THE Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) is preparing to sign an agreement with the government that is meant to end decades of conflict in the south of the predominantly Christian Philippines. The southern region of Mindanao is the home to almost all of the country’s Muslim minority, where the MILF is the most important in a range of armed groups that have been fighting for Muslim independence. After 18 years of negotiations often interrupted by heavy fighting, the government and the MILF concluded the last and most crucial part of a four-part peace agreement on January 25th.
The first three parts gave autonomy—not independence—to the mainly Muslim parts of Mindanao, in return for peace. The fourth sets out how the government and the MILF will jointly restore order in the autonomous entity, called Bangsamoro. It also sets out how the 12,000 or so MILF fighters will lay down their weapons, once all the other armed groups have been disarmed. This is the nub of the peace agreement.
That the negotiators have got this far demonstrates the determination of both sides, weary as they are after nearly 46 years of a conflict that has killed tens of thousands of people. A few obstacles remain. A constitution for Bangsamoro must be drafted and then enacted by a congress which is predominantly Christian. Anyone whose nose is put out of joint by the peace agreement may challenge it in the (predominantly Christian) courts. But the main Philippine parties are spurred on by the hope that peace will allow Mindanao to unlock its mineral wealth it sits on and the agricultural potential of its fecund soil. And America is ready to help with money to build the groundwork for prosperity. It hopes growth will prevent Mindanao it from remaining a sanctuary for Islamist terrorists.
The biggest obstacle will be the erstwhile rebels’ resistance to disarmament. Some of the reasons are cultural. In parts of Mindanao the concept of manhood is tied up with gun ownership. Feuds between Muslim clans are often extended by gunfire. Some resistance to disarmament is political. Communist guerrillas still infest parts of Mindanao, and their leaders are reluctant to talk peace. A faction of the MILF that now calls itself the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) opposes the peace agreement and plans to keep fighting in the name of Muslim independence. Other factions of the MILF that are dissatisfied with the peace agreement may follow the BIFF’s lead. The MILF itself began as a faction that splintered off the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF). The MNLF settled for autonomy for some largely Muslim areas in a peace agreement which it signed with the government in 1996. Now the MNLF is upset that the autonomous entity created by the 1996 agreement is to be supplanted by Bangsamoro. In September one of the MNLF’s factions protested with a show of force in the southern city of Zamboanga, provoking three weeks of street-fighting that killed 240 people.
The Abu Sayyaf is another armed group of Muslims, which has links to Islamist terrorists. It has been able to keep operating in Mindanao despite the presence of American troops who are there to help the Philippine security forces wipe it out. And then some of the resistance to disarmament will come from common criminals. Mindanao is awash with armed gangs of kidnappers and extortionists, some trained in bomb-making.
For defence against all these threats, local politicians often arm civilian Christians and Muslims, forming private armies that later become part of the problem. It is little wonder then that the MILF has agreed to lay down its weapons only once everybody else has. Peace between the MILF and the government is one thing; peace in Mindanao is another.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/01/peace-southern-philippines
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