiences occasional outbreaks of violence and underlying socio-political issues that hinder the establishment of lasting peace. This assessment highlights the progress made, acknowledges the remaining challenges, and emphasizes the need for sustained efforts to achieve a secure and prosperous Muslim Mindanao.

Progress in Muslim Mindanao deserves recognition. The signing of the Bangsamoro Organic Law (BOL) in 2018 was a major milestone. It provided a legal framework for the creation of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM). This devolved governance structure aims to address historical grievances, promote political inclusivity, and empower the region's people. The BARMM has enabled localized decision-making, increased transparency, and improve good governance, fostering a sense of ownership and empowerment among the residents.

The initial decommissioning of former combatants from the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) last year was another positive development. This process saw thousands of MILF fighters voluntarily disarm and demobilize. It signified a commitment to a peaceful resolution and offered former combatants an opportunity to reintegrate into society and contribute positively to the region's development.

The implementation of the BOL, decommissioning efforts, and other socioeconomic development and political initiatives have significantly reduced violent incidents involving the MILF. In 2020, there were no violent incidents involving the MILF. In 2021, only four incidents were recorded, and in 2022, there were no recorded incidents. This year, two incidents involving the MILF have occurred, which require monitoring.

Sustaining progress in peace and order depends on the continued and robust implementation of the peace process with the MILF with the active participation of the AFP, PNP, LGUs, NGAs, local and international NGOs, and residents of the area.

Despite the progress made, challenges remain in ensuring lasting peace and order. Local terrorist groups (LTGs) like the Abu Sayyaf Group and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters continue to pose security threats.

The strength of LTGs has been diminishing. Their total strength decreased from 539 in 2020 and further declined to 389 by the end of 2022. The firepower of LTGs also decreased from 486 in 2020 to 371 by 2022. Additionally, the number of barangays influenced by LTG activities decreased significantly from 165 in 2020 to only 32 by 2022.

These LTGs engage in violent incidents such as kidnappings, bombings, and extortion, undermining peace and stability in the region. However, the number of such incidents has significantly subsided, with 106 incidents in 2020, and only 40 incidents in 2022. In the first half of this year, only 11 violent incidents involving LTGs were recorded, indicating an improved security scenario. This reduction in terrorist attacks signifies a successful disruption of their operations contributing to a safer and more stable environment in Muslim Mindanao.

It is crucial to stay vigilant in anticipation of a possible resurgence of terrorist activities, as the remaining elements retain the ability to carry out attacks and engage in violence. These groups might prioritize enhancing their capabilities, refining their tactics, forging alliances with other armed factions, and seeking financial support from politicians or unscrupulous individuals.

Eradicating these terrorist groups requires sustained efforts from the AFP and the PNP forces, intelligence gathering, and international cooperation to address cross-border issues. To sustain the achieved gains, maintain continued law enforcement operations, and enhance gun control measures. Loose firearms worsen the security situation, hindering PNP law enforcement and enabling criminal activities. Stricter regulations, improved enforcement, and public awareness campaigns for the voluntary surrender of firearms are necessary.

The diminished strength of LTGs also brings positive outcomes for the economy and social cohesion. Heightened stability instills investor confidence, driving economic growth and development. As a result, new job opportunities arise, infrastructure projects thrive, and the overall quality of life improves. With the foundation of improved peace and order, progress and development can flourish not only in Muslim Mindanao but also across the entire country, as increased collaborations with other regions unfold.
Socioeconomic development in Muslim Mindanao remains a pressing issue. Persistent poverty, lack of job opportunities, and inadequate access to basic services contribute to grievances and create an environment prone to unrest. Targeted investments in education, healthcare, infrastructure, and livelihood programs are essential in reducing vulnerabilities and promoting social stability.

Assessing the peace and order situation in Muslim Mindanao reveals both progress and persistent challenges. To achieve lasting peace and security, it is necessary to address the root causes of conflict, vigorously implement the peace process, sustain focused military and law enforcement operations against LTGs, promote socio-economic development, and enhance gun control measures. With concerted efforts, a peaceful and prosperous Muslim Mindanao can be realized, ensuring safety, harmony, and dignity for all residents.

[Lt. Gen. Aurelio B. Baladad (Ret) served as the 8th commander of the Eastern Mindanao Command, the 32nd commander of the 3rd Infantry (Spearhead) Division, and the former deputy chief of staff for Operations, J3 of the AFP. He is a graduate of Master in Development Management (with Dist) of AIM. He is now the VP for cooperative planning and marketing of PAFCPIC, a cooperative serving the active and retired AFP personnel.]

https://mb.com.ph/2023/7/2/assessing-peace-and-order-in-muslim-mindanao-progress-challenges-and-the-road-ahead