Posted to Australia Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) News (Mar 15,, 2023):Analysis: China is determined to thwart AUKUS, driven by distrust and fear of a US nuclear build-up (By East Asia correspondent Bill Birtles)
China intends to lobby other countries to thwart the AUKUS submarine deal.(Reuters: Greg Baker/ABC)
China has made no secret of its plans to diplomatically thwart Australia's AUKUS submarine plan, which it sees as part of a broader US effort to contain China's future military dominance of Asia.
Beijing's mission to the United Nations yesterday slammed the announcement that Australia will obtain several American nuclear-powered submarines as part of the deal, saying it "fuels arms races and hurts peace and stability".
But rhetoric aside, China's real strategy is focused on stifling the submarine plan at the world's nuclear watchdog body in what will likely be a long-term effort to win over other member states.
So far, China's diplomats are losing the battle, fuelling increasing frustration.
China has the world's biggest navy, including at least 12 nuclear-powered submarines, with a quicker production capacity than the US and its allies.
China has made no secret of its plans to diplomatically thwart Australia's AUKUS submarine plan, which it sees as part of a broader US effort to contain China's future military dominance of Asia.
Beijing's mission to the United Nations yesterday slammed the announcement that Australia will obtain several American nuclear-powered submarines as part of the deal, saying it "fuels arms races and hurts peace and stability".
But rhetoric aside, China's real strategy is focused on stifling the submarine plan at the world's nuclear watchdog body in what will likely be a long-term effort to win over other member states.
So far, China's diplomats are losing the battle, fuelling increasing frustration.
China has the world's biggest navy, including at least 12 nuclear-powered submarines, with a quicker production capacity than the US and its allies.
And not long after the AUKUS plan was first announced in 2021, Beijing launched a vigorous diplomatic campaign at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), arguing the plan blatantly breached the nuclear non-proliferation treaty.
The problem for Beijing is that it doesn't.
However, the deal does set a precedent that some analysts fear could be exploited by countries intent on using the cover of nuclear propulsion to secretly develop weapons.
China's diplomats have so far failed to convince IAEA chief Rafael Mariano Grossi, who has expressed satisfaction that consultations between his agency and the AUKUS nations are in line with the treaty.
In a statement released late on Tuesday, Grossi said Australia had provided the IAEA with preliminary design information about the project, and noted that the agency "must ensure that no proliferation risks will emanate from this project".
"I will ensure a transparent process that will be solely guided by the agency’s statutory mandate and the safeguards agreements and additional protocols of the AUKUS parties," his statement said.
China may find sympathetic ears in a region that is increasingly worried about a broader military build-up.(US Indo-Pacific Command)
"Nuclear submarines are a highly secretive military platform; it's very hard to provide basic transparency to IEAE or other inspecting parties to show them how things are done," said Zhao Tong, a senior fellow in the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"So that high secrecy over nuclear submarines might create opportunities for countries like China to raise questions about whether there is any theoretical possibility for misuse of the nuclear technology."
The US-UK plan to transfer highly enriched uranium and reactor technology to Australia for the submarines has also prompted claims of double standards, given America's efforts to prevent other countries from transferring nuclear materials in recent decades.
"Nuclear submarines are a highly secretive military platform; it's very hard to provide basic transparency to IEAE or other inspecting parties to show them how things are done," said Zhao Tong, a senior fellow in the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"So that high secrecy over nuclear submarines might create opportunities for countries like China to raise questions about whether there is any theoretical possibility for misuse of the nuclear technology."
The US-UK plan to transfer highly enriched uranium and reactor technology to Australia for the submarines has also prompted claims of double standards, given America's efforts to prevent other countries from transferring nuclear materials in recent decades.
Why is the AUKUS submarine pact such a big deal?
China's anti-AUKUS campaign is driven by genuine paranoia
While China's diplomats are struggling to argue any rules are being breached, they are, at the very least, trying to convince other countries that the spirit of nuclear non-proliferation is being trashed.
China's ambassador to the IAEA, Li Song, said this month that the AUKUS plan was a "textbook case of nuclear proliferation that runs against the objective and purpose" of efforts to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.
Australia's neighbours, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, have already expressed concerns about the plan, although not outright opposition.
"Indonesia expects Australia to remain consistent in fulfilling its obligations under the [nuclear proliferation treaty] and IAEA safeguards, as well as to develop with the IAEA a verification mechanism that is effective, transparent and non - discriminatory," Indonesia's foreign ministry said in a statement on Tuesday.
While China's diplomats are struggling to argue any rules are being breached, they are, at the very least, trying to convince other countries that the spirit of nuclear non-proliferation is being trashed.
China's ambassador to the IAEA, Li Song, said this month that the AUKUS plan was a "textbook case of nuclear proliferation that runs against the objective and purpose" of efforts to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.
Australia's neighbours, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, have already expressed concerns about the plan, although not outright opposition.
"Indonesia expects Australia to remain consistent in fulfilling its obligations under the [nuclear proliferation treaty] and IAEA safeguards, as well as to develop with the IAEA a verification mechanism that is effective, transparent and non - discriminatory," Indonesia's foreign ministry said in a statement on Tuesday.
The Australian government will take three US Virginia-class submarines early next decade, with an option to purchase another two, while jointly developing a new class with both the US and the UK.(Reuters: Leah Millis)
China's efforts to cast Australia as an irresponsible nation flouting global norms might find receptive ears in a region increasingly worried about a broader military build-up.
That pressure, just as much as the huge long-term cost and uncertain political commitment by future US administrations, might slow down or even scuttle the submarine program.
"I think Chinese diplomats are mainly using nuclear non-proliferation as a tool to create obstacles for this program to materialise," Dr Zhao said.
"But given the serious strategic distrust in China towards the US and Australia, I think there is genuine paranoia in China about the real agenda behind this cooperation.
"Some experts appear genuinely worried that the US is creating this program to open up the possibility of Australia gradually pursuing nuclear weapon capability."
Meanwhile, China is working on its own nuclear build-up
Whether Chinese concerns about nuclear weapons development are genuinely held or not, it's clearly not in Beijing's interests for Australia to possess submarines that can travel further.
China's leader Xi Jinping this week pledged that the nation's armed forces need to be "a great wall of steel that effectively safeguards national sovereignty, security and development interests".
Those interests spread from Taiwan to disputed reefs in the South China Sea and potentially throughout the Indian and Pacific oceans as China's economic and military presence grows.
Xi's government this month announced yet another annual funding boost for the military and reiterated — indirectly — a goal of taking control of the self-ruled island Taiwan as part of a so-called "great rejuvenation" before 2049.
"Our observations show whenever Chinese aircraft — especially strategic bombers along with fighters — pass through Taiwan's south-west Air Defence Identification Zone and, especially, through the Bashi channel between Taiwan and the Philippines, it also means, simultaneously, there are Chinese submarine activities too," Sun Yat-sen university military expert Kuo Yujen said.
China's efforts to cast Australia as an irresponsible nation flouting global norms might find receptive ears in a region increasingly worried about a broader military build-up.
That pressure, just as much as the huge long-term cost and uncertain political commitment by future US administrations, might slow down or even scuttle the submarine program.
"I think Chinese diplomats are mainly using nuclear non-proliferation as a tool to create obstacles for this program to materialise," Dr Zhao said.
"But given the serious strategic distrust in China towards the US and Australia, I think there is genuine paranoia in China about the real agenda behind this cooperation.
"Some experts appear genuinely worried that the US is creating this program to open up the possibility of Australia gradually pursuing nuclear weapon capability."
Meanwhile, China is working on its own nuclear build-up
Whether Chinese concerns about nuclear weapons development are genuinely held or not, it's clearly not in Beijing's interests for Australia to possess submarines that can travel further.
China's leader Xi Jinping this week pledged that the nation's armed forces need to be "a great wall of steel that effectively safeguards national sovereignty, security and development interests".
Those interests spread from Taiwan to disputed reefs in the South China Sea and potentially throughout the Indian and Pacific oceans as China's economic and military presence grows.
Xi's government this month announced yet another annual funding boost for the military and reiterated — indirectly — a goal of taking control of the self-ruled island Taiwan as part of a so-called "great rejuvenation" before 2049.
"Our observations show whenever Chinese aircraft — especially strategic bombers along with fighters — pass through Taiwan's south-west Air Defence Identification Zone and, especially, through the Bashi channel between Taiwan and the Philippines, it also means, simultaneously, there are Chinese submarine activities too," Sun Yat-sen university military expert Kuo Yujen said.
The Chinese government has announced yet another annual funding boost for the military.(Reuters: Jason Lee)
The prospect of the US and its allies militarily intervening in a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan is seen as the biggest deterrent for Xi making a move.
Some experts argue that, if the 2049 deadline is correct, Australia's play for eight new submarines will be too little, too late to add any substantial deterrent.
However, some in Taiwan say this move is symbolic of a rivalry bigger than just Taiwan.
"To me, this is all part of broader hegemonic competition between China the US," Professor Kuo said, adding that most Chinese submarine activity detected near Taiwan is believed to be practising to target the US territory of Guam.
"I don't buy the argument of any type of timeline or deadline for China to invade Taiwan."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-15/why-china-is-determined-to-disrupt-aukus-plans/102087586
The prospect of the US and its allies militarily intervening in a Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan is seen as the biggest deterrent for Xi making a move.
Some experts argue that, if the 2049 deadline is correct, Australia's play for eight new submarines will be too little, too late to add any substantial deterrent.
However, some in Taiwan say this move is symbolic of a rivalry bigger than just Taiwan.
"To me, this is all part of broader hegemonic competition between China the US," Professor Kuo said, adding that most Chinese submarine activity detected near Taiwan is believed to be practising to target the US territory of Guam.
"I don't buy the argument of any type of timeline or deadline for China to invade Taiwan."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-15/why-china-is-determined-to-disrupt-aukus-plans/102087586
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.