U.S. Seeks Strategy to Sustain Philippine Ties Amid Rodrigo Duterte’s Outbursts

From the Wall Street Journal (Sep 14): U.S. Seeks Strategy to Sustain Philippine Ties Amid Rodrigo Duterte’s Outbursts

Obama administration working on response that wouldn’t jeopardize military ties to an Asian ally

U.S. officials said that the Obama administration has been stunned by the actions of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and that it was still working out how to respond.

Washington doesn’t want to jeopardize its military ties to one of its six allies in Asia, they said, and is waiting to see if Mr. Duterte’s words translate into substantive actions.

However, a senior U.S. official involved in Asia policy said the administration believed Mr. Duterte was alienating himself from the country’s political elites and the military. Both increasingly want strong relations with the U.S. to counter China.

–– ADVERTISEMENT ––

This official said the administration doesn’t believe Mr. Duterte’s policies would be supported in Manila in the longer term. “He’s isolating himself from the country’s powerful institutions and families,” the official said.

Mr. Duterte’s name-calling and grousing about the U.S. and traditional institutions such as the United Nations since taking office earlier this year haven’t yet led to concrete action, U.S. officials and experts said. Mr. Duterte’s foreign secretary, Perfecto Yasay, has tried to mitigate some of his comments and is expected to do so again in meetings this week in Washington on a diplomatic visit planned months ago.

“I think that Yasay will try to reassure everyone that the alliance is solid,” said Amy Searight, senior adviser and director of the Southeast Asia Program at CSIS in Washington. The State Department, she said, “will express the same sentiment.”

More confidence-building measures are likely later in the month, when U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter will host defense ministers from the Philippines and other countries of the Asia alliance in Hawaii, she said.

But over the longer term, Mr. Duterte’s anti-American sentiments could turn into a problem. “Initially it seemed that these comments were just a bit of a kerfuffle and just an interesting personality,” said Ms. Searight. “But then there was this drip, drip, drip of comments and it has become concerning.”

The removal of troops from the southern island of Mindanao—as demanded by Mr. Duterte on Monday—would likely have little impact on U.S. planning in Asia if it happened, said Scott Harold, associate director for the Center for Asia Pacific Policy at Rand Corp. But any move to curtail the U.S. presence in the Philippines could do some “serious, permanent damage” to the alliance.

Mr. Duterte’s behavior will be closely watched by other Asian allies, who may try to pressure him to mitigate his actions.

“I think it’s possible that some of them will be giving a message to the Philippines, telling them that they are putting the whole alliance at risk,” Mr. Harold said. “And they’ll be asking Duterte—if you ask the Americans to leave do you really want to face China alone?”

Military-to-military relations have so far remained unchanged. According to U.S. defense officials, the American military won’t cease operations in the Philippines or pull out of the country unless it receives a formal request from the government, which hasn’t arrived.

If Mr. Duterte continues to insist on a reduced U.S. presence in the Philippines, Washington is likely to try to avoid a public blowup. Since a military junta rose to power in Thailand, another U.S. ally in the region, the U.S. has pulled back on some of its cooperation but hasn’t publicly broken with the country.

“We continue to focus on our broad relationship with the Philippines, and will work together in the many areas of mutual interest to improve the livelihoods of the Philippine people and uphold our shared democratic values,” Cmdr. Gary Ross, a Pentagon spokesman, said this week.

Cmdr. Ross said U.S. Special Forces have been providing support in the southern Philippines for years at the request of different administrations in Manila. The U.S. forces have helped the government fight Abu Sayyaf, an Islamist militant group linked to Islamic State.

Across Washington, officials have largely been puzzled by Mr. Duterte’s rhetoric and see his outbursts as erratic. They also note the U.S. has had to deal with other similarly bombastic world leaders in the past.

Following the threat by Mr. Duterte earlier this week to order the removal of U.S. troops from Mindanao, White House press secretary Josh Earnest said voters face risks in selecting unpredictable candidates, in an apparent swipe at both Mr. Duterte and Republican U.S. candidate Donald Trump.

“The Filipino people made a decision,” Mr. Earnest said Monday. “And elections do say a lot about what kind of person is going to represent your country on the international stage…And I think that certainly is something that the Filipino people are well aware of right now.”

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-seeks-strategy-to-sustain-philippine-ties-amid-rodrigo-dutertes-outbursts-1473902096