Don't expect instant gratification if PHL wins arbitration case — Carpio

From GMA News (Jun 10): Don't expect instant gratification if PHL wins arbitration case — Carpio

China will not easily give in to international pressure if the Philippines wins in the closely watched arbitration case regarding the maritime dispute in the South China Sea, Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio said on Thursday.

"I would say it's an inter-generational struggle and we should not expect instant gratification here once the ruling comes out. This is a long struggle," Carpio told reporters on the sidelines of the Air Force Symposium at a hotel in Pasay City where he gave a keynote speech on the South China Sea dispute.

"The Chinese have been taught from kindergarten to college that they own the South China Sea so it's difficult for their government to just say that, "We don't own the South China Sea."

"They have to convince their people first and that will take time. And we know that, that's why we went to court that's authorized to make this ruling," he added.

The Netherlands-based Permanent Court of Arbitration is expected to release a decision anytime this year, which Carpio believes would be favorable to the Philippines.

But the UN tribunal has no power to enforce its ruling, leaving the Philippines with no choice but to drum up international support especially from major powers like the United States, European Union and Japan, which also has overlapping claims with China in the East China Sea.

The Philippines may also use the decision as leverage against China should the two countries agree to hold bilateral talks to resolve the issue, according to Carpio.

"If China keeps on insisting that it owns the South China Sea, even if there's a ruling already, there are countries around the South China Sea that will not follow China but will follow the ruling," he said.

Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan also have claims to the waters, where undersea natural gas, oil and mineral deposits have been discovered in several areas and trillions of dollars worth of global trade pass through each year.

"China said that they will ignore the ruling. We know that but the world will be behind us because the world has a stake. All the other naval powers have a stake in this dispute. I think eventually China will comply. It will take time, maybe not in our generation," he said during the forum.

While waiting for the court's decision, Carpio said it is important for the Philippines to continuously beef up its external defense capabilities by increasing spending on military hardware, technology and strengthening alliances with other nations.

"We need to have a credible self-defense. All nations that forgot to maintain a credible self-defense were erased from the map," he said.

Carpio cited the case of Ukraine, which lost Crimea to neighboring Russia two years ago.

"So you must maintain a credible self defense no matter what especially if you have a big neighbor and if you want to be an independent and sovereign state," he said.

Last March, President Benigno Aquino III said his government has already spent P58.43 billion for the Armed Forces of the Philippines Modernization and Capability Upgrade Program, surpassing the P31.75 billion combined defense spending of the past three administrations.

As a result, the Philippine Air Force already has two new FA-50 jet fighters, three C-130 aircraft, three C-295 medium-lift aircraft, 18 SF-260TP aircraft, eight Bell-412 combat utility helicopters and eight AW-109E attack helicopters.

Japan's government will also be leasing five of its retired training aircraft to the Philippine Navy for patrolling missions in contested territories in the South China Sea.

http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/569429/news/world/don-t-expect-instant-gratification-if-phl-wins-arbitration-case-carpio