From the Asian Correspondent (Nov 25):
The Philippine Left and the 2016 elections
Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte is throwing his hat into the presidential derby and he is making the 5-corenered race a close call.Pic by Edwin Espejo
THE Philippine Left has always considered elections as a panacea and a cosmetic political exercise to address the basic ills of society. It sees the election as a non-violent means to resolve contradictions among the ruling elite.
As a matter of principle and policy, the Underground Left – meaning the Communist Party of the Philippines, the New People’s Army and the National Democratic Front – will never participate in a ‘bourgeois’ election.
But the tactical error in the 1986 snap presidential election that the CPP-NPA-NDF boycotted led to the chagrin of their leaders in the open mass movement. The boycott proved to be costly as it was left in the fringes of government immediately after the Marcos dictatorship.
With the opening up of the democratic space as a result of the EDSA popular uprising, the Left supported, if not organized, a political party and fielded progressive candidates from the ranks of its allies and leaders in the legal front.
Officially however, the CPP-NPA-NDF still did participate as it was still an illegal organization trying to strike a peace deal with the Corazon Aquino administration.
The results of the 1987 elections for the revived Philippine Congress proved to be less encouraging for the Left. It lost all its candidates that ran for the Philippine Senate under Partido ng Bayan while winning only two seats at the House of Representatives.
The Partido ng Bayan has since been dissolved and the Left continued to ignore the Philippine elections until 2001 when its allies first ran for party list representatives in Congress and won the maximum three seats allowed by garnering over 1.7 million votes.
Buoyed by the success of Bayan Muna, the progressive Left expanded its party-list base to include Anakpawis in 2003. It further widened to include Gabriela, Kabataan and Alliance of Concerned Teachers and improved the number of its party list representatives to seven in the 2013 elections.
In between, Bayan Muna and the coalition of allied party list organizations – the Makabayan – attempted to forge formal alliance with mainstream political parties and there had been informal tactical cooperation with individual candidates for national posts.
Senators Grace Poe (left) and Francis ‘Chiz’ Escudero are front runners in next year’s general election. Pic: Edwin Espejo.
In 2010, Satur Ocampo and Lisa Maza were included in the line-up of the Nacionalista Party which fielded Manny Villar as its presidential candidate despite sharing the same slate with Ferdinand Marcos Jr who won as a senator.
Ocampo and Maza landed nowhere near the top 12 and lost, as did Villar.
Humbled by the failed experiment in forging formal alliance with established and mainstream political parties, then outgoing Bayan Muna Rep. Teddy Casiño decided to run for senator as an independent in 2013.
Casiño however also lost although he scored high in the emerging social media community.
Close call
The 2016 elections will probably go down as the closest presidential race in the post-Marcos era.
With five viable candidates vying for the country’s top position, a plurality of 30 percent of the total votes cast for the president could mean victory, in which case, the Philippines will again have a ‘minority’ president.
The entry of Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte in the presidential race to crowd Vice President Jejomar Binay, former Aquino cabinet secretary Mar Roxas, senators Grace Poe and Miriam Santiago is giving the Left opportunity as well as debate where and how it should conduct its alliance work.
The Left has, at one point or another, had and continues to have tactical alliance and political relationship with Binay, Poe and Duterte. Roxas’ father, the late Senator Gerardo Roxas, was also a known ally during the anti-dictatorship struggle.
His son Mar Roxas however has not manifested the same attitude towards the Left. On the contrary, his political base and operators are known to be rabid anti-Left. Only Santiago did not have known and established relationship with the Left – both above ground and underground.
If the left were not so successful in forging tactical and working alliance with presidential candidates in the past, they seem to be the unintended beneficiaries of next year’s election.
With last term Bayan Muna party list Rep. Neri Colmenares the first to be announced as part of the senatorial line-up of the Grace Poe-Chiz Escudero tandem, it gives the impression that Makabayan will give its all-out support to the leading pair.
But Binay’s past relations with Bayan Muna and its allied organizations in Makati is something also worth looking into. Bear in mind that Binay has not issued any statement that would indicate he has beef with the Left.
Erstwhile presidential front runner and Vice president Jejomar Binay has slipped down in the survey. Pic: Edwin Espejo.
The Duterte ‘problem’
Then there is Duterte. Duterte is one of the very few local government officials who openly flaunted his ‘friendship’ with the Communist Party of the Philippines, offering slots to his slate in the election to known mass leaders in Davao City with leftist orientation.
It began in 1992 when the late Erasto ‘Nonoy’ Librado, then the Mindanao secretary general of Kilusang Mayo Uno, and Gabriela’s Nenen Orcullo were included in former Lakas ng Dabaw slate for the city council. Both won.
That tradition continued until 2013 and it appears it will go on again next year.
In all likelihood, the Left will have space in any of Binay, Poe or Duterte presidency.
Should Roxas win and his core of ‘yellow brigade’ continuing to hold sway in the political front, the allies of the Left could be marginalized.
But Roxas’ impetuous character and unabashed defense of his class origin could play into the CPP-NPA-NDF’s recruitment campaign.
Unlike Binay, Poe and Duterte, Roxas may not be in the mood to pursue peace negotiations and the war in the countryside could escalate, further polarizing the country. His indecisiveness will likewise give rise to the hawks in government who see the crushing of the communist insurgents as the ultimate objective of governance.
It could turn bloody but it will galvanize the position of the Left that the only viable option for all encompassing change in the Philippine society is armed struggle.
The Left attraction
What makes the Left attractive to all presidential candidates with a good shot at winning is its base of 4.3 million command votes which, in a close election, could become a decisive factor.
By accumulating and consolidating its electoral base over the years, the Left, while still incapable of winning a Senate seat let alone the presidency by itself, is now in the position of being able to sway and tilt the balance in the expected close presidential race next year.
No wonder Poe pulled the gun first by recruiting Colmenares into her Senate slate. In 2013, both Poe and Escudero courted the Left vote, running as independents but accepting guest roles in the coalition party led by Aquino’s Liberal Party.
Poe’s adoption of Colmenares came when Duterte had just announced he was then not running for president.
But with Duterte throwing his lot into the presidential race, the Left may be facing a dilemma in coalition building and alliance work.
Between Poe and Duterte, the latter has proven his consistency and has a long track record of accommodating the Left. He has in fact taken up issues propounded by the militants as his own.
His open support for negotiated political settlement with the communist insurgents is hard to dismiss as against Poe’s adoption of Colmenares and their very brief but still untested ties.
But it will not appear good if the Left will urge its forces and allies who have already made commitment to Poe. On the other hand, neither is it appealing not to support Duterte with whom it has a long history of political and personal links.
But with Duterte, the Left could extend its coalition and alliance work far beyond its political ties with the Davao City mayor.
It can revive and solidify its alliance with Manny Villar and the Nacionalista Party to add to Duterte’s PDP-Laban. Duterte is himself expected to get support from the majority of the Nationalist People’s Coalition. And if he can prove his ability to win, former President Joseph Estrada may decide to shift support for him.
If that happens, Poe and Escudero could end up without a political machinery. Nobody has won the Philippine presidency while running as independent.
Duterte, who in the 1st week of September before he first announced he is not running reportedly only has P60 million in campaign funds, is also not lacking in financial supporters.
He has admitted that aside from Villar, also expressing their willingness to give financial support to his p[residential bid are billionaire Enrique Razon of ICTSI, Lucio Tan of Philippine Airlines, Lucio Co of Puregold and even Gabby Lopez of ABS-CBN.
The possibility of being able to become a formidable and tilting force in the presidential election is both appealing and challenging for the Left.
The Poe-Duterte debate aside, the Left is in the best position to be a major factor in the presidential election for the first time ever.
http://www.asiancorrespondent.com/2015/11/the-philippine-left-and-the-2016-elections/
