(UPDATED) One of the least likely scenarios is passing the bill and providing for a longer transition period
What will happen
if Congress fails to pass the proposed Bangsamoro basic law (BBL)? Will war
once again erupt in Mindanao ? Is there no
other option?
With only a year
left before the administration of President Benigno Aquino III ends, the
passage of the proposed Bangsamoro basic law (BBL) in Congress remains
uncertain.
A tipping point
was reached when the Mamasapano clash, which killed 67 Filipinos, eroded the
political capital of the President and unleashed many reservations about the
controversial bill.
The Senate
deadline was moved to October just as 12 senators signed the committee report concluding that the
BBL is unconstitutional, indicating that the Senate would push for major revisions.
Senator Ferdinand Marcos Jr has gone to the extent of saying he will file a new bill that is
substantially different from what is being deliberated.
Over at the House of Representatives, House Majority Leader Neptali Gonzales
II admitted passing the bill now is a “cause for concern.” After the bill was
passed in the committee, House members were accused of allegedly railroading its approval.
Yet the BBL
continues to enjoy wide support in core areas, a Social
Weather Stations survey released in May showed. (READ: #AnimatED: Law should trump violence)
What are the
scenarios as the bill faces uncertain support in Congress, constitutional
issues, and a tight timeline?
ARMED STRUGGLE. File photo of Moro Islamic Liberation Front combatants in the rebel's stronghold, Camp Darapanan. Photo by Amiel Meneses/EPA
1. Congress fails
to pass the BBL and a fallout among rebels follows
If the House and
the Senate fail to pass the BBL, the status quo would remain – the Autonomous
Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) would stay in place and the same regional
posts would be available for contention in the 2016 elections.
MILF combatants
would also not decommission their firearms.
Although the MILF
leadership has committed to stay the course of peace and continue
pushing for the passage of the BBL in the next administration, we are
considering a scenario where frustrated members would defect to radical groups.
In a hearing at
the House of Representatives in April, MILF chief negotiator Mohagher Iqbal
warned that “uncertainty will give way to lawlessness in Mindanao ”
if the BBL is not passed. Not a few lawmakers criticized the MILF for such
statements, calling them a form of blackmail.
These statements
are not without context, however.
When the Supreme
Court declared an initial agreement between the Arroyo administration and the
MILF on ancestral domains unconstitutional in 2008, the late Umra Kato broke away from the MILF and formed the more radical
Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF).
The BIFF has
reportedly pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in Iraq
Government chief
negotiator Miriam Coronel-Ferrer said in an April press conference that the
radicalization towards ISIS-like groups is a “real threat.”
“It is a
religion-based ideology that would be more intractable, or more difficult and
very, very bloody if you go through the history of religious wars,” she said.
Before this could
happen, there is, however, some hope for contingencies.
DEBATES. House ad hoc committee chair, Cagayan De Oro representative Rufus Rodriguez, gets ready as the House opens the period of interpellation on the Bangsamoro Basic Law at the second regular session of the 16th Congress at the House of Representatives in Quezon City on Tuesday, June 2. Photo by Ben Nabong/Rappler
2. The peace
panels agree to postpone the BBL and pass it on to the next administration
The worst
scenario for the MILF, Iqbal said in a March forum, is for Congress to pass a law
that is not consistent with the peace deal signed in March 2014, or worse, results in a weaker autonomous region.
The next best option,
aside from passing a “good BBL”, is to defer deliberations to the next
administration.
It is an option
that an adviser to the MILF has presented to the organization.
Lawyer Naguib
Sinarimbo, former ARMM executive secretary, said he advised the MILF central
committee to be honest with their counterparts in the government peace panel in
cautioning them from proceeding with the BBL if the measure that is shaping up
in Congress does not fulfill the peace accord.
Sinarimbo said
mechanisms created under the peace process would be sufficient to address these
contingencies.
After all, the
Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) was signed and is still
binding. The peace panels from both sides were also not disbanded.
“What we hope is
that the new architecture of the peace process can hold without... violence,”
Sinarimbo said on the sidelines of an experts forum organized by the Institute of Autonomy
“So far, [with]
the discipline that the troops of MILF is showing, it seems that the MILF can
(control all its members on the ground), but we don't know really. It's
unchartered territory. We can't predict what will happen,” Sinarimbo said.
The Senate is
likely to make major revisions to the BBL after Santiago
Meanwhile, the MILF said it “appreciates” but “does not necessarily accept”
the changes introduced by the House of Representatives in the law.
Aquino wants the
law passed under his term to ensure its implementation. Civil society
organizations backing the BBL are also pushing for the law to be approved
before Aquino steps down from office.
With an October
deadline set in the Senate, however, it might be up to the next administration
to implement most parts of the peace deal, including programs for the return of
rebels to mainstream life.
The biggest
danger in pursuing this track is the uncertainty on whether the next
administration would honor the peace deal.
Ateneo School of
Government Dean Antonio la Viña urged the government and the MILF to explore
the possibility of crafting a “transition agreement.”
“I actually think
that a BBL that is owned by the next president is much better than a BBL owned
by this president,” La Viña said during the experts’ forum.
“We’re better off
taking our time and really getting this right than pushing a law that is worse
than what we have here. That should be an option,” he added.
DILUTION. Hundreds of supporters of the Bangsamoro Basic Law rally at the gates of the House of Representatives in Quezon City on Monday, May 11 2015, as they call for the immediate passage of the law in Congress. Photo by Ben Nabong/Rappler
3. Congress
passes the BBL but waters it down
If Congress
passes a law that is weaker than the current ARMM, the MILF is likely to reject
it.
Such a situation
would result in a repeat of what happened in 2001, when the MILF’s rival group,
the Moro National Liberation Front, boycotted the plebiscite after insisting
that the amended ARMM law rendered the supposedly enhanced regional government
less autonomous.
Sinarimbo said
the MILF could even be forced to campaign for a no vote, similar to what
happened in the past.
Both the Senate
and House leaders have been adamant in saying that the BBL will not pass
unchanged in Congress, especially with grave constitutional issues surrounding
it. Other stakeholders in the process, including ARMM employees, local government officials, indigenous peoples and the traditional sultanates, also want
their concerns incorporated in the BBL.
Already, the MILF
said that some amendments introduced by the House on mineral resources and the
inclusion of the Indigenous Peoples’ Rights Act violate the peace accord. The government peace panel meanwhile took the view that the House
retained the most important parts of the bill.
Passing a law
that is acceptable to all sides should not be taken lightly, said former
Basilan Representative Gerry Salapuddin, a provincial commander of the MNLF
before joining politics.
“I don’t think
the Moro mujahideens would accept their fate to be cheated twice. In other
words, from the MILF to the MNLF, if in case this one will still fail, it’s not
only going to be a recipe for disaster but it might be the glue that will
reunite all the different factions of the MILF to continue the struggle not
anymore for autonomy but – even if I don’t have to tell you this but I guess
you will be guessing the same as I do – for independence,” Salapuddin said.
One option that
could be considered to expedite the process under the Aquino administration,
Salapuddin said, is to amend the ARMM law and incorporate all the “pertinent and
applicable” provisions of the Tripoli Agreement of 1976 during the Marcos
regime, the 1996 peace agreement between the MNLF and government, the
Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro between the MILF and the government
and the proposed Bangsamoro basic law.
Sulu Governor
Abdusakur Tan II also made a similar proposal to amend the ARMM law during the
Senate committee hearing on Wednesday, June 3.
The
implementation of what was agreed upon in the peace deal is also tied up with
the staggered decommissioning of rebel firearms.
A certain
percentage of rebel firearms will be turned over after the proposed BBL is
passed in Congress and ratified in a plebiscite (30%); when the Bangsamoro
government and the Bangsamoro police is created (35%); and when the exit
agreement is signed (35%) after the establishment of the Bangsamoro government.
It remains to be
seen whether the MILF would decommission if all the milestones as envisioned in
the peace deal are not achieved.
NEXT GENERATION. Muslim groups rally at the gates of the House of Representatives in Quezon City on Monday, June 1, to thank the House ad hoc committee members who voted yes for the Bangsamoro Basic Law. Photo by Ben Nabong/Rappler
4. Pass the BBL
and provide for a longer transition period
This is perhaps
one of the least likely scenarios for the BBL.
Salapuddin said
he was one of those who wrote the House ad hoc committee on the BBL to consider
increasing the duration of the MILF-led transition body to 3 years.
This would give
the MILF-led body enough space to prove their capacity for leadership,
Salapuddin said.
“I wonder what
can they do (with the remaining time)? If they fail, we will again blame them,”
he said. “If Congress will give another failed experiment, do not expect the
Bangsamoro to produce miracles,” he added.
With the new
October deadline at the Senate, the transition body is left with less than 6
months to govern before the 2016 elections as the bill will still have be
ratified in a plebiscite. Opponents are also expected to question it before the
Supreme Court.
Lawmakers
deliberating the law should learn from the experience of current ARMM Governor
Mujiv Hataman, who took 2 years to finish the reorganization of the regional
government, Salapuddin said. “And yet he was not creating a new entity,” he
added.
Under the BBL,
the autonomous regional government would shift from a unitary, presidential
form towards a parliamentary form with more functions.
Akbayan
Representative Ibarra Gutierrez said the possibility for a longer transition
period was “floated as an option” in discussions but there is “no critical
mass” supporting it so far.
“Maybe the better
version is to amend or prolong the process, go back to the drawing board –
abandon the BBL since you still have the CAB. But that has its own risks. We
don’t know what will be the attitude of the next administration,” Gutierrez
said. Akbayan is an administration ally.
The period of
transition can be discussed but what is of paramount important is the content
of the law, Sinarimbo said.
“The law is
long-term. It will create institutions. It would be difficult to change them if
they turn out to be ineffective,” he said.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.