Policy paralysis and delays to Bangsamoro Basic Law likely after fighting between police and militants in Philippines

From IHS Jane's 360 (Feb 12): Policy paralysis and delays to Bangsamoro Basic Law likely after fighting between police and militants in Philippines



President Benigno Aquino III speaks in front of the caskets of 44 members of the Philippine National Police Special Action Force (PNP-SAF) inside the Camp Bagong Diwa in Taguig City, the Philippines, on 30 January 2015. The officers were killed in an operation to arrest two men. Source: PA

Key Points

• Senate Majority leader and one of the Bangsamoro Basic Law's authors, Alan Peter Cayetano, has withdrawn support for the Bangsamoro Basic Law, as President Aquino has been blamed for the incident, signalling fierce public opposition to the granting of further concessions to the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.
• Although it is unlikely that Aquino will be impeached over this given his control over both houses in Congress, he is likely to expend his political capital on passing the Bangsamoro Basic Law, which increases the risk that major policy changes and the passage of crucial economic bills will be stalled during the remainder of his presidency.
• Delays to the Bangsamoro Basic Law's passage, resulting in consequent delays to the Bangsamoro plebiscite and the elections (originally scheduled to coincide with national elections in 2016) will increase risks of the derailment of peace in Mindanao, jeopardising the longer-term security outlook.

EVENT

Calls have intensified for President Benigno Aquino's resignation over an operation in which 44 SAF troopers were killed.

On 26 January, Senator Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr. suspended Senate hearings on the Bangsamoro Basic Law following the 25 January encounter between the Special Action Force (SAF) police commandos and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) rebels in Mamasapano, Maguindanao, in which 44 SAF troops died.

A public outcry has emerged over the deaths of the troops, with the public demanding to know why the police officers were authorised to conduct a surprise raid into heavily MILF-fortified territory to begin with, and why these troops were not adequately reinforced by army personnel. Details are still emerging, but it appears that the 55th SAF Company blocking force and the 84th SAF Company seaborne unit were sent in to arrest Zulkifli bin Hir ("Marwan") and Basit Usman on suspicion of links to terrorist groups and making bombs, when they encountered the 105th Base Command of the MILF, which claims it was not notified of the operation.

The Philippine Army's 6th Infantry Division claims Marwan was sheltered in Tukanalipao village by Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) and fighting occurred when police strayed into MILF territory. The government claims Marwan was successfully killed, but it appears Usman escaped.

Malacañang, the presidential office, has stated that Aquino will not resign over the incident. Nevertheless, Aquino's political legacy is inextricably tied to peace in Mindanao, and he is likely to spend the remainder of his presidency focused on the Bangsamoro Basic Law's passage. Greater policy paralysis is accordingly expected, especially as Aquino is likely to expend his political capital defending himself over this incident. Interior Secretary and Aquino's Liberal Party's likely presidential party nominee, Mar Roxas, has also been asked to appear before the Senate committee tasked with investigating the incident, while Vice-President Jejomar Binay is separately being questioned by the Senate Blue Ribbon sub-committee, which is tasked with investigating wrongdoings in government and its agencies.

With key political players otherwise occupied, there is an increased risk that not all priority bills pending before Congress, namely the Customs Modernization Act, National Land Use Act, Tax Incentives Management and Transparency Act, Anti-trust Act, and the Build-Operate-Transfer Law, are likely to be passed before Aquino steps down. Most crucial for foreign investors is Senate Bill 2517, which eases restrictions on foreign investment in manufacturing, construction and public works projects etc, to drive industrialisation and prepare Philippines for the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The more controversial House Bill No. 5367, which rationalises mining revenue sharing schemes, is heavily opposed by industry and therefore unlikely to be passed soon.

The peace process is also at risk. Peace will require a strong government able to convince the Filipino public of its merits and push the Bangsamoro Basic Law through Congress in its current form, which is unlikely in a climate where politicians are more inclined to play to public sentiment in an election cycle. Strong political leadership on the MILF's part is also critical to secure support for the Bangsamoro entity among Mindanao's ethnically diverse constituents. It will also have to resist spoiler attacks by armed Islamic militant rebels opposed to the peace process, namely the BIFF, the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), and the Abu Sayaf Group (ASG) and bring them to the negotiating table. A strong government-MILF working relationship is further critical to any decommissioning scenario, and the MILF's bona fides have already been called into question for harbouring and potentially aiding and abetting BIFF in the incident. Initial statements by MILF chairperson Mohagher Iqbal, that MILF remains a "revolutionary organisation" pending the implementation of the peace agreement, are alarming, and further fractures are likely when public calls for the arrest of MILF rebels intensifies and the MILF resists.

The Bangsamoro Basic Law was initially intended to be passed by end 2014/early 2015, leaving sufficient time for the MILF to disarm, begin party-building, and move from being a rebel group to a credible political party before the Bangsamoro elections in June 2016. The March 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) (the peace agreement between the government and the MILF) stipulates that once the Bangsamoro Basic Law is passed, it will be ratified in a Bangsamoro plebiscite, where residents of the existing Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao will vote on their inclusion in the new Bangsamoro political entity. Upon ratification, the MILF-led Bangsamoro Transition Authority (BTA) will serve as an interim government until the election of Bangsamoro officials in 2016. This was originally designed to coincide with the 2016 national elections, to ensure the peace process is completed before the next president's term.

FORECAST

If the Bangsamoro Basic Law is only passed in 2016 there is a risk that the entire roadmap - a plebiscite, Bangsamoro elections, followed by the decommissioning/disarming of the MILF by 2016 - will be derailed, increasing the risks that the peace initiative will fail. A more likely (and more precarious) scenario is if delays to the roadmap result in the MILF-led BTA remaining indefinitely as an 'interim' government, under a new president who may not share Aquino's views on peace. Security risks will then emerge if the MILF becomes a quasi-government/part rebel group that never fully disarms. Questions over the non-elected BTA's authority will then give Islamist rebel groups greater pretext to stage attacks to destabilise the BTA, increasing the terrorism risk outlook in Mindanao in the longer term.

http://www.janes.com/article/48968/policy-paralysis-and-delays-to-bangsamoro-basic-law-likely-after-fighting-between-police-and-militants-in-philippines