China squeezing out Manila in sea dispute – expert

From the Manila Times (Feb 4): China squeezing out Manila in sea dispute – expert

First of two parts

 Beijing is only holding off its plans to build over the disputed Scarborough Shoal in order to squeeze out everything from the Duterte administration and move to the “next step,” according to a maritime expert.

Gregory Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative and Southeast Asia program fellow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, made the statement on Friday as he pointed out that China has been building structures over disputed waters in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea).

Poling backed a statement made by Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana last year that he was expecting China to eventually build “something” over Scarborough Shoal.

“It’s a matter of when, not if, and it’s a matter of what they built. So maybe, they don’t build another giant island [which]was easy to start in late 2013 when nobody was watching,” he said in an interview at Camp Aguinaldo in Quezon City.

“I promise that everybody won’t be publishing photos of Chinese [dredgers]tomorrow if [it]started today, so maybe, it’s a small facility,” Poling added.

His statements came days after the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) patrolled Scarborough Shoal where it monitored more Chinese vessels including fishing and Coast Guard ships surrounding the territory.

For him, there was also a “political decision” that China feels that it is winning the dispute with other claimants to the waters 124 nautical miles off Masinloc, Zambales.


“If China feels right now that it is winning, why provoke crisis with the Duterte administration? You know, day by day the Chinese are allowed to strengthen their military control over the South China Sea and the Philippines does nothing in response,” Poling explained.

‘Next phase’

He said Manila might be “forced” to take action once Beijing spoiled its authority over the territorial waters.

“If they overplay their hand at Scarborough Shoal, Malacañang might be forced to respond and I think they will hold off to build in Scarborough Shoal until they [China] feel like they have extracted as much as they can from the Duterte government,” Poling added.

“Then, they will move on to the next phase,” he said.

The maritime expert visited the Philippines as part of the US State Department-sponsored multi-country speaker program that includes two days in the country.

Another point Poling raised is that the claimant nations must take the first necessary steps to come up with a “clear-eyed” policy recognizing the worthiness of pursuing the Code of Conduct (CoC) drafted during last year’s Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) Summit, which was hosted by the Philippines.

In August 2017, China and Southeast Asian foreign ministers adopted a negotiating framework for a Code of Conduct in the disputed South China Sea that was hailed by the Asean foreign affairs leaders.

President Rodrigo Duterte mentioned during the Asean Leaders’ Summit last year that China “graciously agreed” to bind itself to the drafted agreement by the foreign ministers.

But for Poling, it was obvious that China was not willing to bind itself to the code, citing the establishment of several man-made islands in the disputed waters.

“The evidence of the last 18 months or so does not support the idea that China is willing to negotiate the binding of the Code of Conduct that brought all parties,” he said.

“This is not to say that the [CoC] talks are a waste of time, that we should not be reaching out to China automatically, simply, we should be doing this with open eyes and recognize that the Chinese built thousands of square meters of military facilities over the course of 2017,” Poling added.

‘Coercive tactic’

While Asean countries, particularly the claimants to the South China Sea territories were discussing the code, China had already built bunkers, missile shelters and radar facilities that can be described as a “coercive tactic,” according to him.

“If you haven’t put the footage in there yet, it’s like waving around an empty gun and it’s inherently threatening at the same time,” he said.

Structures on the man-made islands in South China Sea sum up China’s approach as “military in nature,” Poling added.

He said over the “rainy days,” China will be basing its fighter jets on a runway built over the waters.

“You’re going to see more signals of intelligence and things like that. You’re gonna keep on seeing the increase in number of Chinese coast guards and maritime naval ships making calls to these,” according to Poling.

“Little by little, the Chinese plan seems to establish [a]de facto control, maybe without provoking an immediate sharp clash but by sheer force of number that eventually is going to be there such as coast guards and navy ships,” he added.

Poling said every claimant nations should be “realistic” with their expectations from the Asean Summit in Manila that China would bind itself to the Code of Conduct drafted earlier last year.

“Asean is not a mutual security alliance. It’s not equipped to handle something like this [because]Asean is about confidence-building and socializing China into habits of cooperation,” he explained.

“There is a whole lot of options between surrender and war that are not being tried and the idea that in theory, a future war would be winnable but nobody wants to go to war [over]the South China Sea. But does that [not]mean that we cannot talk about other stuff in the middle?” Poling added.

(To be continued)

http://www.manilatimes.net/china-squeezing-manila-sea-dispute-expert/378031/