By Rene Acosta, Bernadette Nicolas & Alladin S. Diega
FOUR years ago Negros Oriental was deemed by the weaponized branch of the state as a potential development area because of the absence of violence. Two weeks ago, the killings started.
The killings led Philippine National Police (PNP) Chief Oscar D. Albayalde to order the “immediate relief” of Negros Oriental provincial director Col. Raul M. Tacaca.
Albayalde has also ordered the creation of a task force to probe the incidents.
The PNP chief, likewise, ordered the Directorate for Investigation and Detective Management to lead the investigation into the killings.
In a news conference on July 29, Albayalde said they are “thoroughly” looking into the spate of killings in Negros Oriental.
“Tinitingnan natin ito ng maayos. This is the very reason why we deployed 300 more personnel from the SAF [Special Action Force] to augment our local police there, and also deployed from the AFP [Armed Forces of the Philippines], particularly from the Philippine Army.”
Albayalde said he was informed by the regional PNP officials that the police, together with the AFP, are undertaking “continuous hot pursuit operations.”
Militant groups have accused security forces of being behind the killings.
Albayalde said their accusers have “propaganda schemes.”
He added that the victims were sacrificed by the communists.
“That is part of their propaganda; actually, that they sacrifice their own and blame the government forces for it.”
The killings, to note, ensued after four policemen were discovered slain, and, police said, were tortured before they were executed.
Resolving conflicts
THESE accusations and counteraccusations mark the 50 years of communist insurgency and counterinsurgency since the New People’s Army (NPA) was formed in March 1969.
Several presidents even before Ferdinand E. Marcos have offered the olive branch as well as the cold steel of bullets. It was a mutual relationship with the communist guerillas and Muslim separatists Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF).
In the middle of 2016, a spark of hope over the resolution of the half-a-century Maoist rebellion presented itself under the new administration when a new round of talks between the government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) and the Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP), National Democratic Front (NDF) and the NPA were held overseas.
From right front: Ghazali Jaafar, vice chairman for Political Affairs and Chairman of the Bangsamoro Transition Commission; Murad Ebrahim, Chairman of Moro Islamic Liberation Front; President Rodrigo Duterte; House Speaker Gloria Macapagal Arroyo; and Carlito Galvez, Chairman of the Government Peace Process, and other Muslim rebel leaders, flash the peace sign following oath-taking ceremony for the creation of the Bangsamoro Transition Authority at the Presidential Palace in Manila, February 22, 2019. The Muslim rebels will serve as administrators of a new Muslim autonomous region in a delicate milestone to settle one of Asia’s longest-raging rebellions. Several commanders, including Commander Bravo, long wanted for deadly attacks, were given safety passes to be able to travel to Manila and join the ceremony.
Optimism was high as four formal talks were held from August 2016 to April 2017. During that time, a proposed bill for the creation of the new Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) was being deliberated on in Congress. The Barmm was seen as a result of peace negotiations between the GRP and the 42-year-old MILF.
For the first time, leaders of the CPP, NPA and NDF stood on the ground of the seat of power, Malacañang Palace. That meeting with President Rodrigo Duterte later resulted in the actual appointment of several known personalities of the militant Left to his Cabinet.
Optimism was high as four formal talks were held from August 2016 to April 2017. During that time, a proposed bill for the creation of the new Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) was being deliberated on in Congress. The Barmm was seen as a result of peace negotiations between the GRP and the 42-year-old MILF.
For the first time, leaders of the CPP, NPA and NDF stood on the ground of the seat of power, Malacañang Palace. That meeting with President Rodrigo Duterte later resulted in the actual appointment of several known personalities of the militant Left to his Cabinet.
Emerging violence
WHILE members of the peace panel were still in Europe, presumably preparing for the fifth round of talks, the Maute-Daesh group attacked Marawi City, prompting Duterte to declare martial law in Mindanao.
From May to October 2017, combat operations between the government and the Maute-Daesh would grind the Islamic City of Marawi into rubble. Despite this, the MILF held ground and Republic Act 11054 or the Organic Law for the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region creating the BARMM, was enacted.
However, Duterte’s order placing Mindanao under military rule was denounced by the CPP-NPA-NDF, who also called for aggressive action against the GRP and its security forces.
To note, Duterte only copied Gloria Arroyo’s move when she placed Maguindanao under martial law in 2009.
Talks with the CPP-NPA-NDF eventually bogged down. It didn’t help that while backchannels were being desperately pursued, a word war between Duterte and Jose Maria Sison ensued and fought in equal desperate terms.
Data from the AFP showed a total of 681 armed encounters with the NPA from June 1, 2017, to June 25, 2018. Since 2017, AFP records show a downward trend in “enemy atrocities.” For 2017, the military recorded a total of 455 communist “terrorist group” incidents while 112 incidents were recorded in the first semester of 2018.
Not cheap
THE war between the state, the communist guerrillas and Muslim separatists has already reached a staggering amount.
The war in Mindanao, for instance cost the government of Benigno Aquino III some P587.1 billion, according to Project Ploughshare’s 2015 data. Macapagal-Arroyo’s nine years in power saw war spending hitting P548 billion. For its 2016 annual data, Project Ploughshare removed the Philippines from its monitoring because at that time, the GRP was engaged in talks with both the CPP-NPA-NDF and the MILF.
“The conflict between the CPP and the Philippines [government] was removed as each of the preceding two years produced fewer than 25 deaths,” the peace research institute of The Canadian Council of Churches said. “However, the conflict between Muslim separatist groups in the Mindanao islands region of the Philippines persisted, with more than 500 deaths in 2016.”
Expenses, expenses
AFTER the aborted peace talks with the CPP-NPA-NDF, the AFP was allocated with P195.4 billion for its 2018 operations. According to its Military Public Affairs Officer Chief Col. Noel Detoyato, almost half of the amount was allotted for the military’s internal security operations (ISO). The ISO included counterinsurgency and anti-terrorism efforts, including ammunition expenditure, casualties, equipment damage, and everything in their operations.
For this year, the budget of the Department of National Defense (DND), where the AFP is considered as one of its line agencies, is placed at P183.89 billion. A Department of Budget and Management statement said that for 2019, the Philippine Army, Philippine Air Force, and the Philippine Navy were allocated P89 billion, P24.6 billion, and P27.8 billion, respectively, or a total of P141.4 billion.
In contrast to the military’s P195.4-billion budget for 2018, the Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process (Opapp) was allotted with just P7.667 billion, which includes P5.766 billion in capital outlays, P1.751 billion for maintenance and other operating expenses, and P158.61 million for personnel services.
Below rank
ACCORDING to the 2018 Global Peace Index, the Philippines is ranked second to the lowest in terms of “Peacefulness” in 19 countries in the Asia Pacific Region, with New Zealand at the top and North Korea at the bottom. The report explained that the spike in violence in the Philippines was influenced by war in Marawi City and the anti-drug campaign of the administration.
Globally, the Philippines was ranked 137, with the most violent country of Syria at the lowest rank of 163 followed by Afghanistan at 162. At the far end of the spectrum, Iceland tops the list of peacefulness, followed by New Zealand at second slot.
In other words, out of the 163 countries listed for 2018, there are 136 countries more peaceful than the Philippines and only 26 countries are worse off.
The same report also explained that the spike of violence in the Philippines during the reporting year is only represented by a change of a mere 1 percent, which means that years prior, the country is already low in terms of peacefulness.
Assessing the costs
THE Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) published in 2016 a groundbreaking work in quantifying the economic cost of peace and war-making, in a research titled “Economic Value of Peace.”
The IEP estimates the total economic impact of violence on the world economy was at $13.6 trillion in 2015. Expressed in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, the amount is equivalent to 13.3 percent of the world’s gross domestic product (GDP).
The Philippines is ranked 69th. In terms of PPP, the Philippines has an equivalent of $60,979 or $615 per person and 8.4 percent of GDP.
Countries approaching the Philippines are Lebanon, Macedonia, Jordan, Myanmar, India and Egypt. Notable countries with much higher economic impact of violence and conflict are Iran, the US, Cuba and Israel. At the far bottom, meaning those countries with much lower economic impact of violence and conflict, are Cambodia, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Laos and Canada, with the lowest being Indonesia.
Indonesia is a curiosity, with the lowest economic impact of violence as a percentage of GDP at 1.98 percent. The research says this is largely due to Indonesia’s low levels of military and internal security expenditure, as percentage of GDP at 0.7 and 0.5 percent, respectively. The likely reason is that after resolving internal conflicts, the huge budget for internal security went somewhere.
The report also says that spending on peace-building and peacekeeping is small compared to the economic losses caused by conflict, representing respectively 0.9 per cent and 1.1 per cent of the cost of conflict in 2015.
Deep divide
ACCORDING to Jennifer S. Oreta of the Ateneo de Manila University’s Department of Political Science, the present violent conflict in the country is “brought about by deep structural, socio-political and economic divide, fostered by discriminatory practices of our colonial government,” with many of its effects continuing to this day.
Speaking at a conference titled “Pathways to Peace and Development in the Philippines” on July 11, Oreta quoted the Philippine military as saying that out of the total 81 provinces of the country, 76 are conflict-affected. The assistant professor said, however, that most of the time, majority of these provinces have only one barangay or a single village being affected in a given time.
Out of the 76 affected areas, the military considers 71 provinces as Conflict-Manageable and Ready for Further Development (CMRFD). Negros Oriental was declared a CMRFD area in 2015.
However, Oreta noted government economists have “no idea as to what exactly a CMRFD means,” implying that the “matrix used by the government, particularly the security and development sectors, is not yet in sync.”
For instance, the AFP has an allocation for capital outlay in its budget for counterinsurgency, some of which is being distributed as goats and other livestock to rebels who surrendered. This is a project most similar to the regular program of the Department of Agriculture’s livestock distribution to farmers.
Oreta cited South Cotabato where all the armed groups simultaneously operate, which makes the process of forging peace more difficult and the contour of the conflict dynamics makes it difficult to come up with a one-formula-fits-all peace program.
Expectations raised
ORETA said that the Barmm “has raised the people’s expectations to resolve the decades of deprivation and resentment in the region.”
“[However], it’s a double-edged sword—its failure can also fuel the recruitment of extremist groups,” which means that managing expectations is also important, she added.
Some critics, however, caution that the concessions the rebel organizations secured from the government can motivate other groups to start their own rebellion. Oreta noted that, in one of her interviews in a separate study, she spoke with several Citizens Armed Force Geographical Unit (Cafgu) who expressed dismay. They used to fight the MNLF, they recalled, “yet now they [the rebels] are benefitting from the government and livelihood from the government.”
“What about us?” she quoted the Cafgu member as saying.
The Cafgu’s concern is poignant for it is an expression of discontent that could go a long way. This points to the fact that violent conflict is more than the exchange of death tolls, or proving whose side is winning.
This is particularly true in Mindanao, where violent conflict persists, despite rebellion-related violence taking a backseat.
Types of conflict
ACCORDING to nonprofit group International Alert-Philippines’ Conflict Alert 2018, violent conflict in Mindanao is no longer about rebellion but economics, such as ownership of land, and what it calls “shadow economy.” This can include trading legitimate household goods with Malaysia and Indonesia without government permits, and the outright criminal activities such as gun-running and drug trafficking.
Alert noted a shooting incident in 2018 involving an MILF ground commander. While it was reported by some media outlets as rebellion or insurgency-related, Alert discovered it was because of rido.
The Admu defines rido as “a type of conflict characterized by sporadic outbursts of retaliatory violence between families and kinship groups as well as between communities.” Alert’s further investigation yielded conflict arising from ownership of land.
The report also noted identity issues, which pertains to inter- and intrareligious affiliations, rising dramatically to levels unseen since the start of the Conflict Alert database in 2011, a counterpoint to the usually accepted precursor violence that attended the rise of extremism in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) with Muslim-Christian, Shia-Sunni, Muslim-Jew, and Muslim versus Muslim conflicts.
A series of conflict
ACCORDING to Alert, the precursor violence to extremism in the Philippines “has more to do with horizontal violence between political clans, land and other resource-based violence, and strings of clan feuds in previous years.”
“The spike in inter- and intra-religious violence is not the cause, but rather the outcome of the war in Marawi and the contingent extremist violence in many parts of Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao, Basilan, Sulu and Tawi-Tawi.”
With years of working in Mindanao trying to understand the myriad aspect of conflict, Alert Country Manager Nikki dela Rosa developed what she calls the theory of string violence.
Dela Rosa explained that conflict strings refer to “episodes of violence arising from a discrete incident with singular or multiple causes.
“A single incident is then reproduced through violent confrontations that come in sets, oftentimes the result of clan feuding or revenge killings. Yet they can also emerge when the singular source of violence at the outset triggers other issues or causes of conflict.”
De la Rosa said, as an example, the “politically motivated conflict can induce an episode of violence that fuses with shadow economy triggers or ethnic and clan identity issues as it spirals out of control.”
She added that violent incidents cannot be examined as discrete events isolated from other causes and related events that enable conflict to change shape and endure even after a successful political settlement.
Lasting peace
ACCORDING to Cabinet Secretary Karlo Alexei B. Nograles, “things are on track and proceeding as planned” in setting up various institutional mechanisms for the BARMM, adding that the Duterte administration is fully committed to bringing lasting peace and development to Mindanao.
Nograles, co-chair of the Inter-Cabinet Cluster Mechanism on Normalization (ICCMN), cited the fast-tracking of efforts to establish BARMM offices for youth, women, settler communities, disaster risk reduction management, planning and development and the attorney general. The ICCMN monitors and oversees the progress of implementing the transition to a fully autonomous Bangsamoro region.
Nograles said the Development Academy of the Philippines (DAP) and the Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA) signed a memorandum of agreement recently and partnered to form the core agencies of BARMM.
“We’re confident that with DAP’s guidance and expertise, these governance initiatives will turn out robust and responsive,” Nograles said.
Last June, Nograles announced the decommissioning of 12,000 former MILF combatants as a key component of the normalization and transition process.
MILF soldiers would slowly give up their weapons and ease into civilian life, with programs waiting to transform them into productive members of their local communities.
According to Nograles, these former troops and their families are expected to receive housing, livelihood assistance, skills development training, scholarships, employment opportunities, Philhealth coverage, conditional cash transfers and documentation such as birth certificates and postal IDs.
“We’re being thorough in our preparations, addressing both grassroots and upper level management challenges. We’re way past the experiment stage as far as Bangsamoro autonomy is concerned and our goal is to make everything work and succeed.”
A long journey
ACCORDING to Oreta, the creation of the BARMM is the first step of the peace process with the Moro.
The recent government plan to revive the centuries-old barter at the border areas of Mindanao, Malaysia and Indonesia is another positive step. It even has the gender component, because women in Sulu, Basilan and Tawi-Tawi make a living by trading Philippine and Malaysian essential goods.
Oreta said it must be emphasized that the Mindanao issue in the beginning is about Muslim independence, which “warped” in the present-day MNLF. Both the MILF and the MNLF originally sought secession but later on agreed to autonomy.
On the other hand, the “CPP has splintered,” she said.
“One is the CPLA [Cordillera People’s Liberation Army], which signed a cease-fire agreement with the government in 1986 but a memorandum of agreement on the cessation of hostilities was only signed in 2011, meaning from 1987 to 2010, the group was still armed,” she explained.
While the government or the military can pounce upon the reported “rift” in the leadership of the CPP-NPA-NDF, experience with the MNLF and MILF has shown that a split within the revolutionary organization does not necessarily lead to conflict resolution. What it has shown is that addressing the root cause, however complicated, remains the viable solution.
And someone has to make sure that the peace process will continue, Oreta said.
“That role is well within the government, and local government unit is the convergence point, its role [being] to bring together and synchronize the efforts of different agencies, [as] the LGU is the face of the government in its whole-government approach.”
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